A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[CanadianNaturist]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's "character driven" in that: The Great Secret of the Success of the MCU is The General Audience Cares About the Characters.

 

IMO and others, at least.

 

Calling it "character driven" might be a misnomer, but I do think this is more true than not when it comes to why the MCU succeeded so much where other attempts failed.

 

Honestly most people dont really care for a lot of MCU characters, as much as they know it’s a reliable brand for fun entertainment. 
 

That’s why even movies with unlikeable characters still make around a billion. 
 

They have the branding on point. 

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

remember

also remember

 

off-topic but it always makes me laugh.

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

36 seems like

 36+ 16 (like our tracking thread thought was more likely) or 17 - aka, 52 or 53...

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, CanadianNaturist said:

Honestly most people dont really care for a lot of MCU characters, as much as they know it’s a reliable brand for fun entertainment. 
 

That’s why even movies with unlikeable characters still make around a billion. 
 

They have the branding on point. 

That just makes me think you didn’t get why the films resonate so much everywhere you go on social media. You are free to not like them. I mean, I never cared about Harry Potter and today even more so. But that they build up likable characters that are beloved to this day is obvious.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Cap said:

If anyone wants to know how the MCU is character driven; you can look at my fan fiction head canons. Those characters live rent free in my mind. 

It’s a whole legion of Caps out there. You really should play Midnight Suns btw. Don’t let the clunky ugly graphics fool you, it’s the first superhero sim, I just wish you could go all Mass Effect with them but Marvel wouldn’t go that far. 
 

Also, Marvel Snap. Legit great.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[CanadianNaturist]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Idk I said this earlier in the thread but people keep linking this back to Avatar and Titanic and well...the world's different now. Legs are different. This could end up as a TGM with an insane 5x multiplier but it's just a lot harder in this day and age, especially for a sequel. I wouldn't just cite Titanic and Avatar 1 as sure things for Way of Water.

Except for one very important factor. Many regular folks are waiting until the next two weeks to see it with their families over the holidays. 
 

I honestly had no idea where people were getting 170-200 million OW from. I figured the high end for the last few months was going to be 140 million OW and it’d leg out a lot over the following few weeks and end up around 660 million. 
 

And that was even before I realized there is no competition for 5 weeks until AntMan is released. 

Now that we know WoM is extremely positive, I can see having a great run. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 36+ 16 (like our tracking thread thought was more likely) or 17 - aka, 52 or 53...

Pretty good. It’s gonna pile up a lot of money over the next few weeks. 

[Reddroast]

Just now, CanadianNaturist said:

Except for one very important factor. Many regular folks are waiting until the next two weeks to see it with their families over the holidays. 
 

I honestly had no idea where people were getting 170-200 million OW from. I figured the high end for the last few months was going to be 140 million OW and it’d leg out a lot over the following few weeks and end up around 660 million. 
 

And that was even before I realized there is no competition for 5 weeks until AntMan is released. 

Now that we know WoM is extremely positive, I can see having a great run. 

Deadline 

[The Dark Alfred]

Just came back from a 85% 2D showing. Crowd seemed to like it, expecting decent UK OD. Wouldn't read too much into its OW. A lot of people are waiting to see it in PLF over the holidays. I think its run will disappoint a lot of people lol Its not going to be the megahit fanboys hoping for, nor will be the flop haters want,. Gonna do solid, expected numbers. I know people like extremes haha

 

The way I see it unfolding: meltdown because of the relatively low OW, then big hopes after decent holiday holds, then it will fall sharply in January. Overall solid total.

Edited December 17, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[CanadianNaturist]

3 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

That just makes me think you didn’t get why the films resonate so much everywhere you go on social media. You are free to not like them. I mean, I never cared about Harry Potter and today even more so. But that they build up likable characters that are beloved to this day is obvious.

I never said I don’t like them, I’m always the first in line lol. 
 

i was just meaning that after two movies nobody cared for the MCU more than they did Avatar, and those characters have hundreds of chapters of backstory from the comics. 
 

 

[Mulder]

10 minutes ago, CanadianNaturist said:

Except for one very important factor. Many regular folks are waiting until the next two weeks to see it with their families over the holidays. 
 

I honestly had no idea where people were getting 170-200 million OW from. I figured the high end for the last few months was going to be 140 million OW and it’d leg out a lot over the following few weeks and end up around 660 million. 
 

And that was even before I realized there is no competition for 5 weeks until AntMan is released. 

Now that we know WoM is extremely positive, I can see having a great run. 

Let's look at some recent 2010s December era blockbusters' multis with good WOM which opened above 100 million-

TFA-3.78

Rogue One-3.43

NWH-3.1

 

Now let's just say for argument's sake Avatar 2 opens to 135 and apply those multis, it doesn't even get to 500 with those. Now I think it WILL pass 500 but if we were to purely go by recent history it getting close to 600 would be tough. That isn't to say it won't happen or can't happen, it could easily surprise, but going by recent history it's just not some sure bet.

 

EDIT: Oops with TFA's multi it gets to over 500, that's the scenario which I find the most realistic personally

Edited December 17, 2022 by Mulder

[CanadianNaturist]

15 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Also for people citing the family audience, I think Puss in Boots will take that more honestly. Way of Water's not family unfriendly but there's stuff I can't discuss in here because of spoilers that might make it not the preferred choice for families.

I’d say that if you’re family is 9-10 and up then it’s family friendly. Even with some of the more badass scenes in it. 

[ZeeSoh]

30 minutes ago, Cap said:

I don’t think he is allowed to!

 

that said, Hi, missed you, you should stay!

He is not banned or anything. He rage quit and proclaimed that he will never return. I hope he keeps his word but we will see if he is a hypocrite or not. 
 

Maybe he already has an alt or multiple alts, like the time he created multiple alts to rig forum ranking lists and have deep conversation with himself lol

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, CanadianNaturist said:

I never said I don’t like them, I’m always the first in line lol. 
 

i was just meaning that after two movies nobody cared for the MCU more than they did Avatar, and those characters have hundreds of chapters of backstory from the comics. 
 

 

I read comics my whole life. I hated Cap. Didn’t care about Iron Man. Thought that Thor was boring. It isn’t the comics. Sure, there are now several amazing comic book runs involving all of them (less so Iron Man, true) but it wasn’t just the comics. A lot of people that came to love these characters and actually read the comics before the films didn’t like most of these characters either.

[TwoMisfits]

Here's the thing about the next few weeks, just to ponder - what is Disney's DOM contract and what are the other movies offering for revenue splits for Xmas/NY/January corridor?

 

I'm sure Disney demanded all PLF and biggest auditorium for X weeks and a big revenue slice (65% was their big blockbuster norm, which was higher than everyone's - did they get that again this time, or even more?).  If this opens lowish enough, especially with the long length of the movie making only 3 shows a day/screen possible, might Puss in Boots or some holdover with a great deal (hi Violent Night, Devotion) spring a few unexpected screens away, thus limiting total possible revenue at many small-to-midsize sites for the holiday corridor?

 

Like how many shows will it be garnering per theater even next weekend?  I'm gonna be counting my 2 locals to see if they drop any for next Friday or stay with their "this weekend" plans...

 

 

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

He is not banned or anything. He rage quit and proclaimed that he will never return. I hope he keeps his word but we will see if he is a hypocrite or not. 
 

Maybe he already has an alt or multiple alts, like the time he created multiple alts to rig forum ranking lists and have deep conversation with himself lol

i remember someone mentioning that he has a discord with other notorious banned members on here. like the saddest legion of doom imaginable. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by CoolioD1

[CanadianNaturist]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Let's look at some recent 2010s December era blockbusters' multis with good WOM which opened above 100 million-

TFA-3.78

Rogue One-3.43

NWH-3.1

 

Now let's just say for argument's sake Avatar 2 opens to 135 and apply those multis, it doesn't even get to 500 with those. Now I think it WILL pass 500 but if we were to purely go by recent history it getting close to 600 would be tough. That isn't to say it won't happen or can't happen, it could easily surprise, but going by recent history it's just not some sure bet.

I mean I never really compared it to front loaded movies like those though. Maybe I should have, but Avatar just never struck me as the franchise the GA would line out the door for on opening day, especially because so many of the people who want to see the sequel to the first are older than fanboys. 
 

Hell I was going to wait until Dec 25 to see it with friends that we bought tickets for, but at the very last minute decided I wanted to see it OD as I knew I would have more than one repeat viewing. 

[Mulder]

Just now, CanadianNaturist said:

I mean I never really compared it to front loaded movies like those though. Maybe I should have, but Avatar just never struck me as the franchise the GA would line out the door for on opening day, especially because so many of the people who want to see the sequel to the first are older than fanboys. 
 

Hell I was going to wait until Dec 25 to see it with friends that we bought tickets for, but at the very last minute decided I wanted to see it OD as I knew I would have more than one repeat viewing. 

TFA was FAR from front-loaded though and also had a lot of older people turning out. TFA had a near-250 OW and legged out to over 900. 

 

EDIT: To elaborate a bit more, I just don't see any reason now to say Avatar 2'll perform better then TFA did. If next weekend it stays like flat from this weekend then sure yeah I was wrong. There's just nothing to prove that as of this moment.

Edited December 17, 2022 by Mulder

[CanadianNaturist]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

TFA was FAR from front-loaded though and also had a lot of older people tuning out. TFA had a near-250 OW and legged out to over 900. 

TFA had ridiculous hype and I know near me many people waited because they weren’t on enough screens. I wouldn’t compare TFA to Avatar 2 lol. They’ll play out totally differently. 
 

Edit: I don’t mean it’ll make more DOM than TFA, however I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s multiplier is better as it’s an IP that’s far less front loaded. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by CanadianNaturist

[thajdikt]

140M x 4 = 560M. At worst imo. 

[CJohn]

Under JWD OW. Under 600M DOM total. Might even go under 500M with normal legs. 

 

BOMB BOMB BOMB ALERT.