JustLurking Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 I mean frankly speaking people on the reddit BO say the dumbest shit 24/7 so I'm not exactly sure you should be that bothered that they think you're bad or anything lmao To be wrong is only human anyway, you're not the first and won't be the last 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlatnumRoyce Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, M37 said: I’m certainly wrong my fair share (just go browse the club forum!), but just don’t feel like this is one of those times (would feel a bit better if I had kept upper bound at $110 instead of $105 though) The first paragraph is basically how I read those posts but why aren't these two claims above contradictory? How would you describe your high and low estimates for film based on pre-sale tracking. Part of this is simply that I don't think this was what a "99th percentile" outcome for GOTG3 looks like from that point even if Disney's additional pushes are above average. GotG3's word of mouth was really good (possibly better than previous GotG films) but all three have been vaguely in the same ballpark and no one seems to think any one specific bit of late marketing truly broke out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said: what's the last film with a similar OW trendline? I suspect there's a conceptual problem with small sample sizes here treating the MCU as its own universe. Basically, what's the actual 25th/75th percentile ranges which is hard to estimate when intra-franchise quality correlation with previous films seems to be easy to over or understate. Its not MCU, but the answer is Batman. Very similar final week sales push, a +24%/-21% Sat & Sun vs +27%/-19%. Batman also had a 7.88x Wed to 2nd weekend multiplier, and I'm expecting roughly the same here, where a $7.5M Wed puts $60M (-50%) potentially in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, M37 said: Its not MCU, but the answer is Batman. Very similar final week sales push, a +24%/-21% Sat & Sun vs +27%/-19%. Batman also had a 7.88x Wed to 2nd weekend multiplier, and I'm expecting roughly the same here, where a $7.5M Wed puts $60M (-50%) potentially in play Not that it matters TOO much b/c it's audience definitely skewed up, but 2nd weekend Batman was the weekend that started the normal big college spring break week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said: The first paragraph is basically how I read those posts but why aren't these two claims above contradictory? How would you describe your high and low estimates for film based on pre-sale tracking. Its based on what I believe are reasonable midpoints and ranges for both Thursday preview based on sales and IM based on history. Both of those are of course subjective, and the problem with working with a smaller and messy data set is you don't truly know what is an outlier vs just a higher end result. And not winding up with a $40-$50M range for a forecast, its probably going to be be shaded one way or another. That's why I started posting the Forecast Matrix, because that's essentially the thought process and shows it all in one shot At that time, both the volume and pace of sales was so bad that it didn't seem reasonable to forecast a high end/outlier result for both the Thursday value and the IM; it wasn't like Avatar where it was clear Saturday was going to be huge and a lower Thursday wasn't as worrisome. The more likely outcomes were that it picked up for Thursday but IM-ed like a normal MCU film or Thursday stayed weaker and the IM was bigger. Both of those could have gotten to me ~$110, but it took a high end result on both to get to the $118M actual. The only reason AMWQ didn't miss the $100-$130 forecast I had put out despite Thursday finishing so weak was because the holiday weekend helped boost the IM/weekend above what it probably would have done opening in like March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Kudos to Empire on being on the money so early. Very good for Guardians. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 OS legs seems strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) Excellent for Vol 3 both dom and OS. It had a slow start dom (previews + Friday) but is now quickly gaining ground. OS has been stellar from beginning. Edited May 10, 2023 by Valonqar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Nice!! Around 24.5% increase from Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric is Anxious Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 1 hour ago, M37 said: Yeah, this is what is frustrating, that it was treated at some grand prediction rather than “shit better change or this could be ugly” waiving the red flag warning. Remember getting the same thing with r/boxoffice when I said sub-100 could happen. This wasn’t a grand proclamation, but then I got featured on Reddit and people started dooming and glooming because they were bored. It’s very annoying. And to you r/boxoffice posters/lurkers, please don’t do that to my posts again. I don’t like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 A great day, and the first real sign of impressive staying power after a frankly underwhelming Monday. Hopefully this will continue through the 18th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skim Beeble Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 9, 2023 Movie Title Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days In Release - (1) Guardians of the Galaxy V… $25,200,000 +182% 4,450 $5,663 $152,539,062 5 - (3) Evil Dead Rise $660,000 +18% -47% 3,036 $217 $55,472,122 19 - (6) Love Again $415,000 +80% 2,703 $154 $3,026,207 5 Edited May 10, 2023 by Skim Beeble 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thajdikt Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Endgame better watch out with that number from Vol 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said: Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 9, 2023 Movie Title Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days In Release - (1) Guardians of the Galaxy V… $25,200,000 +182% 4,450 $5,663 $152,539,062 5 - (3) Evil Dead Rise $660,000 +18% -47% 3,036 $217 $55,472,122 19 - (6) Love Again $415,000 +80% 2,703 $154 $3,026,207 5 Lol, they just added international and domestic numbers together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Immortal Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said: Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 9, 2023 Movie Title Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days In Release - (1) Guardians of the Galaxy V… $25,200,000 +182% 4,450 $5,663 $152,539,062 5 - (3) Evil Dead Rise $660,000 +18% -47% 3,036 $217 $55,472,122 19 - (6) Love Again $415,000 +80% 2,703 $154 $3,026,207 5 So we are likely looking at 30mn Wed, then 40mn Thurs and finally for a 210 mn 2nd weekend and a likely total above GWTW adjusted. The real WOM hit is here. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said: Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 9, 2023 Movie Title Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days In Release - (1) Guardians of the Galaxy V… $25,200,000 +182% 4,450 $5,663 $152,539,062 5 - (3) Evil Dead Rise $660,000 +18% -47% 3,036 $217 $55,472,122 19 - (6) Love Again $415,000 +80% 2,703 $154 $3,026,207 5 real 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOlCatSylvester Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Jatinder just posted on the Telegram group that Guardians 3 could go over $7M for Wednesday from an early glance at presales. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bordlove Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 7 hours ago, Mr Roark said: Charlie said it tbf… GOTG3 box office living rent free in your head bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
