The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

If at gun point, I have to say an optimistic number I will go with 8.25+.

very nice

[Nova]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Yes.

If at gun point, I have to say an optimistic number I will go with 8.25+.

But someone just said $8.4M and you said no and went all the way down to $7M. 

 

This was literally 20 minutes ago….and there's a pretty big difference between $7M and $8.25M for a Thursday preview. 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

How would 8.25 previews play into the four day weekend? Over 120 mil possible?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Nova said:

But someone just said $8.4M and you said no and went all the way down to $7M. 

I didn't wanted to increase the expectations and then led to meltdown.

But now that I am doing some calculations;

8mn is actually a good number to pin hopes on.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

I didn't wanted to increase the expectations and then led to meltdown.

But now that I am doing some calculations;

8mn is actually a good number to pin hopes on.

If that's the case then this could see over 100 million 3-day...

[Deja23]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

But someone just said $8.4M and you said no and went all the way down to $7M. 

 

This was literally 20 minutes ago….and there's a pretty big difference between $7M and $8.25M for a Thursday preview. 

I think he was replying to that poster that, based on previous expectations, $7m would be a better number for the preview. But if he was to be even more optimistic about it, $8.25m would be his pick. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

If AT GUN POINT I have to say an optimistic number I will go with 8.25+.

 

PS. This number is purely based on some calculations, which are expected to be reliable but can go up/down. Consider this as an educated guess.

 

[MrPink]

My summer game

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Btw on Pulse Aladdin's sales for Friday have already surpassed Pika's Friday by a good margin despite the Thursday's not being all that different, fits with Charlie's tease of very good numbers

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

How would 8.25 previews play into the four day weekend? Over 120 mil possible?

If it followed Pirates 5 multi then $118m.

 

Previews started earlier though at 6 instead of 7 - and there were some fan events at 5pm

 

OTOH early WOM seems to be stronger.

 

From that preview number it could do anything from $95-120m 4-Day

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

If it followed Pirates 5 multi then $118m.

 

Previews started earlier though at 6 instead of 7 - and there were some fan events at 5pm

 

OTOH early WOM seems to be stronger.

 

From that preview number it could do anything from $95-120m 4-Day

95M+ 4-day would secure 200M domestic so I'll take that as a huge win. 

[Eric the Marxist]

 

MODS IT'S HERE OPEN THE THREAD @grim22 @aabattery @DeeCee

[Cooper Legion]

7, per Deadline

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Seems like that was what was expected before Charlie's tease no?

 

So another win for the tracking thread! 

[WrathOfHan]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

@WrathOfHan was one of the first early pioneers on this IMO.   In fact, I switched to a seat count system largely because of his work.

 

He's been busy with College Life lately, so he hasn't posted many theater counts recently.  There's others, I'm sure.  But he was one of the OGs when it came to theater tracking and I wanted to make sure some rep got sent his way.

[Tinalera]

7 mil thursday. Interesting. Now we get to see wom and weekend walkups how they do.

 

 

[DAJK]

13 hours ago, DAJK said:

Recent comps in my area are strange. Only 120% of Dumbo, but 167% Shazam

 

So... 3.1-9.8M. I’m fairly confident in that range, y’all can quote me in the morning  

 

Damn, this must be how deadline does their math

[Porthos]

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

So comps.  The Pickachu comp is interesting coz I have to factor in lack of matinees along with PLFs.  So pure comp just doesn't work. It had 90 extra minutes of tracking, but also folks would have bought tickets earlier for Pika PIka.   A pure comp gives 7.18m.  Boosting that gives around 7.5m

 

My comps of Venom/JW2/Solo/AM&tW comp to 7.9/8.4/8.3/8.5.  That seems way too optimistic given other folks reports.  FB2 comps to 6.3m.  That's too pessimistic in the other direction, I think.

 

Normally, I'd call for about 8m in previews based on all my comps.  But I think Sacto is over-performing a bit.  So let's say 7.5m +/- .3m.  I just don't have the guts to call for 8m. Not with those other reports out there.

 

If I miss, I miss. But that's what I'm seeing right now.

 

 

 

On 5/23/2019 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

Here's what I'm willing to believe/bet on Aladdin.  I think it is performing very well in some areas of the country and very poorly in others.  We've seen this before with other movies, so it's not unheard of.

 

Is Sacramento an over-performing area?  Maybe!  I really don't know. But it doesn't seem too dissimilar with Fandango, which I'm kinda using as a tie-breaker.  But, sure, I could see us over-performing by some percentage.  And before anyone brings up the Cali angle, from what I could tell @FlashMaster659's theater in Ontario, California was doing pretty lousy as well.

 

Looking at my own data and trends, I don't think 7.25m +/- .3m is that unlikely.  If Sacto is right.    But I am overdue for a FB2 sized miss, so if I have one, I have one.  Can't really ask for anything else than that.

Should have stuck with this as my ad-hoc.

 

Oh well, still better than Deadline. I think. 

 

And, in all honesty, being ,5m off as something as wild and unpredictable as Aladdin isn't something to be too upset about. 

 

I'll take it, in other words.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Should have stuck with this as my ad-hoc.

 

Oh well, still better than Deadline. I think. 

 

And, in all honesty, being ,5m off as something as wild and unpredictable as Aladdin isn't something to be too upset about. 

 

I'll take it, in other words.

Well you did say + or - .3 so you were only off by .2 actually. Incredibly close still.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Well you did say + or - .3 so you were only off by .2 actually. Incredibly close still.

Thanks.  Much appreciated.

 

I DID have a gif prepared in case it was in the low 6s (or even high 5s! ).  

 

Just have to wait 'till I get another FB2 sized miss before y'all get to see it though.