The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Interesting MTC1 started and then paused sales for Hunger Games. I did glance and not all theaters within MTC1 also put out the shows. Linc Sq Imax sold more than half the seats for prime time Imax and Disney has sold almost 80%. So its going for non trivial previews based on quick check. I hope there is a splash tomorrow with tickets available everywhere and we could judge its potential. My instinct says it will have good previews. May be even better than the movie opening a week earlier :-)

Edited October 31, 2023 by keysersoze123

[M37]

2 hours ago, Giorno said:

@M37if the marvels has the same last week growth (% wise) that gotg 3 did then what kind of previews would we be looking at?

A comp value by default assumes film A and B have the same growth rate (as well as market share). As of yesterday's numbers, vs GOTG3

• MTC1 = $7.81M
• Orlando = $7.12M
• Sacto = $5.62M
• Average  = $6.85M

Not a whole lot of data points, and I would tend to lean more towards the MTC1 number, expecting the other markets to catch towards the end (unless when we do get other market comps they are also low). Also, that MTC1 value has been very consistent, sitting at $7.87M at T-16, barely changing 6 days later (meaning they are pacing similarly day by day as well)

[keysersoze123]

This week Guardians amped up big time. from today onwards it increased 16%,18%,11% and 55%(reviews were out). This is increase in daily pace from previous day's pace. Marvels without any catalyst will find it tough but its sales level is so low that its possible for it to ramp up just because release is imminent. 

 

This movie would have benefited from TMobile/Atom deal but it appears next movie to get it is Hunger Games. 

 

I am also struggling to get MTC2 data but its well below MTC1 levels. But there its normally at very end where it catches up to rest. I hope we get update for Drafthouse from @Inceptionzq as well and May be Charlie will update MiniTC2. 

 

To me MCU can be predicted by Sacramento itself. Rest are just a bonus :-)

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

A comp value by default assumes film A and B have the same growth rate (as well as market share). As of yesterday's numbers, vs GOTG3

• MTC1 = $7.81M
• Orlando = $7.12M
• Sacto = $5.62M
• Average  = $6.85M

Not a whole lot of data points, and I would tend to lean more towards the MTC1 number, expecting the other markets to catch towards the end (unless when we do get other market comps they are also low). Also, that MTC1 value has been very consistent, sitting at $7.87M at T-16, barely changing 6 days later (meaning they are pacing similarly day by day as well)

 

Be careful of relying just on MTC 1 - when you have an older, hardcore moving going subscriber base, they will buy tickets to every blockbuster, almost by default.  For a movie intending to pull in lots of GA (especially of the younger variety), MTC 2 is sometimes the better look...

 

Sacto might be so much lower b/c it has no MTC 1...

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Priscilla							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm						ATP	$12.99
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	7	14	2	13	1,471	0.88%	18.18%
T-6	7	14	6	19	1,471	1.29%	46.15%
T-5	7	14	4	23	1,471	1.56%	21.05%
T-4	7	14	13	36	1,471	2.45%	56.52%
T-3	7	14	17	53	1,471	3.60%	47.22%
MTC1	4	6	+7	29	544	5.33%	31.82%
MTC2	1	2	+2	10	204	4.90%	25.00%
MTC3	2	6	+8	14	723	1.94%	133.33%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.421x	=	$0.46m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.726x	=	$0.40m
A Haunting In Venice					0.381x	=	$0.46m

 

Comp average: $440k

 

 

Priscilla							OK
Thursday - showings starting 4pm						ATP	$13.24
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	7	14	6	19	1,471	1.29%	46.15%
T-5	7	14	4	23	1,471	1.56%	21.05%
T-4	7	14	13	36	1,471	2.45%	56.52%
T-3	7	14	17	53	1,471	3.60%	47.22%
T-2	7	15	17	70	1,491	4.69%	32.08%
MTC1	4	7	+12	41	564	7.27%	41.38%
MTC2	1	2	-2	8	204	3.92%	-20.00%
MTC3	2	6	+7	21	723	2.90%	50.00%
Comps
Asteroid City					0.424x	=	$0.47m
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3					0.824x	=	$0.45m
A Haunting In Venice					0.378x	=	$0.45m

 

Comp average: $460k

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.78
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	21	173	6	591	32,650	1.81%	1.03%
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
MTC1	8	59	+15	348	10,485	3.32%	4.50%
MTC2	4	48	+6	93	8,204	1.13%	6.90%
MTC3	3	39	+12	192	8,077	2.38%	6.67%
Other	6	25	0	57	5,207	1.09%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.669x	=	$4.82m
Barbie					0.302x	=	$6.71m
Oppenheimer					0.578x	=	$6.07m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.919x	=	$8.09m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.647x	=	$9.22m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.565x	=	$5.82m

 

Matinee: 2.46%

3D: 10.14%

PLF: 61.45%

 

Comp average: $6.79m

 

Lost a couple of shows that had sold nada. Despite average drop, gained on Indy (again) and FNAF today.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.75
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-13	21	173	13	604	32,650	1.85%	2.20%
T-12	21	173	24	628	32,650	1.92%	3.97%
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
MTC1	8	59	+20	368	10,485	3.51%	5.75%
MTC2	4	48	+4	97	8,204	1.18%	4.30%
MTC3	3	39	+4	196	8,077	2.43%	2.08%
Other	10	42	+8	65	6,943	0.94%	14.04%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.685x	=	$4.93m
Barbie					0.271x	=	$6.01m
Oppenheimer					0.539x	=	$5.66m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.911x	=	$8.02m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.578x	=	$8.84m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.537x	=	$5.53m

 

Matinee: 2.62%

3D: 9.50%

PLF: 61.43%

 

Comp average: $6.50m

 

Usual last local chain added at T-9. Unfortunately it had hardly sold anything so far so lost more ground than expected as my comps get an unnatural bump today typically (which this didn't). For example, FNAF "growth" at T-9 was over 10%, over double the previous day. Here "growth" is basically identical to yesterday.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Hilts

[Arlborn]

6 minutes ago, Hilts said:

Usual last local chain added at T-9. Unfortunately it had hardly sold anything so far so lost more ground than expected as my comps get an unnatural bump today typically (which this didn't). For example, FNAF "growth" at T-9 was over 10%, over double the previous day. Here "growth" is basically identical to yesterday.

Ominous, very ominous. Pace really should be picking up by now.

[Boxofficerules]

Imagine Thanksgiving had a better opening weekend than The Marvels.

[M37]

On 10/20/2023 at 11:09 AM, M37 said:

Rolling up the analysis together get me to here, with a midpoint right around Venom 2, higher than the top end of  @Shawn's updated LRF

FNAF OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$11.0	$11.4	$11.9	$12.3	$12.8	$13.2	$13.6	$14.1	$14.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$66.0	$68.6	$71.3	$73.9	$76.5	$79.1	$81.8	$84.4	$87.0
	6.25	$68.8	$71.5	$74.2	$77.0	$79.7	$82.4	$85.2	$87.9	$90.6
	6.50	$71.5	$74.3	$77.2	$80.0	$82.9	$85.7	$88.6	$91.4	$94.3
	6.75	$74.3	$77.2	$80.2	$83.1	$86.1	$89.0	$92.0	$94.9	$97.9
	7.00	$77.0	$80.1	$83.1	$86.2	$89.3	$92.3	$95.4	$98.4	$101.5
	7.25	$79.8	$82.9	$86.1	$89.3	$92.4	$95.6	$98.8	$102.0	$105.1
	7.50	$82.5	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.9	$102.2	$105.5	$108.8
	7.75	$85.3	$88.6	$92.0	$95.4	$98.8	$102.2	$105.6	$109.0	$112.4
	8.00	$88.0	$91.5	$95.0	$98.5	$102.0	$105.5	$109.0	$112.5	$116.0

 

Not ruling out the higher end of a $100M+ OW, but tempering expectations a bit due to outside factors working against that outcome

 

 

Based on the T-7 Forecast Matrix, FNAF is graded as a half win, as while the OW value was solidly in the green target range, the actual $10.3M preview fell below the lower bound - didn't even make the chart! - and the IM was nearly off in the opposite direction

 

FNAF OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$11.0	$11.4	$11.9	$12.3	$12.8	$13.2	$13.6	$14.1	$14.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$66.0	$68.6	$71.3	$73.9	$76.5	$79.1	$81.8	$84.4	$87.0
	6.25	$68.8	$71.5	$74.2	$77.0	$79.7	$82.4	$85.2	$87.9	$90.6
	6.50	$71.5	$74.3	$77.2	$80.0	$82.9	$85.7	$88.6	$91.4	$94.3
	6.75	$74.3	$77.2	$80.2	$83.1	$86.1	$89.0	$92.0	$94.9	$97.9
	7.00	$77.0	$80.1	$83.1	$86.2	$89.3	$92.3	$95.4	$98.4	$101.5
	7.25	$79.8	$82.9	$86.1	$89.3	$92.4	$95.6	$98.8	$102.0	$105.1
	7.50	$82.5	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.9	$102.2	$105.5	$108.8
	7.75	$85.3	$88.6	$92.0	$95.4	$98.8	$102.2	$105.6	$109.0	$112.4
	8.00	$88.0	$91.5	$95.0	$98.5	$102.0	$105.5	$109.0	$112.5	$116.0

 

With that said, after a few more days of data, would have updated the chart to reflect this expectation (but generally leave the T-7 as the "official" forecast even if my views change over the final week)

On 10/23/2023 at 8:41 AM, M37 said:

Still believe over $40M OD (including previews) and $80M+ OW is happening, just may be more Friday heavy than IM math in original post anticipated, something along lines of $11M/8x rather than $13M/7x

[M37]

36 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Ominous, very ominous. Pace really should be picking up by now.

Halloween depression effect. Let’s wait until T-7 to see if there’s any catch-up back to a decent pace (and more data points)

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/27/2023 at 4:58 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-22	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	60	9	48	7419	0.65
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 7 theaters	7	9	9	906	0.99
TOTALS:	67	18	57	8325	0.68

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		29	10	50.88
Marcus:		15	4	26.32
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		13	4	22.81

 

7 chains versus 13 locally for Trolls EA, we will see if anymore add them. Honestly, I agree with @keysersoze123's assessment about doubting the importance of Tuesday previews, and pre-sales especially. Saturday EA will syphon off a lot of pre-sales, and unlike with Trolls where there's about two weeks for it to then catch up, Wish's are really close together. I'll still track and comp it (Haunted Mansion and Paw Patrol comps next update, and I will start comps for the EA shows then too), but I doubt we will see a lot of movement until reallyyyyy close to release now.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Wish (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-18	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 16 theaters	63	16	64	8067	0.79
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 7 theaters	7	20	29	906	3.2
TOTALS:	70	36	93	8973	1.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		48	19	51.61
Marcus:		18	3	19.35
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		27	14	29.03

 

Tuesday comps:

0.82x Haunted Mansion: $2.54 Million

4x Trolls: Band Together: ??

 

Paw Patrol and TMNT next updates, I have Paw Patrol numbers for T-21 but that had just started its run, doesn't make much sense to include them.

 

EA comps:

1.45x Trolls Band Together: ??

 

I'm surprised that this isn't going the Trolls route, at least so far, in that EA sales start to totally eclipse the Tuesday ones. But we're still a ways.

[Tinalera]

I do admit I am tempted to check presales for "Thanksgiving"-esp seeing as here in Canada we had ours 2 weeks ago 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
122	121	21295	0.57%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.169x) of KOTFM $438K Previews

(0.287x) of A Haunting at Venice $344K Previews

(0.318x) of Asteroid City $348K Previews

Comps AVG: $377k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

PRISCILLA

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
129	151	22478	0.67%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.195x) of KOTFM $507K Previews

(0.621x) of Greek Wedding $341K Previews

Comps AVG: $424k

Edited October 31, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/30/2023 at 5:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	59	20993	0.28%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.143x) of Exorcist $407K Previews

Comps AVG: $407k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
123	65	20993	0.31%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.151x) of Exorcist $430K Previews

Comps AVG: $430k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/30/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
263	2478	52985	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.407x) of GOTG3~$7.13M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.13M

 

Terrible day. Slipped massively against comps 

 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
275	2534	55831	4.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.408x) of GOTG3~$7.14M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.14M

[iEnri]

If FNAF opened with 75M-80M with much better pre sales, Marvels wont even get to 50M by comparing pre sales of the two lmao 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/30/2023 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	599	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(1.536x) of Elemental $3.69M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

124 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	599	29762	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.524x) of Elemental $3.66M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

455 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

126 seats sold over 10 showings 

 

No sales today 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/30/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	305	31233	0.98%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-17

 

EA on Saturday = 277 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.726x) of Elemental $1.74M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.74M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	303	31233	0.97%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-16

 

EA on Saturday = 319 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.692x) of Elemental $1.66M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.66M

 

2 returns, no sales  

[Tinalera]

The Marvels

Thurs Nov 9 and Fri Mar 10

Toronto and Montreal Canada

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	25	314	4611	4925	0.0637
Fri	4	31	229	5740	5969	0.0383
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	23	275	6166	6441	0.0426
Fri	4	35	340	9877	10217	0.0332

 

[Bob Train]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/biggest-movies-theaters-november-2023/

 

A new Disney animated musical, a new Marvel Cinematic Universe installment, a new Hunger Games prequel. With 14 wide releases, by Boxoffice PRO‘s count, this might mark the largest amount of new wide releases of any post-pandemic month to date.