The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

12 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean I’ve said for weeks that one of those three films would get the short end of the stick. I always had Incredibles 2 as the sure bet with JW2 or Ant-man getting the short end. The question for me was always which film would it be. For a moment I thought it would be JW2 but now it’s looking like JW2 coming before Ant-man paid off for JW2 and Ant-man is gonna be the odd man out. But it’s too early to tell and it could get a last minute push in sales plus i imagine it’s gonna have really really good legs ala SMH since there’s nothing in front of it really. So it may not get a pretty OW but it’ll have really good legs to show for it, I’d imagine. 

 

I think Ant-man should have just gotten that first week August release to be honest. Gives it a ton of space between it and I2 plus JW2 and it’ll have been released at the same time all around the world. Not really sure why Disney decided to have it so close to JW2 let alone I2. 

They have Christopher Robin already in August so they wanted to give that release enough space as a slow burner 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean I’ve said for weeks that one of those three films would get the short end of the stick. I always had Incredibles 2 as the sure bet with JW2 or Ant-man getting the short end. The question for me was always which film would it be. For a moment I thought it would be JW2 but now it’s looking like JW2 coming before Ant-man paid off for JW2 and Ant-man is gonna be the odd man out. But it’s too early to tell and it could get a last minute push in sales plus i imagine it’s gonna have really really good legs ala SMH since there’s nothing in front of it really. So it may not get a pretty OW but it’ll have really good legs to show for it, I’d imagine. 

 

I think Ant-man should have just gotten that first week August release to be honest. Gives it a ton of space between it and I2 plus JW2 and it’ll have been released at the same time all around the world. Not really sure why Disney decided to have it so close to JW2 let alone I2. 

Legs will be strong for sure. Even if it goes to something disappointing like $65M-$70M, I can’t see under a 3x. Agreed though it is too early we should have a better idea by at least tomorrow.

 

Disney likes to dominate the schedule even if it’s better for their films to be spread out.

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Incredibles 2

2. Jurassic World

3. Ant-Man

4. Uncle Drew

5. Sicario

[Nova]

@MovieMan89 at what point in time should we be concerned that Ant-Man isn’t in MTs top 5 🤔 If it doesn’t enter soon things could get ugly this weekend, am I right 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Nova

[raulbalarezo]

I'm ready to see meltdowns when ant-man opens below $100M

[Hades]

The Iron boy / Iron man movie opened to 117mil last year. Why should this open to 100 mil with a lot less hype...

[el sid]

The First Purge also looks a bit muted at the moment. So far not on MT (ok, that can change soon) but with only 15 sold tickets in 5 minutes a few hours ago on Pulse and now 16/5 minutes. Maybe it has no previews on Tuesday or it's a series with very hefty walk ups? I have no idea...

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

The First Purge also looks a bit muted at the moment. So far not on MT (ok, that can change soon) but with only 15 sold tickets in 5 minutes a few hours ago on Pulse and now 16/5 minutes. Maybe it has no previews on Tuesday or it's a series with very hefty walk ups? I have no idea...

 

It's a walkup based franchise.  Weak presales shouldn't be too concerning for now.

[MovieMan89]

44 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

I'm ready to see meltdowns when ant-man opens below $100M

100m has always been the optimistic hope. Unless it's below 80, nothing to be surprised over. 

[Nova]

Ant-Man has shown up on MT with 3.6%

 

JW2 32.6 

I2 29 

Sicario 8.2 

Uncle Drew 5.7 

Ant-Man 3.6 

 

-I imagine Ant-Man will overtake both Sicario and UD by the end of the day. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Nova

[TalismanRing]

58 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

100m has always been the optimistic hope. Unless it's below 80, nothing to be surprised over. 

Yeah, not sure where this narrative that Ant-Man was going to open over $100m comes from - let alone that opening under that is some cause for a meltdown.  Tracking was $25-35m less than that 2 weeks ago. 

 

$100m would be a near 75% o/w increase and no MCU sequel has come near that, not even IM3, TWS or GOTG2.  An $80-85m o/w would be in that 40-50% increase area.  Even $75m would be a 31% increase.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Yeah, not sure where this narrative that Ant-Man was going to open over $100m comes from - let alone that opening under that is some cause for a meltdown.  Tracking was $25-35m less than that 2 weeks ago. 

 

$100m would be a near 75% o/w increase and no MCU sequel has come near that, not even IM3, TWS or GOTG2.  An $80-85m o/w would be in that 40-50% increase area.  Even $75m would be a 31% increase.

The poster you quoted is the one who has been pushing the $100M OW for Ant-Man narrative lol No hard feelings towards MovieMan either or anything but he's the one thats been pushing it. Even started talking about Ant-Man over JW2 OW lol 

 

Everyone else has had it in the $75M-$90M range 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Nova

[Cooper Legion]

I think people often conflate a lot of people thinking there’s a chance of a 100M weekend with a lot of people thinking that 100M is likely/the bar for success.    

 

The former has has been apparent for months. The latter has never existed. 

[narniadis]

Yeah, there should be NO disappointment if Ant Man opens to 75m since that would be within tracking. 80m+ would be awesome but not necessary. 

[DAJK]

Not exactly buzz for upcoming movies this week or even this month, but I am already sensing a lot of buzz in real life, not just on the internet, for John Wick 3. Working at the theatre lets me hear customers talking about upcoming movies, and while yea, what else are people going to talk about when they're buying their tickets at a movie theatre since movies are on their mind. But I've definitey heard quite a few people talking about ''John Wick 3 next year''. 

 

Really think it could increase nicely from 2. Wouldn't be surprised at a low 40's opening, 120 finish, with around 100 overseas as well. 

[JB33]

An opening weekend increase like that of GotGV2 over GotG would give AMatW $88,889,305. Ant-Man isn't as popular as the Guardians so I'm going with anywhere between that and $80M.

[Boxofficerules]

When ca we expect to see Purge reviews?

[Rumpot]

Oh, I see how this works.  Let me give it a try

 

"I can't wait to see all the meltdowns when [movie = Ant-Man 2] opens less than [Number that is not unprecedented, but is very unrealistic for this movie = 200M]"

 

[End with face icon showing amusement/making fun of group that doesn't exist, but will serve to annoy others]

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-02 17:00:19 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-02 16:00:00	925	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-02 16:00:00	886	Incredibles 2
2018-07-02 16:00:00	342	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-02 16:00:00	239	Uncle Drew
2018-07-02 16:00:00	228	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-02 16:00:00	165	Oceans 8
2018-07-02 16:00:00	130	The First Purge
2018-07-02 16:00:00	122	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-07-02 16:00:00	115	Tag (2018)
2018-07-02 16:00:00	63	Sanju

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-07-02 17:00:19 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-07-02 16:00:00	925	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-07-02 16:00:00	886	Incredibles 2
2018-07-02 16:00:00	342	Sicario Day of the Soldado
2018-07-02 16:00:00	239	Uncle Drew
2018-07-02 16:00:00	228	Ant-Man and the Wasp
2018-07-02 16:00:00	165	Oceans 8
2018-07-02 16:00:00	130	The First Purge
2018-07-02 16:00:00	122	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom 3D
2018-07-02 16:00:00	115	Tag (2018)
2018-07-02 16:00:00	63	Sanju

2018-07-02 16:00:00	24	Ant-Man and the Wasp 3D
2018-07-02 16:00:00	20	Ant-Man and the Wasp The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-07-02 16:00:00	17	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-07-02 16:00:00	13	Fireworks (Premiere Event)
2018-07-02 16:00:00	12	Ant-Man and the Wasp An IMAX 3D Experience