The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cookson]

He upped is prediction a little bit for -1 but the drop still seems too high? It’s even keeping the same amount of theaters? Unless Wednesday and Thursday start dropping super hard I don’t see how it can drop like that with its wom. Which is crazy because I would have been over the moon a week ago if someone said it would gross 20m total. Now i want to see this go for 30m. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Cookson

[MovieMan89]

Unless it crashes this weekend, theaters would be nuts to pull it out of screens for the holidays. Especially after several theater owners have been “woe is me”ing about the December slate as it is. I think it can go way bigger than people think if left to a decent screen count all month. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:15 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Boy and the Heron (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2, T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	34	105	501	4786	10.47
Wednesday EA: 8 theaters	8	57	440	1657	26.55
Monday IMAX EA: 3 theaters	4	92	611	1082	56.47
TOTALS:	46	254	1552	7525	20.62

 

Thursday comps:

1.79x Godzilla Minus One (THU): ??? (Assuming $800-900k previews, $1.43-1.61 Million)

0.99x Napoleon: $2.97 Million

0.65x Killers of the Flower Moon: $1.69 Million

0.33x MI7: $2.3 Million

1.36x Asteroid City: $1.49 Million

 

Trending in a great direction, keeps rising against comps. Don't really know how to comp the EA because tonight's EA was at T-1 hour, but just great numbers all around. Expecting $1-1.5 million in EA from my market.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Boy and the Heron (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	44	162*	663	5806	11.42

*New Tickets are over two days of sales

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		253	N/A	38.16
MTC1:		240	N/A	36.2
Marcus:		117	N/A	17.65
Alamo:		136	N/A	20.51
Other chains:		170	N/A	25.64

 

Finally stopped being lazy and actually added the chain + PLF distribution lol. ATP will be higher than Godzilla Minus One, its PLF percentage at T-1 was around 13%. Other than that, healthy distribution all around with an obvious overperformance at the one Alamo theater.

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	67.42

 

Comps (3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.71x Godzilla Minus One (THU): Assuming $800-900k previews, $1.37-1.54 Million (46%)

0.73x Napoleon: $2.18 Million (124%)

0.6x Killers of the Flower Moon: $1.56 Million (64%)

0.29x MI7: $2.02 Million (69%)

1.18x Asteroid City: $1.3 Million (105%)

 

Disappointed couple of days after a really strong run until then in this market. I would put Thursday previews at $1.25-1.5 Million right now, since those Napoleon and MI7 comps will drop like crazy with walk-ups tomorrow. But we will see, I will have an update tomorrow with my final prediction.

[MovieMan89]

Hopefully this weekend will show theaters  that every Nov holdover save for maybe BOSS should be losing screens before -1. 

[Shawn Robbins]

5 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

I just saw the newly posted Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast. Most of it makes sense (Boy & the Heron pinpoint of $10.2 M, etc.), but I cannot get my head around the prediction for Godzilla Minus One to drop 72% and only earn $3.2 million this coming weekend -- below Trolls, Wish and Napoleon. @Shawn, I'd love to hear more about how your team came up with that number.

 

Box Office Pro Weekend Forecast Link

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 10	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Boy and the Heron	GKIDS	$10,200,000	$10,200,000	~2,100	NEW
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	Lionsgate	$9,500,000	$135,600,000	~3,500	-33%
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé	AMC Theatres Distribution	$6,300,000	$29,300,000	~2,539	-71%
Trolls Band Together	Universal Pictures	$6,000,000	$82,900,000	~3,500	-23%
Wish	Disney	$5,300,000	$49,300,000	~3,400	-31%
Napoleon	Sony Pictures & Apple	$4,500,000	$53,300,000	~3,300	-38%
Godzilla Minus One	Toho International	$3,200,000	$18,800,000	~2,400	-72%
The Shift	Angel Studios	$1,800,000	$8,200,000	~2,450	-58%
Silent Night	Lionsgate	$1,500,000	$5,500,000	~1,870	-50%
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures & TriStar	$1,500,000	$30,800,000	~2,000	-43%

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am surprised by that prediction from @Shawn. It does not seem plausible looking at weekday holds. 

 

I bumped it to $4.3m shortly after that went online. That initial number was part of an old draft I had before submitting for publication. 

 

I'm open to hearing what comps you both have in mind and reasoning behind them. 

 

I'm the only person who manages BOP forecasts so I'm not going to get 'em all spot on, but I am primarily looking at Suzume's second weekend earlier this year. Adding in consideration of foreign film frontloaded tendencies, losing some premium screens where it has played best, opening weekend being inflated by Early Access and Thursday, and potential crossover competition with Boy and the Heron which is selling very well.

 

I could definitely see $5m+ but it's always better to lowball in these cases and I just didn't see a great comp in the little time I had to dedicate to what is honestly not a forecast my clients are paying much attention to on what's probably going to be close to the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

 

But again... fire away with some comps and ranges. Maybe a bump up tomorrow morning could make sense.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

I bumped it to $4.3m shortly after that went online. That initial number was part of an old draft I had before submitting for publication. 

 

I'm open to hearing what comps you both have in mind and reasoning behind them. 

 

I'm the only person who manages BOP forecasts so I'm not going to get 'em all spot on, but I am primarily looking at Suzume's second weekend earlier this year. Adding in consideration of foreign film frontloaded tendencies, losing some premium screens where it has played best, opening weekend being inflated by Early Access and Thursday, and potential crossover competition with Boy and the Heron which is selling very well.

 

I could definitely see $5m+ but it's always better to lowball in these cases and I just didn't see a great comp in the little time I had to dedicate to what is honestly not a forecast my clients are paying much attention to on what's probably going to be close to the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

 

But again... fire away with some comps and ranges. Maybe a bump up tomorrow morning could make sense.

The evidence would basically be amazing holds since Sunday indicate wildfire WOM spreading.  They don’t look like anything frontloaded, but no I’m sure there’s no good comp since when was the last time a foreign movie way over performed on OW and got great WOM? 

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

I bumped it to $4.3m shortly after that went online. That initial number was part of an old draft I had before submitting for publication. 

 

I'm open to hearing what comps you both have in mind and reasoning behind them. 

 

I'm the only person who manages BOP forecasts so I'm not going to get 'em all spot on, but I am primarily looking at Suzume's second weekend earlier this year. Adding in consideration of foreign film frontloaded tendencies, losing some premium screens where it has played best, opening weekend being inflated by Early Access and Thursday, and potential crossover competition with Boy and the Heron which is selling very well.

 

I could definitely see $5m+ but it's always better to lowball in these cases and I just didn't see a great comp in the little time I had to dedicate to what is honestly not a forecast my clients are paying much attention to on what's probably going to be close to the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

 

But again... fire away with some comps and ranges. Maybe a bump up tomorrow morning could make sense.

 

This is all very sound reasoning if Minus One would be behaving like a "normal" foreign language release. But it isnt behaving like one so far and i dont think theres a good comp for this. Normally, it should have been extremely frontloaded on OW considering its a Toho Godzilla movie, aka the niche built-in fanbase rushed out to see it. But since its OD, it has shown excellent daily holds, which normally shoudnt happen. The only explanation imo is the amazing WOM and i do think we could be looking at a really surprising hold this weekend.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-2: 22.98% Awareness

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-16: 63.78%

Migration T-16: 33.6%

Ferrari T-19: 27.92%

I.S.S. T-44: 16.06%

Dune: Part Two T-86: 36.7%

Mickey 17 T-114: 6.79%

Challengers T-142: 20.08%

 

Night Swim T-30: 27.29% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

 

The Book of Clarence T-37: 17.04% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

[Brainbug]

Just now, Eric Wonka said:

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-2: 22.98% Awareness

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-16: 63.78%

Migration T-16: 33.6%

Ferrari T-19: 27.92%

I.S.S. T-44: 16.06%

Dune: Part Two T-86: 36.7%

Mickey 17 T-114: 6.79%

Challengers T-142: 20.08%

 

Night Swim T-30: 27.29% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 69% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

 

The Book of Clarence T-37: 17.04% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Question because im not really familiar with Quorum: At what time before the release do they sample data for an upcoming movie? Two months, three months before? Ill be honest, this is more of an indirect question when they will analyse Godzilla x Kongs numbers, but im generally curious.

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Question because im not really familiar with Quorum: At what time before the release do they sample data for an upcoming movie? Two months, three months before? Ill be honest, this is more of an indirect question when they will analyse Godzilla x Kongs numbers, but im generally curious.

This explains it better than I can. They also already have a GxK tracking number already, though tracking this far out typically doesn’t mean too much, at least if you want specifics.

 

https://thequorum.com/tracking-103-survey-schedule/

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

 

I bumped it to $4.3m shortly after that went online. That initial number was part of an old draft I had before submitting for publication. 

 

I'm open to hearing what comps you both have in mind and reasoning behind them. 

 

I'm the only person who manages BOP forecasts so I'm not going to get 'em all spot on, but I am primarily looking at Suzume's second weekend earlier this year. Adding in consideration of foreign film frontloaded tendencies, losing some premium screens where it has played best, opening weekend being inflated by Early Access and Thursday, and potential crossover competition with Boy and the Heron which is selling very well.

 

I could definitely see $5m+ but it's always better to lowball in these cases and I just didn't see a great comp in the little time I had to dedicate to what is honestly not a forecast my clients are paying much attention to on what's probably going to be close to the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

 

But again... fire away with some comps and ranges. Maybe a bump up tomorrow morning could make sense.

 

Well, since you asked...

 

$6M.

 

Do I have a comp?  Nope.  

 

I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large. 

 

But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...

 

But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.

[MovieMan89]

Does Heron overlap a lot though? Most friends im hearing interested in -1 are not the artsy type at all for a Miyazaki movie. It’s like action movie buffs 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Does Heron overlap a lot though? Most friends im hearing interested in -1 are not the artsy type at all for a Miyazaki movie. It’s like action movie buffs 

 

And I think that's where the growth will be.  Just like Sound of Freedom moved out of religion to crime thriller folks, I think Godzilla will move out of the die hard Godzilla foreign film folks to the generic monster/action film audience.  It's why I said Sound of Freedom went up weekend 2.  While I said $6M for this, it's b/c I don't know how much it can pull in that wider audience - maybe it can pull in large swaths and can come in for a weekend 2 increase...nothing would shock me, except Shawn's original $3.2M...

[vafrow]

Update on Aquaman for Cineplex advance tickets.

 

It looks like they only have it up for advanc sale in a handful of IMAX screens. Some of those only have it up for the Thursday. A couple have it up until the next week, including Christmas. 

 

I'm really unsure on what's going on for it. This might be another situation where individual locations may have gotten mixed signals, similar to what happened with those Taylor Swift matinees. Also, some of the locations only have a 4:00 pm matinee, and nothing else.

 

We'll be getting full Thursday sets early next week, so this will all get sorted, but it remains another bizarre occurrence.

 

On another random note, Animal is being expanded here this weekend. My local is playing it this weekend, and it's only the second time I can recall it getting an Indian film. It's a very multicultural area, but the other bigger locations are known to get the foreign films, so nothing usually makes it here. But, Animal did massive business in the region last weekend, and I think they're trying to capitalize.

 

It's already sold 40 tickets for Friday night, which looks like is more than everything else combined that night so far.

[el sid]

Wonka, counted today for Thursday, December 14. 8 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 82 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 86 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 12 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 201 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 219 (8 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 616.

Up so-so 13% since Monday.
Comps (always counted for Thursday): Haunted Mansion (3.1M) had with 12 days left 194 sold tickets = ca. 8.7M for Wonka. As I said that's too good because Wonka is a well-known name/brand.
Uncharted (3.7M) had with 15 days left 454 sold tickets.
 

The Little Mermaid (10.3M) had on Monday of the release week (= 7 days left for Wonka to come closer) 1.505 sold tickets,
Dungeons & Dragons (4.1M) had on the same day 724 sold tickets
and Dolittle (925k) had also on Monday of the release week 156 sold tickets.
My guess is that Wonka will have at least 700 sold tickets next Monday. With that number Wonka would get 4.2M (compared to Dolittle), 4M (Dungeons & Dragons) and 4.85M (compared to TLM) from previews.

I used the same comps which makes sense today because almost nothing changed. But for explanation: On the one hand, the jump in my theaters after the reviews dropped was ok but not great. OTOH I'm now more than confident that it reaches 700+ tickets next Monday which means 4M+ from comps previews-wise.

Edited December 7, 2023 by el sid

[harrisonisdead]

46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, since you asked...

 

$6M.

 

Do I have a comp?  Nope.  

 

I mean, I was tempted to give a Sound of Freedom comp - aka, a movie that normally appeals to a very narrow base, which came out of nowhere right before open with large presales and decent reviews, and then grew over OW from spectacular WOM that extended past its narrow base and into the public at large. 

 

But, that comp would have to be an increase from this weekend...and as you said, The Boy and The Heron is gonna overlap a lot:)...

 

But, you did ask for a comp, and since we don't have a foreign movie that broke through its tiny market to the GA at large, I got more creative.

I don't think there has been or ever will be a movie for which Sound of Freedom makes sense as a comp, especially comparing to this soon in release. It may be a good reminder that crazy things can happen at the box office, but perpetually virtually useless as a comp.

[DAJK]

Also @Shawn -1 is getting a massive expansion in Canada this weekend. Platform release last weekend (I think only 11 cineplex locations) but it is expanding into a pretty wide release this weekend. That will also help soften the drop.

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

I don't think there has been or ever will be a movie for which Sound of Freedom makes sense as a comp, especially comparing to this soon in release. It may be a good reminder that crazy things can happen at the box office, but perpetually virtually useless as a comp.

 

It's why I didn't "comp" it and said there was no comp for my suggested number - notice, my suggested number is nowhere near where SoF equivalent would comp, too...

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

I bumped it to $4.3m shortly after that went online. That initial number was part of an old draft I had before submitting for publication. 

 

I'm open to hearing what comps you both have in mind and reasoning behind them. 

 

I'm the only person who manages BOP forecasts so I'm not going to get 'em all spot on, but I am primarily looking at Suzume's second weekend earlier this year. Adding in consideration of foreign film frontloaded tendencies, losing some premium screens where it has played best, opening weekend being inflated by Early Access and Thursday, and potential crossover competition with Boy and the Heron which is selling very well.

 

I could definitely see $5m+ but it's always better to lowball in these cases ...

Here's what I wrote in the weekdays thread earlier fwiw

12 hours ago, M37 said:

In this early December period, most non-family films have an approximate 7-8x Weekend/Weekday baseline ratio. Last week, HG:Boss turned a $1.85M Wed into a $14.17M weekend, or 7.86x, and its Monday number is solid, projecting to a ~$9M/-35% weekend or so

 

That Godzilla topped it isn't weakness for HG, but strength for G-1, the WOM kicking in, which based off that Monday number is on track for a $8M+ second weekend (following a $9.3M OW minus previews). However, it is losing IMAX, and especially for new releases Wed is the key number (and can drop a lot from Monday), so not going to call for that just yet, but at least $6.5M+ looks good to me pending Wed/Thu dailies

 

But looking at the direct comp with Suzame, the ratio of their daily grosses has gone from 1.79x for TFri to 2.29x Sat, 2.41x Sun, 2.69x Mon, and 3.14x Tue.  Even if G-1 falls back down to the ~2.5x range for Wed (which would project to a ~$4.0M 2nd weekend), I don't think its reasonable to expect a similar -25% Thursday and pathetic +28% increase for Friday, even with the loss of IMAX shows and Heron competition

 

Meanwhile, G-1 is also gaining in dailies vs Smile (.42, .43, .51, .56, .57), and 0.5 of Smile's second weekend would be over $9M, before adjusting for IDP Day and IMAX loss. I like the Smile comp because it started out as a basic horror flick, but the WOM expanded the audience pool and led to a very leggy run, and I think G-1 has already broken free of the more niche anime-adjacent/Godzilla-fan type audience, to the broader action and/or monster crowd as @TwoMisfits suggested, despite the foreign language barrier

 

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

what is honestly not a forecast my clients are paying much attention to on what's probably going to be close to the lowest grossing weekend of the year.

And on flip side here on BOT, because it's going to be a terrible weekend leading into what is expected to be a fairly weak Christmas season, we have not much else to pay attention to other than a potential nice little run for G-1

Edited December 7, 2023 by M37

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

I don't think there has been or ever will be a movie for which Sound of Freedom makes sense as a comp, especially comparing to this soon in release. It may be a good reminder that crazy things can happen at the box office, but perpetually virtually useless as a comp.

But likewise, we might be in unprecedented territory for -1. I say again, when did a foreign movie last overperform so much in opening and get rave WOM from domestic audience? Crouching Tiger maybe? Obviously not comparable for opening.