The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[tonytr87]

29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah I chuckled at that. No Hard Feelings was the epitome of a destined flop. The studio paying Lawrence a ridiculous amount for it had nothing to do with it being appealing, that’s part of why they were so stupid.

 

Some comedy will do well again obviously. We’re not even far removed from The Lost City which hit 100. And then obviously there’s Barbie, but I know that’s a bit different than the kind of comedy we’re talking about. 

 

Yea everybody forgets about The Lost City and Free Guy (marketed as a comedy mostly). 

[Borobudur]

43 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Yea everybody forgets about The Lost City and Free Guy (marketed as a comedy mostly). 

TLC and FG both still have bigger budget than NHF. And most importantly, they also sell action adventure, something that immediately tell people it could worth a trip to cinema. NHF didn't have that advantage. 

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

HummingLemmon is a Reddit expat who made this account solely to look at Blue Beetle bombing. 

Yup that user is very transparent and clearly rooting for the movie to fail lol.

[HummingLemon]

11 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Yup that user is very transparent and clearly rooting for the movie to fail lol.

 

[WorkingonaName]

The biggest movie of the year is a comedy. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Blue Beetle, T-4, southern Ontario

 

Good 17% jump today to take sales to 494.  Also saw sales move at the local level for the first time in a few days from 16 to 20. 

 

Unadjusted local comps

 

0.526x Flash for $5.1M

0.909x T:ROTB for $8.0M

 

Note, Flash actually had better growth through the final few days, where ROTB really found its mark in walkups. Therefore, you'll see the two comps spread rather converge.

 

Adjusting the local comps to align to regional sales brings it to a range of $2.3M to $3.6M.

 

Also little aside that whatever issues BB is having, it's doing miles better than Strays, debuting same day. Regional sales for the latter is 21 tickets sold in a region covering 8-10M people, so, things definitely could be worse for Blue Beetle.

 

Blue Beetle, T-3, southern Ontario

 

Okay day of sales, getting to 585, for 91 new sales, and a 18% increase.

 

Locally, unadjusted comps are

 

0.435x Flash for $4.2M

0.870x T:ROTB for $7.7M

 

When adjusting to the regional numbers, it gets me a range of $2.3M to $4.1M

[M37]

One thing to keep in mind with tracking numbers in August, particularly in these second tier markets which are naturally more variable, is the impact of schools being in session for Thursday night showings. They've already opened in Orlando, Jacksonville & Phoenix, while Raleigh and Minn-St Paul are still in summer, and show higher relative numbers.

 

Mostly with Keyser in that the MTC1 numbers suggest around $3.5M or so in previews for Blue Beetle (~65k finish), perhaps dragged down a bit by those open school markets being softer/finishing weaker

[TwoMisfits]

Ah, the dog days of summer where if the movie theater holds you, you'll keep racking up the box office dollars slow and steady (or fast and faster if you're Barbie).

 

My PLF 14 Cinemark set - NO Hollywood movie drops this week, so thus, no big sets for openers either...here's the set...

 

NEW

Blue Beetle - 2 screens - 1 XD, 1 not - no expansion from presales

Strays - 1 screen - no expansion from presales

 

Holdovers

Barbie - 1.75 screens - .5 XD, 1.25 not

Oppy - 2,25 screens (so funny this is still 4 less showings than Barbie) - .5 XD, 1.75 not

TMNT - 1.25 screens (extra morning show)

Meg 2 - 1.25 screens (extra morning show)

Demeter - 1 screen

MI7 - 1 screen

SoF - .5 screen

Foreign Films and Metallica show - 2 screens

 

Drops

Just a foreign film 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Non-PLF 12 also set - and no expansion for openers there, either, so few drops (although Oppy's run time finally burns it)...

 

NEW
Blue Beetle - 1.75 screens - no expansion from presales

Strays - 1 screen - no expansion from presales

 

Holdovers

Barbie - 2 screens

Oppy - 1 screen (3 showings - that's where it's gonna start to hurt now)

TMNT - 1 screen

Meg 2 - 1 screen

Demeter - 1 screen

Talk to Me - 1 screen

MI - 1 screen

Foreign films and Metallica showing - 1.25 screens

 

Dropped 

SoF and a foreign film 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-3	Jax	5	42	21	121	6,627	1.83%
		Phx	6	43	27	137	8,909	1.54%
		Ral	8	28	42	170	4,226	4.02%
	Total		19	113	90	428	19,762	2.17%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	5	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	4	0	2	544	0.37%
		Ral	2	2	12	16	155	10.32%
	Total		10	10	17	25	1,520	1.64%
	T-5	Jax	4	8	6	8	1,642	0.49%
		Phx	4	8	9	9	1,098	0.82%
		Ral	2	4	-4	9	310	2.90%
	Total		10	20	11	26	3,050	0.85%
	T-6	Jax	4	4	4	4	821	0.49%
		Phx	4	4	3	4	544	0.74%
		Ral	2	2	4	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	10	11	12	1,520	0.79%
Strays	T-3	Jax	6	16	14	39	1,948	2.00%
		Phx	6	23	6	31	3,053	1.02%
		Ral	6	18	9	33	2,703	1.22%
	Total		18	57	29	103	7,704	1.34%
Strays (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	3	9	14	352	3.98%
		Phx	3	3	3	5	403	1.24%
		Ral	4	4	8	27	506	5.34%
	Total		10	10	20	46	1,261	3.65%

*All new sales since Saturday morning

 

Strays (Total) T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.328x (1.16m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .768x (845k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .949x (712k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .613x (1.23m)

 - Violent Night - 1.307x (1.44m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .1x (558k)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.02m

 

Blue Beetle T-3 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.76x (3.52m)

 - Bullet Train - .986x (3.3m)

 - Turtles - .797x (3.07m)

 - Suicide Squad - .694x (2.84m)

 - Shazam 2 - .667x (2.27m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Flash - .213x (2.07m)

 - Morbius - .382x (2.18m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.04m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	40.33%	32.13%	30.92%
Cocaine Bear	49.08%	9.82%	11.56%
Bullet Train	36.05%	24.45%	22.82%	17.62%
Turtles	52.56%	25.57%	16.79%	15.48%
Suicide Squad	45.18%	25.65%	11.39%	20.27%
Shazam 2	23.94%	10.04%	8.37%	11.46%
Black Adam
Flash	25.48%	17.99%		10.51%
Morbius	33.77%	21.00%	16.47%	14.04%

 

Lower starting point makes the 3-day pace look pretty good.  Still looks like around 3m to me.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blue Beetle	T-2	Jax	5	42	43	164	6,627	2.47%
		Phx	6	49	27	164	9,439	1.74%
		Ral	8	35	35	205	4,792	4.28%
	Total		19	126	105	533	20,858	2.56%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	0	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	4	1	3	544	0.55%
		Ral	2	2	4	20	155	12.90%
	Total		10	10	5	30	1,520	1.97%
	T-4	Jax	4	8	10	18	1,642	1.10%
		Phx	4	8	17	26	1,098	2.37%
		Ral	2	4	0	9	310	2.90%
	Total		10	20	27	53	3,050	1.74%
	T-5	Jax	4	4	3	7	821	0.85%
		Phx	4	5	-1	3	670	0.45%
		Ral	2	2	0	4	155	2.58%
	Total		10	11	2	14	1,646	0.85%
Strays	T-2	Jax	6	16	-1	38	1,948	1.95%
		Phx	6	25	9	40	3,163	1.26%
		Ral	6	21	6	39	2,877	1.36%
	Total		18	62	14	117	7,988	1.46%
Strays (EA)	T-1	Jax	3	3	7	21	352	5.97%
		Phx	3	3	2	7	403	1.74%
		Ral	4	4	9	36	506	7.11%
	Total		10	10	18	64	1,261	5.08%

 

Strays (Total) T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.011x (1.01m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .83x (913k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - 1x (750k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .562x (1.12m)

 - Violent Night - 1.183x (1.3m) 

 - Turtles (Total) - .116x (649k)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .673x (673k)

 

Size adjusted average - 942k

Still thinking around 1m for this with EA included.  Final day will be key for comedies.

 

Blue Beetle T-2 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.66x (3.31m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.02x (3.4m)

 - Turtles - .73x (3.49m)

 - Suicide Squad - .73x (2.99m)

 - Shazam 2 - .745x (2.53m)

 - Black Adam - .286x (2.18m)

 - Flash - .232x (2.25m)

 - Morbius - .376x (2.14m)

 - Snake Eyes - 2.33x (3.26m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.01m

 

Blue Beetle pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Blue Beetle	57.69%	34.62%	24.43%	24.53%
Cocaine Bear				32.51%
Bullet Train	56.72%	27.46%	12.76%	20.97%
Turtles	52.33%	23.83%	24.83%	9.50%
Suicide Squad	54.33%	27.70%	14.04%	18.31%
Shazam 2	30.47%	11.13%	8.01%	11.37%
Black Adam	44.82%	23.27%
Flash	36.12%	17.05%	15.56%	14.44%
Morbius	58.44%	18.10%	21.69%	26.49%

Snake Eyes

112.04%

46.30%

50.00%

38.79%

 

3-day is right in track with the non-CBM movies.  Morbius with the closest 3-day and last day.  Sticking with 3m. 

[keysersoze123]

On 8/13/2023 at 9:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 26078/472478 453336.90 2270 shows

Friday - 16684/628977 283024.54 2945 shows

 

Looking at ~3.5-4m previews and 25-30m OW depending on how the final walkups go.  

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 29845/517114 515563.97 2559 shows +3767

Friday - 19719/691398 334041.79 3377 shows

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Next TMobile Deal (1st since MI7)...

 

The Equalizer 3 $5 Atom tickets - starts Aug 29 and will be sellable the full week and usable for all days (this deal seems to backend weekends more than spike Thursday presales)...

 

In good news, it's the type of film that might benefit.  In bad news, this is gonna follow everyone and their brother going to a $4 cinema day 2 days before.  So, there's the analysis...

[Tinalera]

Blue Beetle

Thurs Aug 17 Fri Aug 18

Vancouver and Calgary Canada (T-3)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	11	11	34	1388	0.0079
	Fri	2	6	29	562	591	0.0490
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	9	18	1016	1174	0.0153
	Fri	2	8	14	2226	2240	0.0062

 

There are theatres that have a thurs showing presale but no friday yet, hence the lower friday theatre amount numbers.

 

Between this, GT and Strays feels like a surreal dream right now with the total lack of activity lol

[filmlover]

In other news, should be a good two weeks for holdovers with the openers appearing very Late August-y. Luckily we have a September that's surprisingly full of sequels right around the corner, even if none of them will rival the year's biggest hits.

[vinny2487]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

One thing to keep in mind with tracking numbers in August, particularly in these second tier markets which are naturally more variable, is the impact of schools being in session for Thursday night showings. They've already opened in Orlando, Jacksonville & Phoenix, while Raleigh and Minn-St Paul are still in summer, and show higher relative numbers.

 

Mostly with Keyser in that the MTC1 numbers suggest around $3.5M or so in previews for Blue Beetle (~65k finish), perhaps dragged down a bit by those open school markets being softer/finishing weaker

 

To add to this, here in SoCal LA Unified (second largest in the nation) started school Monday (yesterday). A bunch of school districts in Orange County will start school today. 

[vafrow]

57 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Blue Beetle

Thurs Aug 17 Fri Aug 18

Vancouver and Calgary Canada (T-3)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	11	11	34	1388	0.0079
	Fri	2	6	29	562	591	0.0490
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	9	18	1016	1174	0.0153
	Fri	2	8	14	2226	2240	0.0062

 

There are theatres that have a thurs showing presale but no friday yet, hence the lower friday theatre amount numbers.

 

Between this, GT and Strays feels like a surreal dream right now with the total lack of activity lol

 

That's remarkably low, even comparing to my southern Ontario standards. For Thursday, I have 3.6 tickets per showtime, where you're at 1.5.

 

Ticket sales do appear uneven around me, with more deeper suburbs and rural doing worse, but, my understanding is that your pulls are generally from pretty urban areas of two big cities.

 

I assume schools are still in summer session for both regions as well.

 

What's funny is that for my theatre, Shazam Fury of the Gods actually did great business here. It was one of the few kid friendly options during March Break. I'm pretty sure most provinces were on break around then too.

 

Maybe the fact that a lot of people saw it resulted in them less likely to see Blue Beetle.

[Tinalera]

25 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

That's remarkably low, even comparing to my southern Ontario standards. For Thursday, I have 3.6 tickets per showtime, where you're at 1.5.

 

Ticket sales do appear uneven around me, with more deeper suburbs and rural doing worse, but, my understanding is that your pulls are generally from pretty urban areas of two big cities.

 

I assume schools are still in summer session for both regions as well.

 

What's funny is that for my theatre, Shazam Fury of the Gods actually did great business here. It was one of the few kid friendly options during March Break. I'm pretty sure most provinces were on break around then too.

 

Maybe the fact that a lot of people saw it resulted in them less likely to see Blue Beetle.

When I have Vanc/Cal, Toronto/MTL and east coast (which i havent done in a while, heres what I find:

 

Van and Calgary always seem to be a little bit less that Toronto (obviously population), and sometimes can be surprisingly behind. Toronto is its own, usually has most seats, Montreal is weird.....its hard to even sometimes to find even bigger shows to have presales-whether its smaller theatres or what have  you. East coast I haven't done in awhile because no matter film (again smaller population) seems to be like the "last ones" to catch up as far as Population. I will do Toronto/Montreal Tomorrow for BB and see where things are. 

 

Im just getting impression that Cineplex is really "holding on" to Oppy and Barbie screens wise for literally as long as it can. Hence why stuff like Aug movies arent getting alot of the IMAX type screens. 

 

And yes, I do big cities-my time of doing smaller areas I don't do much anymore, so its great when those like yourself cover the smaller areas

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

When I have Vanc/Cal, Toronto/MTL and east coast (which i havent done in a while, heres what I find:

 

Van and Calgary always seem to be a little bit less that Toronto (obviously population), and sometimes can be surprisingly behind. Toronto is its own, usually has most seats, Montreal is weird.....its hard to even sometimes to find even bigger shows to have presales-whether its smaller theatres or what have  you. East coast I haven't done in awhile because no matter film (again smaller population) seems to be like the "last ones" to catch up as far as Population. I will do Toronto/Montreal Tomorrow for BB and see where things are. 

 

Im just getting impression that Cineplex is really "holding on" to Oppy and Barbie screens wise for literally as long as it can. Hence why stuff like Aug movies arent getting alot of the IMAX type screens. 

 

And yes, I do big cities-my time of doing smaller areas I don't do much anymore, so its great when those like yourself cover the smaller areas

 

Since you're also looking at Cineplex, I may as well share my methodology, as I've expanded recently.

 

When tracking my individual theatre, I've just gone directly into my theatre listings and find the showtimes that way.

 

But, recently, I've looked up the film directly, and it pulls up showtimes for a short radius. You can opt to show more, and I keep clicking that until it won't give me any more results. It maxes out at around 150Km or so. I then do a manual mental count. Blue Beetle is the biggest film I've done. I think if I did a Barbie, I'd start struggling with the math. As it is, if i try pulling it when I have any distractions around, I often have to restart.

 

As long as I'm pulling data from the same physical location, it should be giving me consistent data. But, if Cineplex changes the parameters, it'll throw my system off.

 

It's not the greatest method, since it's manual, and prone to error, but it's the only way I've found to reliably collect from a lot of theatres without being too time intensive. I do all this on my mobile, as the only computer I'm on regularly is for work, and don't want to explain why I'm constantly looking up movie times.

 

Sharing just in case this methodology is useful for anyone else, or if anyone has any suggestions to improve.

Edited August 15, 2023 by vafrow

[Pinacolada]

15 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah I chuckled at that. No Hard Feelings was the epitome of a destined flop. The studio paying Lawrence a ridiculous amount for it had nothing to do with it being appealing, that’s part of why they were so stupid.

 

Some comedy will do well again obviously. We’re not even far removed from The Lost City which hit 100. And then obviously there’s Barbie, but I know that’s a bit different than the kind of comedy we’re talking about. 

No Hard Feelings performance would've been fine, a success even, if it had cost what it should have. $30m

 

$45m budget for that was so unbelievably stupid. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Pinacolada said:

No Hard Feelings performance would've been fine, a success even, if it had cost what it should have. $30m

 

$45m budget for that was so unbelievably stupid. 

Yeah, that’s true. I should have specified it was a destined bomb at that budget (J Law’s paycheck for it was unfathomably unjustified).