GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Seeing people on Reddit going “why don’t we get more movies like this”. Uh because nobody goes and sees them 

If everybody go and saw it twice like i did we get 400M and a sequel, let’s ask for a re-release 

 

Morbius get one, this also can 

[ThomasNicole]

We’ll have reviews for Indy in 12 days 

 

I would guess tickets will go on sale the same day 

 

If it’s great i can see it winning summer

[Maggie]

I think July is even more problematic than June. Too much competition. MI:DR better make good money OW. Legs will be shit

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

We’ll have reviews for Indy in 12 days 

 

I would guess tickets will go on sale the same day 

 

If it’s great i can see it winning summer

I don't know what to think about Indy anymore. A few weeks ago i thought big numbers, but now i'm not so sure anymore. Ford is just too old to appeal to people under 30

[John Marston]

Transformers will flop. Looks generic with no hook. Say what you want about Bay but his crazy action scenes were the main reasons the earlier Transformers did well. Otherwise they would have made numbers closers to GI Joe or even Power Rangers

Edited May 7, 2023 by John Marston

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

**cough** The Force Awakens **cough**

It has happened before. I personally had hoped it would stay under 50% and over the 20m mark, but many of us have tried to warn you over the past month that this was coming. 🤷‍♂️

I knkw this place is  ripe with revisionist history but TFA fell off a cliff?

Edited May 7, 2023 by screambaby

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Transformers will flop. Looks generic with no hook. Say what you want about Bay but his crazy action scenes were the main reasons the earlier Transformers did well. Otherwise they would have made numbers closers to GI Joe

Poor Anthony Ramos. Another flop after In The Heights.

[Valonqar]

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Seeing people on Reddit going “why don’t we get more movies like this”. Uh because nobody goes and sees them 

 

This. "perfect matinee 2000" = it's not 2000 anymore. Trends and tastes changed.

 

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is fair, like i said i do believe the likely scenario is good holds but not really stellar and 310M DOM (2.6x or so), so you’re right.
 

I think most of us are just thinking about possibilities tho, denying that with a possible 15% drop on SUN without any holiday like some people are doing seems a bit absurd.

 

I know the logical argument is compare it to other MCU titles, but let’s say it does reach 120M OW with actuals. That’s a ~6.9x IM and a completely different behavior than pretty much all other recent sequels. 
 

Projecting a similar different pattern going forward is very reasonable imo. 
 

And also i would argue this is the fun part of what we do, this is the first time in quite some time that there’s a lot of possible routes for how a MCU movie will perform and we can have fun making different projections.

 

Agreed. If 15% turns out to be true than it's going to be interesting to see what happens next. 

[ringedmortality]

I don't think D&D feels like it's from the 00s. Seems way more in line with early MCU stuff like Guardians.

Edited May 7, 2023 by ringedmortality

[vafrow]

43 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

June 2017 and 2018 were quite mad in terms of a new big release almost every week. 

 

If anything I'm surprised how quiet June 2024 is at the moment but that could easily change. 

 

Summer of 2017 has a lot of parallels to this year, with the caveat that there were a lot of films that had the expectation of being franchise starters/continuations and generally being in that realm of success, that fell flat on their face. Mummy, King Arthur, Alien Covenant, Baywatch.

 

Their failures gave space for Wonder Woman to leg out over the summer and become the biggest hit that period.

 

Nothing feels quite like that this year, where the gap between expectations and lower endb scenario feels that big. But, nothing really does until retrospect.

 

Can the bottom really fall out from Pixar much wors than Lightyear? Is there risk that Barbie can be a failure like Baywatch? I'm someone who's not fully sold on The Flash, but, I feel there's a pretty solid baseline that it will perform. If Rise of the Beasts does The Last Knight domestic numbers, I think that would be seen as a success.

 

 

 

 

[Deep Wang]

52 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Sure, but good script same modok design would get an A CS certified fresh 140M -> 350M kind of run.  
 

Same script exemplary MODOK is what like 215 instead of 214?  

 

My argument would be if he made a better decision about MODOK, he would likely have made other, better decisions along the way.  Enough to make it a good movie?  I don't know, but maybe?

 

52 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I know you mean all the non-script stuff, and it can also be important for sure, but the quality of the narrative is the #1 thing to people liking it which in turn is the #1 thing for success.

 

Sure, but the reality is that the director is the one that has to make that script a reality.  Give the same script to two different directors and you get two different movies.  

 

One example I like to bring up is David Goyer.  He wrote all 3 Blade movies and while none of them were received well by critics(which is crazy, right?), the one he directed is unanimously considered the worst.  Was his script for that one really that much worse, or was he not up to the task of directing it?

[M37]

I don’t know about anyone else, but sure feels to me like an emotional attachment to the success of GOTG3 is clouding some prognostication judgment and setting unrealistic expectations …

[narniadis]

19 minutes ago, screambaby said:

I knkw this place is  ripe with revisionist history but TFA fell off a cliff?

Ala Mario's off weekend #5 yes. Long term overall legs? Of course not. Overall TFA was a 4 week wonder and it never really recovered from that point and was pretty much done by weekends 8/9 (again, not abnormal for usual films either.) Gotta remember the 1Bil discussion was alive and well for the first three-ish weeks before the holiday inflation evaporated. 

Its not revisionist history and as @MovieMan89 noted, we had discussed it in passing before (as an example he didn't like )

[thajdikt]

OS legs should be better than domestic imo. It exploded in many markets, crushed the projections and many of the markets have scores closer to what would be A+ than A. WF legs gets it to 425 and WOM is way stronger OS here. I don´t think 500 is as hard as 350 domestic. Fast X will be a potential problem. It obviously isn´t close to being locked but I do think it can get there. I´m more dismissive of 350 domestic than 500 OS. I think even 300 could be hard, but I´m hoping it can get there.

[thajdikt]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

At the very least Transformers needs to move. They have guaranteed it sub 300 WW with that release, if not sub 200. DOM will be a bloodbath 

Sub 300M? Have to disagree with that. Transformers for me is a 500M+ worldwide at worst. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

30 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Poor Anthony Ramos. Another flop after In The Heights.

Wonder if a narrative of Ramos being a flop and not having "it" will start around him... People are harder on women about that sort of thing, but he's not the highest on the hierarchy and Hollywood will only try so hard to make him happen.

 

.

 

They're using "This Is Me" from The Greatest Showman for Wegovy ads!

 

 

Can't wait to hear "Peaches" shilling pharmaceuticals in 3-4 years...

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

I don’t know about anyone else, but sure feels to me like an emotional attachment to the success of GOTG3 is clouding some prognostication judgment and setting unrealistic expectations …

Hmmm… nope 😎

[Jonwo]

42 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Summer of 2017 has a lot of parallels to this year, with the caveat that there were a lot of films that had the expectation of being franchise starters/continuations and generally being in that realm of success, that fell flat on their face. Mummy, King Arthur, Alien Covenant, Baywatch.

 

Their failures gave space for Wonder Woman to leg out over the summer and become the biggest hit that period.

 

Nothing feels quite like that this year, where the gap between expectations and lower endb scenario feels that big. But, nothing really does until retrospect.

 

Can the bottom really fall out from Pixar much wors than Lightyear? Is there risk that Barbie can be a failure like Baywatch? I'm someone who's not fully sold on The Flash, but, I feel there's a pretty solid baseline that it will perform. If Rise of the Beasts does The Last Knight domestic numbers, I think that would be seen as a success.

 

 

 

 

I know there is this narrative that Pixar is at rock bottom but Elemental should do a lot better than Lightyear.

[Dominic Draper]

GOTG3 will be my last Gunn film in theatres.

 

I just don't vibe with him at all. All the problems I had with GOTG2 and TSS are prevalent here.

 

It feels overly long, poorly paced with bizzare tonal shifts and the humour misses for 90%+ of the jokes, often repeating jokes that aren't funny the first time. The emotions are cheap and manipulative and don't do anything for me.

 

GOTG1 is the only film hes made I got any enjoyment from and I can't help but think another writer having worked on the script and some tighter reins from Feige are the reasons..

 

Another huge miss for me, I just don't get it. 

 

Happy for those that enjoy.but I couldn't dislike Gunn more if I tried.

 

 

[KeepItU25071906]

3 hours ago, upriser7 said: