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OMG this user again! 🤦🏻‍♂️ I think we should start to ignore him/her. Saying "I'm not pessimistic. I'm just asking", but also "It's doing me a concern" at the same time. Lol

 

Corpse has always said that this week adult movies would get greater increase than family/kids movies, because kids were already on school holiday last week.

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3 minutes ago, catlover said:

OMG this user again! 🤦🏻‍♂️ I think we should start to ignore him/her. Saying "I'm not pessimistic. I'm just asking", but also "It's doing me a concern" at the same time. Lol

 

Corpse has always said that this week adult movies would get greater increase than family/kids movies, because kids were already on school holiday last week.

I  understood this very well and I already expected low increase for this whole week. But do you find it weird that this week monday and tuesday it still jumped very high but wednesday it doesn't? 

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52 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

I  understood this very well and I already expected low increase for this whole week. But do you find it weird that this week monday and tuesday it still jumped very high but wednesday it doesn't? 

No, because all you need to do is look at where it jumped from. Corpse already explained that well enough.

 

All you really need to do is look at how the past week went:

Frozen made 90m on Monday, 105m on Tuesday, 195m on Wednesday, 170m on Thursday and 180m on Friday. In other words: last week saw a giant boost happening right from Wednesday on. The first two weekdays were a whole lot smaller than the last three weekdays. This means that there is plenty of room to jump on Monday or Tuesday, while not so much growth the rest of the week, simply because the point of comparison is much larger to begin with.

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16 minutes ago, George Parr said:

No, because all you need to do is look at where it jumped from. Corpse already explained that well enough.

 

All you really need to do is look at how the past week went:

Frozen made 90m on Monday, 105m on Tuesday, 195m on Wednesday, 170m on Thursday and 180m on Friday. In other words: last week saw a giant boost happening right from Wednesday on. The first two weekdays were a whole lot smaller than the last three weekdays. This means that there is plenty of room to jump on Monday or Tuesday, while not so much growth the rest of the week, simply because the point of comparison is much larger to begin with.

Ok. Thanks for your reply. The monday this week is surely very interesting, it didn't just jump much as you expected but its also higher than Sat, Sun and double the last wednesday which was already very big. 

 

Edit: oh.... not only F2, but SW9 too...  Both of their numbers for today (new year day) so far are smaller than monday.

Edited by PKMLover
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Per Corpse
 
New Year Week - Daily Estimates (12/30-1/03)

Monday (12/30)
¥380,000,000 ($3.5 million), +76%, ¥3,580,000,000 ($32.8 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 11
¥335,000,000 ($3.1 million), +292%, ¥9,880,000,000 ($90.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 39
¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), +51%, ¥880,000,000 ($8.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 11
¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 04
¥x55,000,000 ($505,000), +117%, ¥540,000,000 ($5.0 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 10
¥x45,000,000 ($410,000), +646%, ¥435,000,000 ($4.0 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 18
¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), +111%, ¥865,000,000 ($7.9 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 25
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +102%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.3 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 18
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 04
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +242%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.3 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 32
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +130%, ¥640,000,000 ($5.9 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 18
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), +131%, ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 11


Tuesday (12/31): New Year's Eve
¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), +31%, ¥3,795,000,000 ($34.8 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 12
¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), +48%, ¥10,040,000,000 ($92.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 40
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), -17%, ¥915,000,000 ($8.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 12
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 05
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +44%, ¥570,000,000 ($5.3 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +147%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 19
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -21%, ¥885,000,000 ($8.1 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 26
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), +12%, ¥658,000,000 ($6.1 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 19
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -13%, ¥707,000,000 ($6.5 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 19
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), +44%, ¥916,000,000 ($8.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 33
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 05
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), +13%, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 12


Wednesday (01/01): New Year's Day
¥320,000,000 ($2.9 million), +86%, ¥4,115,000,000 ($37.7 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 13
¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), +14%, ¥10,255,000,000 ($94.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 41
¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥345,000,000 ($3.2 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 06
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -38%, ¥945,000,000 ($8.6 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 13
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +35%, ¥688,000,000 ($6.4 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 20
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -10%, ¥732,000,000 ($6.7 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 20
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +04%, ¥595,000,000 ($5.5 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 12
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +10%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 20
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +18%, ¥936,000,000 ($8.6 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 34
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), 0, ¥162,000,000 ($1.5 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 06
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), -64%, ¥897,000,000 ($8.2 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 27
¥x11,000,000 ($100,000), -03%, ¥171,000,000 ($1.6 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 13


% changes versus same day last week.
Note: New Year Week is one of the 3 biggest weeks at the Japan Box-Office, alongside Golden Week in late-April and Obon Festival in mid-August, respectively.
 
 
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New Year Week - Daily Estimates (12/30-1/03)

Monday (12/30)
¥380,000,000 ($3.5 million), +76%, ¥3,580,000,000 ($32.8 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 11
¥335,000,000 ($3.1 million), +292%, ¥9,880,000,000 ($90.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 39
¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), +51%, ¥880,000,000 ($8.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 11
¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 04
¥x55,000,000 ($505,000), +117%, ¥540,000,000 ($5.0 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 10
¥x45,000,000 ($410,000), +646%, ¥435,000,000 ($4.0 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 18
¥x40,000,000 ($370,000), +111%, ¥865,000,000 ($7.9 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 25
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +102%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.3 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 18
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 04
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +242%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.3 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 32
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +130%, ¥640,000,000 ($5.9 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 18
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), +131%, ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 11


Tuesday (12/31): New Year's Eve
¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), +31%, ¥3,795,000,000 ($34.8 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 12
¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), +48%, ¥10,040,000,000 ($92.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 40
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), -17%, ¥915,000,000 ($8.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 12
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 05
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +44%, ¥570,000,000 ($5.3 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 11
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +147%, ¥460,000,000 ($4.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 19
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -21%, ¥885,000,000 ($8.1 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 26
¥x18,000,000 ($165,000), +12%, ¥658,000,000 ($6.1 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 19
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -13%, ¥707,000,000 ($6.5 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 19
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), +44%, ¥916,000,000 ($8.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 33
¥x15,000,000 ($135,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 05
¥x08,000,000 ($x75,000), +13%, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 12


Wednesday (01/01): New Year's Day
¥320,000,000 ($2.9 million), +86%, ¥4,115,000,000 ($37.7 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 13
¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million), +14%, ¥10,255,000,000 ($94.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 41
¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥345,000,000 ($3.2 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 06
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -38%, ¥945,000,000 ($8.6 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 13
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +35%, ¥688,000,000 ($6.4 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 20
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -10%, ¥732,000,000 ($6.7 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 20
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +04%, ¥595,000,000 ($5.5 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 12
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +10%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 20
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +18%, ¥936,000,000 ($8.6 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 34
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), 0, ¥162,000,000 ($1.5 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 06
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), -64%, ¥897,000,000 ($8.2 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 27
¥x11,000,000 ($100,000), -03%, ¥171,000,000 ($1.6 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 13


Thursday (01/02): Bank Holiday
¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), +70%, ¥4,415,000,000 ($40.5 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 14
¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), +35%, ¥10,480,000,000 ($96.1 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 42
¥x75,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥420,000,000 ($3.9 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 07
¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), -15%, ¥985,000,000 ($9.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 14
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +15%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.8 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 13
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +60%, ¥718,000,000 ($6.7 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 21
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +26%, ¥757,000,000 ($7.0 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 21
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -01%, ¥510,000,000 ($4.6 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 21
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), +17%, ¥956,000,000 ($8.8 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 35
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -32%, ¥914,000,000 ($8.4 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 28
¥x13,000,000 ($120,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 07
¥x11,000,000 ($100,000), +01%, ¥182,000,000 ($1.7 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 14


% changes versus same day last week.
Note: New Year Week is one of the 3 biggest weeks at the Japan Box-Office, alongside Golden Week in late-April and Obon Festival in mid-August, respectively.
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Friday (01/03): Bank Holiday
¥330,000,000 ($3.0 million), +54%, ¥4,745,000,000 ($43.5 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 15
¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), +56%, ¥10,760,000,000 ($98.7 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 43
¥x90,000,000 ($825,000), +34%, ¥510,000,000 ($4.7 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 08
¥x50,000,000 ($460,000), -02%, ¥1,035,000,000 ($9.5 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 15
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +36%, ¥660,000,000 ($6.1 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 14
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +60%, ¥792,000,000 ($7.3 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 22
¥x35,000,000 ($320,000), +30%, ¥545,000,000 ($4.9 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 22
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +64%, ¥748,000,000 ($7.0 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 22
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -02%, ¥939,000,000 ($8.6 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 29
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +43%, ¥981,000,000 ($9.0 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 35
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -40%, ¥192,000,000 ($1.7 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 08
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), +43%, ¥198,000,000 ($1.8 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 15


Very strong New Year Week this year. New Year Day (Wednesday) itself was a bit weaker than expected, but the following Bank Holidays (Thursday and Friday) made up for that. And due to the strength of the dailies from Wednesday through Friday, I'm not expecting many increases this weekend, and if there are any, they should be pretty small.

A short analysis for some films:

>Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker performed very well this week, and should end up outgrossing The Last Jedi. It should be around ¥5.3/5.4 billion ($49/50 million) after Sunday, and I'm expecting a finish around ¥8 billion ($75 million).

>Frozen II did what it needed this week to keep the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone in play (in play, not locked). It should be around ¥11.2/11.3 billion ($103/104 million) after Sunday. Its weekdays will become noticeably weaker soon, but I'd be surprised if it collapses over the weekends.

>Welcome Back, Tora-san! performed strongly over the weekdays, unsurprisingly given its older audience, and came close to earning 3x its opening weekend these past five days. I didn't speak about it last weekend, but this is the 50th film in the Otoko wa Tsurai yo franchise (the third most attended franchise in the market with over 81 million admissions now), and the first entry in the series since 1995. Yoji Yamada, now 88, returned as director. Welcome Back, Tora-san celebrates his 86th theatrical release since his first film back in 1961, 59-years ago.

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Saturday (01/04)
¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), -10%, ¥5,025,000,000 ($46.1 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 16
¥245,000,000 ($2.3 million), +07%, ¥11,005,000,000 ($101.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 44
¥x80,000,000 ($735,000), +36%, ¥590,000,000 ($5.4 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 09
¥x45,000,000 ($410,000), -32%, ¥1,080,000,000 ($9.9 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 16
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -31%, ¥690,000,000 ($6.4 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 15
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), +05%, ¥822,000,000 ($7.6 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 23
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -08%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 23
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -20%, ¥964,000,000 ($8.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 30
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), +03%, ¥773,000,000 ($7.2 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 23
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -05%, ¥1,001,000,000 ($9.2 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 37
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), -58%, ¥208,000,000 ($1.9 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 08
¥x12,000,000 ($110,000), -03%, ¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 16


% changes versus same day last week.
Note: New Year Week is one of the 3 biggest weeks at the Japan Box-Office, alongside Golden Week in late-April and Obon Festival in mid-August, respectively.
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This is what Corpse said at the beginning of the holiday:

On 12/28/2019 at 12:14 AM, Tower said:

From Corpse:

 

So, coming out of the holiday period (January 5th), it should be somewhere around ¥10.8 billion ($99/100 million). That'll be about ¥800 million, or 7%, behind Weathering With You after seven weeks in release. Its weekdays will begin to drop-off again, but after the initial post-New Year weekend drop on the weekend of Jan. 11-12th, its weekends should remain pretty strong, and should ultimately lead it to around ¥15 billion (which is almost $140 million).

Again, this is just a very rough, normal projection. I think its gross during New Year will end up a little better than I projected, and I do expect a small increase next weekend, so I wouldn't be surprised if it broke ¥11 billion by January 5th. That should be the milestone to watch. At the end of the holiday period (January 5th): If it's below ¥11 billion, it'll struggle to beat Weathering With You. If it's above ¥11 billion, it's likely to beat Weathering With You.

Now that we're at the end of it, and Frozen II is estimated to have passed ¥11b comfortably, beating WWY (and a ¥15b total) is more likely.

Edited by catlover
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8 hours ago, catlover said:

This is what Corpse said at the beginning of the holiday:

Now that we're at the end of it, and Frozen II is estimated to have passed ¥11b comfortably, beating WWY (and a ¥15b total) is more likely.

 

 

So GKDIS title of biggest hit of the year for WwY will remain valid by the time WwY was released in USA

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Sunday (01/05)
¥210,000,000 ($1.9 million), -30%, ¥11,215,000,000 ($102.9 million), Frozen II (Disney) Day 45
¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), -47%, ¥5,225,000,000 ($47.9 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) Day 17
¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), -04%, ¥650,000,000 ($6.0 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san (Shochiku) Day 10
¥x45,000,000 ($410,000), -46%, ¥1,125,000,000 ($10.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) Day 17
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -48%, ¥720,000,000 ($6.7 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) Day 16
¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), -25%, ¥852,000,000 ($7.9 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) Day 24
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -35%, ¥989,000,000 ($9.0 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) Day 31
¥x25,000,000 ($230,000), -40%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.4 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) Day 24
¥x20,000,000 ($185,000), -37%, ¥793,000,000 ($7.4 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) Day 24
¥x17,000,000 ($155,000), -42%, ¥1,018,000,000 ($9.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) Day 38
¥x16,000,000 ($145,000), -55%, ¥224,000,000 ($2.0 million), Shinkansen-Transforming... Shinkalion: The Mythically Fast ALFA-X (Toho Video Div.) Day 10
¥x10,000,000 ($x90,000), -34%, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Toho-Towa) Day 17

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12 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

This week will drop 55% Approx. $125-130mn closing i.e. ¥13.5-14 Billion IMO.

 

Weathering with You ¥14.05 Billion. So I will bet my money on WWY unless some miracle.

In your current WW projection for F2, the Japan gross in that OS total gross is $125-130M too? 

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