The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 9/19/2023 at 6:17 PM, vafrow said:

Expendables 4, T-2 evening update, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 194

New tickets: 89

Growth since T-4: 85%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 84

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Tickets per showtime: 2

310

 

0.340x Equalizer 3 for $1.3M

0.258x Blue Beetle for $0.7M

0.452x Nun 2 for $1.4M

 

Average: $1.2M

 

 

Expendables 4, T-1 evening update, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Tickets sold: 271

New tickets: 77

Growth since yesterday: 40%

Theatres: 47

Showtimes: 84

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

Tickets per showtime: 3.226

 

0.305x Equalizer 3 for $1.2M

0.233x Blue Beetle for $0.8M

0.335x Nun 2 for $1.0M

 

Average $1.0M

 

Didn't finish that strong.

[tonytr87]

7 hours ago, Mulder said:

Maybe if FNAF wasn't going to Peacock I'd buy into the breakout hype, but that Peacock day and date release is going to kneecap it. The only people who are going to go out to see it in theaters will be the dedicated diehards. I'm thinking 30-40 for it personally.

 

I still can't comprehend that decision. Could've earned 40 mil OW with full theatrical. 

[eman92]

Saw X T-8 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

When the Nun II came out, I tracked every night around midnight their sales for the entire weekend's showtimes. I am going to do the same thing with Saw X to have an apples to apples comparison. For T-8 (First day of presales for both) I'm showing the following results at my AMC Theater:

 

T-8	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	18	20
Friday	16	10
Saturday	0*	16
Sunday	0*	2
Total	34	48

 

 

A few things to note, The Nun II was given 9 showings on Thursday and Friday-Sunday all had 17 showings per day. For Saw X the Thursday preview only has 2 showings!!! For Friday-Sunday for Saw X my theater has 5 showings so far. The 8 PM on Thursday for Saw X sold all 20 tickets, the other showing was 10:45 PM and had 0 tickets sold. So basically 1 showing of Saw X at my theater sold more tickets than 9 showings of The Nun II (At least on T-8) for Thursday. Worth noting that The Nun II also had IMAX/Dolby showings when Saw X only has 2 regular laser showings.

 

Also to note The Nun II did not have Saturday or Sunday times on T-8 which is why they show 0. But Saw X has already sold more Saturday tickets than it took The Nun II until T-5 to do more than 16 Saturday sales.

 

I'm pretty positive that either tomorrow or this weekend AMC will add more showings to Thursday and should add more to Friday-Sunday for Saw X. It is rumored Saw X may get 1-2 Dolby showings but unclear at the moment, my AMC has no Dolby showings yet scheduled for the weekend of the 29th. I'm pretty certain if Saw X gets Dolby showings that its presales will jump. The Nun II at my theater with presales had Dolby sales as the most popular and did 2x of IMAX sales for The Nun II. 

 

Overall seems solid sales for Saw X considering its restraints on its showtimes and lack of PLF. I think this shows that Saw X has potential to do well. This is a very large theater, but it is just 1 theater. Either way I'm curious how it will track against The Nun II in the next few days, and if Saw X does get added showtimes if that helps improve its sales even more. 

Edited September 21, 2023 by eman92

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

 

I still can't comprehend that decision. Could've earned 40 mil OW with full theatrical. 

When you take into account that pretty much every day and date movie after 2021 has been a dud so far, Universal's decision becomes more clear. I think they know they're sitting on a dud like the last two Halloween sequels.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11106	18739	7633	40.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

42

 

T-24 Comps:

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	88.92		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	36.15%		32.01m	46.42m
BP2	133.72		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	45.43%		37.44m	54.29m
AM3	205.30		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	72.87%		35.93m	52.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2233/6150  [36.31% sold]

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	11084	18739	7655	40.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

22

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
MoM	87.20		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	36.25%		31.39m	45.52m
BP2	131.76		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	45.57%		36.89m	53.49m
AM3	199.09		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	73.08%		34.84m	50.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

Regal:     2237/6150  [36.37% sold]

[vafrow]

On 9/20/2023 at 4:19 AM, vafrow said:

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-24 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,253

New Sales: 45

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.7%

Tickets per showtime: 174.8

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

I've added the figure of total seats available, so we can see percentage of seats sold.

 

Because of a lack of late shows, capacity rate is higher than other chains. Before the matinees got eliminated, there was a lot of available capacity there that got lost for now.

 

If they officially cancel the matinees, I could see them adding more late shows to compensate.

 

Regarding the cancelled matinees, still no update on those at all.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour, Opening Friday,southern Ontario, T-24 (early am pull)

 

Total sales:  16,306

New Sales: 53

Growth from yesterday 0.3%

Matinee Sales on Hold: 5855 across 121 showtimes 

Theatre Count:  50

Showtimes:  93

Total Seats Available for Sale: 24,365

Percentage of seats sold: 66.9%

Tickets per showtime: 175.3

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked:  MTC4

 

Another slow day. Nothing much else to date until we see some sort of movement.

[vafrow]

4 hours ago, eman92 said:

Saw X T-8 Evening Update - Northern New Jersey 16 screen Theater

 

When the Nun II came out, I tracked every night around midnight their sales for the entire weekend's showtimes. I am going to do the same thing with Saw X to have an apples to apples comparison. For T-8 (First day of presales for both) I'm showing the following results at my AMC Theater:

 

T-8	The Nun II	Saw X
Thursday	18	20
Friday	16	10
Saturday	0*	16
Sunday	0*	2
Total	34	48

 

 

A few things to note, The Nun II was given 9 showings on Thursday and Friday-Sunday all had 17 showings per day. For Saw X the Thursday preview only has 2 showings!!! For Friday-Sunday for Saw X my theater has 5 showings so far. The 8 PM on Thursday for Saw X sold all 20 tickets, the other showing was 10:45 PM and had 0 tickets sold. So basically 1 showing of Saw X at my theater sold more tickets than 9 showings of The Nun II (At least on T-8) for Thursday. Worth noting that The Nun II also had IMAX/Dolby showings when Saw X only has 2 regular laser showings.

 

Also to note The Nun II did not have Saturday or Sunday times on T-8 which is why they show 0. But Saw X has already sold more Saturday tickets than it took The Nun II until T-5 to do more than 16 Saturday sales.

 

I'm pretty positive that either tomorrow or this weekend AMC will add more showings to Thursday and should add more to Friday-Sunday for Saw X. It is rumored Saw X may get 1-2 Dolby showings but unclear at the moment, my AMC has no Dolby showings yet scheduled for the weekend of the 29th. I'm pretty certain if Saw X gets Dolby showings that its presales will jump. The Nun II at my theater with presales had Dolby sales as the most popular and did 2x of IMAX sales for The Nun II. 

 

Overall seems solid sales for Saw X considering its restraints on its showtimes and lack of PLF. I think this shows that Saw X has potential to do well. This is a very large theater, but it is just 1 theater. Either way I'm curious how it will track against The Nun II in the next few days, and if Saw X does get added showtimes if that helps improve its sales even more. 

 

Welcome to the tracking club. Looking forward to more updates.

[ViewerAnon]

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

When you take into account that pretty much every day and date movie after 2021 has been a dud so far, Universal's decision becomes more clear. I think they know they're sitting on a dud like the last two Halloween sequels.

 

It's because Peacock is desperate for content and Jason Blum's happy to negotiate a big upfront payout. I think THE EXORCIST: BELIEVER would also be day-and-date if not for some contractual shenanigans with Morgan Creek.

[vafrow]

Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups, T-8, Thursday previews, southern Ontario

 

Total sales: 55

Theatre Count: 47

Showtimes: 113

Tickets per showtime: 0.49

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

No comps, but wanted to get a sense of numbers. It's better than I thought for a Thursday night in September for a very young skewing movie like this.

[Boxofficerules]

I'm confused, is Saw X selling good or bad?

[filmlover]

I'm actually impressed that they aren't attempting a Peacock day-and-date for Trolls 3 considering the previous movie ended up a glorified DTV feature (and being a PVOD monster at that).

[dobrevv]

‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection

https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-projection-1235552652/

Edited September 21, 2023 by dobrevv

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

I'm confused, is Saw X selling good or bad?

 

It's early, but sales appear to have gotten to a hot start.

 

But we'll need a few days tp see how things settle.

[el sid]

Saw X, counted today for Friday, September 29. 8 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 33 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 6 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): so far no showtimes
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 11 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 59 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 113.

Comps: M3gan (30.4M) had on Monday of the release week (= 4 days left for Saw X) 247 sold tickets.
The Black Phone (23.6M) had after ca. 1 day on sale 34 sold tickets,
Beast (11.6M) had 27
and Barbarian (10.5M) had 24 sold tickets.
The Boogeyman (12.4M) had on Sunday, with 5 days left, 80 sold tickets.
The Exorcist had 268 after 1 1/2 days - but that was for Thursday which normally has better presales than the Friday, especially when it comes to horror films.

Honestly I expected a tiny bit more but overall, that was a good start for Saw X.

[el sid]

Expend4bles, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 78 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 71 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 47 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 60 (5 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 276.

Up 31% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday and in 7 theaters; I did not count The Equalizer 3 on that day): Angel Has Fallen (1.5M from previews) had 459 sold tickets,
Rambo V (1.3M) had 386,
Plane (435k) had 210,
Creed III (5.45M) had 1.081 (wrong day yesterday)

and The Meg 2 (3.2M) had 586.

Completely depends on the walk-ups but it should at least reach 1M.

Expend4bles, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 125 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 31 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 56 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 41 (7 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 273. At least not frontloaded.

Up 35% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday and in 7 theaters): Angel Has Fallen (21.4M OW) had 446 sold tickets,
Rambo V (18.9M) had 351,
Plane (10.3M) had 292,
Creed III (58.4M) had 1.652,
The Meg 2 (30M) had 651,
The Protégé (2.9M) had 91
and Gran Turismo (13.5M/17.4M) had 301 sold tickets.

Action films in this manner normally are walk-up beasts and the jumps were at least a bit better than at the beginning of the week. So my final guess is 15M OW. Still a disappointment.

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, dobrevv said:

‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection

https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-projection-1235552652/

 

Good sign given how much they lowball. They were projecting Barbie $90m-$125m on release week 🤣

 

https://deadline.com/2023/07/barbie-oppenheimer-box-office-opening-1235440879/

 

 

[Valencia]

26 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Good sign given how much they lowball. They were projecting Barbie $90m-$125m on release week 🤣

 

https://deadline.com/2023/07/barbie-oppenheimer-box-office-opening-1235440879/

 

 

Rabid Taylor Swift fan driven concert film will not have a significant number of walk-ups.

 

Deadline probably isn’t lowballing in her case.

[Firepower]

So Saw X can break out? That trailer views/likes ratio rarely lies, I knew the interest is there.

[DisposedData]

I think people are definitely underestimating walkups for Swift.

[Tinalera]

Saw X

Vancouver Canada 

Thurs Sept 28

 

 

Vancouv	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	7	12	1301	1313	0.0091

 

 

Getting back into the....normality of theatre counting, hoping I can start building back a bit more (Listings for Vancouver were not giving me Friday dates, just thursday)