The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-10	Jax	5	47	3	80	8,044	0.99%
		Phx	6	40	3	91	7,757	1.17%
		Ral	8	42	2	77	6,233	1.24%
	Total		19	129	8	248	22,034	1.13%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	9	5	104	1,802	5.77%
		Phx	1	2	8	52	618	8.41%
		Ral	2	2	0	49	412	11.89%
	Total		8	13	13	205	2,832	7.24%

 

T-10 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.397x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .502x (4.41m)

 - F9 - .561x (4.22m)

 - Dune - .701x (3.72m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .741x (4.85m)

 - John Wick 4 - .461x (4.11m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .758x (4.5m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .539x (3.31m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.59m

 

Guess I'll go ahead to daily posts for this one as we close in on it.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-9	Jax	5	47	2	82	8,044	1.02%
		Phx	6	40	5	96	7,757	1.24%
		Ral	8	42	8	85	6,233	1.36%
	Total		19	129	15	263	22,034	1.19%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	9	4	108	1,802	5.99%
		Phx	1	2	5	57	618	9.22%
		Ral	2	2	0	49	412	11.89%
	Total		8	13	9	214	2,832	7.56%

 

T-9 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.511x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .501x (4.4m)

 - F9 - .552x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .696x (3.69m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .698x (4.57m)

 - John Wick 4 - .456x (4.06m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .744x (4.42m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .528x (3.24m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 4.4m

[JonathanMB]

59 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

They were cancelled because of the Disney buyout. 2 and 3 were still supposed to come out in the fall of 2013 up until Lucasfilm was made to shift gears to focus on Force Awakens.

 

It made $22M opening/$43M total, which is actually one of the better 3D re-releases IIRC? I think only Lion King and Jurassic Park were bigger. Certainly bigger than any re-release in recent memory. If it can top even $6M this weekend that's better than any recent re-release outside of Avatar.

 

3 hours ago, Alexander said:

Well, would The Fall Guy + If + Furiosa opening between 30-35M be really that surprising? I don't think. And Apes maybe 43-48.

 

Fall Guy and If opening in that range would be similar to Challengers opening to "only" $15M, in that that is the current typical range for that kind of movie post-COVID (original/based on material with no significant fanbase) but pre-release hype made it feel like it should open higher. Furiosa and Apes opening in those ranges would be a little more disappointing since they're new installments in a franchise whose most recent installments opened higher than that range, but those were also several years ago, so maybe tastes have changed. Guess we'll see soon enough

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-16	Jax	5	22	14	14	3,641	0.38%
		Phx	6	23	5	5	3,523	0.14%
		Ral	8	27	26	26	3,939	0.66%
	Total		19	72	45	45	11,103	0.41%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Garfield (Total) - .833x

 - TMNT (Total) - .15x (737k)

 - Sonic 2 - .242x (1.55m)

 

Regal sales - 25

[TwoMisfits]

Local Cinemark final sets for this weekend - Fall Guy got ONE extra late night showing at my PLF for 2.25 screens (and 9 showings Fri/Sun and 11 Sat) - at the non-PLF, it got an extra screen to have 2 screens (8 showings Fri/Sun and 9 Sat)...

 

So, even if walk ups are bonkers, there's just not gonna be a lot of open space to walk into...aka, Cinemark does not have faith this is breaking out wildly above its current presales-to-weekend-multiplier landing spot (aka, no $50M+ incoming, I don't think)...

[JonathanMB]

double post

Edited April 30 by JonathanMB

[AniNate]

Apes has a completely new creative team and War had already done much worse than Dawn despite similarly great reviews, so I definitely think expectations should be checked there

 

 

Edited April 30 by AniNate

[filmlover]

I've suddenly seen a lot of ads for Furiosa this past week already so WB's certainly trying with it. How much it'll translate into ticket-buying interest remains to be seen.

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
IF	T-16	Jax	5	22	14	14	3,641	0.38%
		Phx	6	23	5	5	3,523	0.14%
		Ral	8	27	26	26	3,939	0.66%
	Total		19	72	45	45	11,103	0.41%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Garfield (Total) - .833x

 - TMNT (Total) - .15x (737k)

 - Sonic 2 - .242x (1.55m)

 

Regal sales - 25

Is Regal normally that much of total sales?

Though I guess doesn't really matter with so low sales.

[Boxofficerules]

What are the chances of Tarot surprising this weekend?

[katnisscinnaplex]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is Regal normally that much of total sales?

Though I guess doesn't really matter with so low sales.

For Garfield it's at 24/100 

Fall Guy is 65/102

[katnisscinnaplex]

35 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances of Tarot surprising this weekend?

If expectations are high - very likely.  Low expectations - probably won't be surprised.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

For Garfield it's at 24/100 

Fall Guy is 65/102

Hmm. So no real impact it seems.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances of Tarot surprising this weekend?

Whoops I thought Tarot was the 10th lol

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (EA) - 79/1,171 (5 shows)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .84x (1.05m)

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 62/7,319 (37 shows)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .363x (1.21m)

 - Beast - 2.696x (2.49m)

 - Massive Talent - 2.214x (1.85m)

 

 Bullet Train total is at 2.26m (without any adjustment)

 

Tarot - 10/2,757 (18 shows)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 474/3,148 (20 shows)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .506x (3.34m)

 - Avatar 2 - .109x (3.96m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .115x (3.76m)

 - Batman - .088x (3.09m)

 

(Not often do I look at anything before T-1 so not too many comps available)

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

What are the chances of Tarot surprising this weekend?

they sure are promoting the hell out of it with YouTube ads

[emoviefan]

I think the walkups will surprise for the Fall Guy but that may not mean much since our expectations are going to be so low. Like 25-30 for the weekend will be the guess so if it does 30-35 it will be a surprise even though that is a not good at all considering the budget.And at that point hope the WOM is really good and you can get people to come off the fence and check it out.  Not holding my breath though.

[Flip]

7 hours ago, emoviefan said:

You are right. It's just one movie. I am not even sure why I care that much. Have not seen the movie yet.Plan to this weekend and hope I really enjoy it and agree with the positive reviews. I think I am just going down the rabbit hole of how terrible the  BO is right now and really hoped it would break out and give some life to the marketplace. Maybe the walkups will surprise and it will have great WOM and legs or maybe it will get beat by TPM this weekend. Will see.

I feel like if Fall Guy fails it sets the bar for success very high for other original action movies. If a strongly reviewed movie with zero competition starring the guy who stole the show in the biggest movie of last year can’t even open to 35m, how are less appealing films going to succeed?

[AniNate]

It's a mistake to view any kind of genre as a monolith. Maybe this one doesn't hit but there's another action movie that does. Every situation is unique.

 

The reality is the future of movies does not ride on this one succeeding. Hopefully it does but if it doesn't there will still be plenty of other stuff in the next year that can.

[Flip]

23 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Fall Guy (EA) - 79/1,171 (5 shows)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - .84x (1.05m)

 

Fall Guy (Thu) - 62/7,319 (37 shows)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - .363x (1.21m)

 - Beast - 2.696x (2.49m)

 - Massive Talent - 2.214x (1.85m)

 

 Bullet Train total is at 2.26m (without any adjustment)

 

Tarot - 10/2,757 (18 shows)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

 

Phantom Menace (Fri) - 474/3,148 (20 shows)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .506x (3.34m)

 - Avatar 2 - .109x (3.96m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .115x (3.76m)

 - Batman - .088x (3.09m)

 

(Not often do I look at anything before T-1 so not too many comps available)

Anime is good idea for comps, I’d expect walkups to be similar if not a little stronger for TPM

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's a mistake to view any kind of genre as a monolith. Maybe this one doesn't hit but there's another action movie that does. Every situation is unique.

 

The reality is the future of movies does not ride on this one succeeding. Hopefully it does but if it doesn't there will still be plenty of other stuff in the next year that can.

And that next action movie to succeed will be Bad Boys Ride Or Die a presold no risk at all movie for people. The new one despite the strong reviews and buzz people are like eh don't want to chance it.