The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its about 1/4th of BOSS. Of course this will see better walkups. I am expecting Hunger Games to double this movie. 

So should 30m+ happen?

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

So should 30m+ happen?

Somewhere in 25-30m range. Let us  see how sales go this week. 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

You're that confident in an IM well over 8x? Not saying it won't happen, but even say $6M Thur / $15M TFri wouldn't quite lock in $50M OW

[emoviefan]

40 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

Feel worst case this does GB:AF numbers domestically opening weekend before Thanksgiving. Okay but not great reviews even if WOM is not through the roof it should hold well over TG week. 

[jeffthehat]

On 11/13/2023 at 9:36 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games Boss T-3

 

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 583

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 71 (+13.9%)

 

Comp 

 

0.946x The Marvels T-3 = $6.25m

 

Friday T-5

 

Show count - 38

Seats sold - 635

New sales - 64 (+11.2%)

 

Comp 

 

0.958x The Marvels T-4 = $14.27m

 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-2

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 686

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 103 (+16.2%)

 

Comp 

 

0.979x The Marvels T-2 = $6.46m

 

Friday T-3

 

Show count - 38

Seats sold - 783

New sales - 148 (+23.3%)

 

Comp 

 

1.03x The Marvels T-3 = $15.5m

---

 

Growth looks great vs. Marvels but Marvels underperformed here. Still thinking 5.5-6m previews overall. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by jeffthehat

[Grand Cine]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

 

Now we can make a another comparaison :

 

The Marvels MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 70619/736948 1379110.53 3864 shows +6154

Friday - 56514/1121557 1047460.06 5830 shows +8857

Fantastic Beasts 3 Alpha Previews - 53148/486013 848995.28 2414 shows

 

If the movie work like the Marvels , The previews will be above 6M , now i predict 6,2M . For the Friday , yes The Marvel had the boost of Veteran Day but Hunger Games will have the boost of the beginning of Thanksgiving period so i think with more positive reaction than The Marvel ( at the same time it’s not very difficult) , i think he could have a similar true Friday and a 21M total OD , so with a 10% jump for Saturday and 25% decline ( due to Thanksgiving week) , i think the movie a high 40's OW for sure . If the movie can a same jump in the final days of presales like Transformers , definitely over 50M which it's good for a 100M budget and a hiatus of 8 years .

 

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its about 1/4th of BOSS. Of course this will see better walkups. I am expecting Hunger Games to double this movie. 

 

I think my prediction of around 50M for Hunger Games and 25M for Trolls 3 stay alive

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Grand Cine

[filmlover]

Hunger Games is likely to be a bit frontloaded even as a prequel considering it has a book fanbase that's looking to run out and see it ASAP. Neither this or Trolls are looking like breakouts judging by sales near me (the less said about the sales for the other two openers this weekend the better).

[Noctis]

THG isn't a very frontloaded franchise. 

 

If WOM is good, and it opens to $50m, I can easily see it leg its way to $135m. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 50789/413130 942173.67 2227 shows +6314

Friday - 54790/584307 980808.80 3165 shows +8659

 

This is as of yesterday night. I would say its very good day without any catalyst. This will have better saturday increase and Sunday Drop(next week Monday is like a Summer weekday) as well. Definitely over 50m OW. 

 

Well, there was a national ATOM BOGO deal last night, which disappeared today with the TMobile ATOM $5 off deal...so, a little catalyst...

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

You're that confident in an IM well over 8x? Not saying it won't happen, but even say $6M Thur / $15M TFri wouldn't quite lock in $50M OW

I think previews will go beyond 6m. Let us wait and see. 

[vafrow]

Is there anyone else looking at HG:BoSS in Canada?

 

I'm seeing a lot of confidence in preview numbers well above what I'm seeing in my numbers. I'm just curious if this is another Canadian thing or regional. I'm now sticking with a much smaller radius, which can distort more.

 

I can't think of why this would specifically underperform here.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

Is there anyone else looking at HG:BoSS in Canada?

 

I'm seeing a lot of confidence in preview numbers well above what I'm seeing in my numbers. I'm just curious if this is another Canadian thing or regional. I'm now sticking with a much smaller radius, which can distort more.

 

I can't think of why this would specifically underperform here.

I havent had a chance to take a look at much past few days. Ill see if I can pull up some numbers later to see what i can offer.

[Tinalera]

Balland of Songs and Snakes

Turs Nov 16 Fri Nov 17

Vancouver Canada T-3

 

Quick and Dirty count. I havent been tracking BOSS at all

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	17	408	3346	3754	0.1086
	Fri	4	16	623	3330	3953	0.1576

 

 

 

I dont know what comps would fit that I would have that might fit. 

Edited November 14, 2023 by Tinalera

[misterpepp]

On 11/11/2023 at 12:08 PM, misterpepp said:

Early Access shows (The following are show dates, not sale dates):

-Iron Claw on 12/13

-Ferrari on 12/20

-Unsung Hero on 4/24

Add an American Fiction early access to this list, show date is 12/2.

[Eric Burnett]

Quorum Updates

The Color Purple T-41: 37.77% Awareness

Underdoggs T-73: 21.14%

Bob Marley: One Love T-92: 25.22%

Madame Web T-92: 22.16%

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-136: 36.65%

Garfield T-192: 38.18%

Inside Out 2 T-213: 41.01%

 

Wonka T-31: 56.05% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 60M, 64% chance of 70M, 42% chance of 100M, 7% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 60M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

 

Anyone But You T-38: 21.28% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-38: 53.03% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 60M, 64% chance of 70M, 42% chance of 100M, 7% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

[Grebacio]

9 minutes ago, Eric Danvers said:

 

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-38: 53.03% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 93% chance of 50M, 71% chance of 60M, 64% chance of 70M, 42% chance of 100M, 7% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

[Relevation]

4 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Clearly they mean DOM total 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

Balland of Songs and Snakes

Turs Nov 16 Fri Nov 17

Vancouver Canada T-3

 

Quick and Dirty count. I havent been tracking BOSS at all

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	17	408	3346	3754	0.1086
	Fri	4	16	623	3330	3953	0.1576

 

 

 

I dont know what comps would fit that I would have that might fit. 

 

On a per theatre and per showtime basis, it's doing better than my sample by about 30-40%, which would put it in line with what we're seeing in other markets.

 

Maybe the issue is regional. My sample is also from last night, so I'll see tonight if there's been much of a surge.

[Hilts]

On 11/13/2023 at 9:44 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.99
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	24	106	23	115	14,269	0.81%	25.00%
T-6	24	106	20	135	14,269	0.95%	17.39%
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
MTC1	7	26	+11	54	2,895	1.87%	25.58%
MTC2	4	27	+6	40	4,460	0.90%	17.65%
MTC3	3	12	+7	46	2,536	1.81%	17.95%
Other	10	41	+16	57	4,378	1.30%	39.02%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.682x	=	$2.11m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.583x	=	$2.24m

 

Matinee: 16.24%

3D: 13.20%

 

That's more like it.

 

Trolls Band Together							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$12.09
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	24	106	20	135	14,269	0.95%	17.39%
T-5	24	106	10	145	14,269	1.02%	7.41%
T-4	24	106	12	157	14,269	1.10%	8.28%
T-3	24	106	40	197	14,269	1.38%	25.48%
T-2	24	124	36	233	15,659	1.49%	18.27%
MTC1	7	27	+4	58	2,978	1.95%	7.41%
MTC2	4	27	+8	48	4,460	1.08%	20.00%
MTC3	3	16	+10	56	2,834	1.98%	21.74%
Other	10	54	+14	71	5,387	1.32%	24.56%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.571x	=	$1.77m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.578x	=	$2.23m

 

Matinee: 14.59%

3D: 7.73%

 

Had a calc error on the 3D split hence the drop. I will take the under on $2m previews for now but it's Fri/Sat that's important.

[Hilts]

On 11/13/2023 at 9:46 PM, Hilts said:

 

Thanksgiving							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$12.77
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	13	24	2	17	2,921	0.58%	13.33%
T-6	13	24	2	19	2,921	0.65%	11.76%
T-5	13	24	3	22	2,921	0.75%	15.79%
T-4	13	24	6	28	2,921	0.96%	27.27%
T-3	14	26	4	32	3,089	1.04%	14.29%
MTC1	5	9	+1	25	878	2.85%	4.17%
MTC2	4	7	0	1	959	0.10%	0.00%
MTC3	2	4	+3	5	542	0.92%	150.00%
Other	3	6	0	1	710	0.14%	0.00%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.173x	=	$0.86m
Talk To Me					0.604x	=	$0.75m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.582x	=	$0.44m
The Nun II					0.216x	=	$0.67m
Saw X					0.189x	=	$0.38m
The Exorcist: Believer					0.139x	=	$0.40m

 

Comp average: $580k

 

Thanksgiving							OK
Thursday - showings starting 7pm						ATP	$12.72
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	13	24	2	19	2,921	0.65%	11.76%
T-5	13	24	3	22	2,921	0.75%	15.79%
T-4	13	24	6	28	2,921	0.96%	27.27%
T-3	14	26	4	32	3,089	1.04%	14.29%
T-2	19	33	26	58	3,470	1.67%	81.25%
MTC1	5	9	+15	40	878	4.56%	60.00%
MTC2	4	7	+5	6	959	0.63%	500.00%
MTC3	2	4	+2	7	542	1.29%	40.00%
Other	8	13	+4	5	1,091	0.46%	400.00%
Comps
Insidious: The Red Door					0.210x	=	$1.05m
Talk To Me					0.644x	=	$0.80m
The Last Voyage of the Demeter					0.806x	=	$0.60m
The Nun II					0.272x	=	$0.84m
Saw X					0.251x	=	$0.50m
The Exorcist: Believer					0.209x	=	$0.59m

 

Comp average: $730k

 

Finally some signs of life. I still think $1m previews is doubtful.