The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 D4  - overall 6706 shows 206330/1219367 2816271.62  +48616
MTC2 D4 - overall 5475 shows 191643/862015 1860548.00  +44612

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

[JB33]

19 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

Wow....that's refreshing news.

[Inceptionzq]

41 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday

Mid 20s would be a great hold, but I think low 20s is more likely. Christmas Eve usually drops harder than that, no?

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mid 20s would be a great hold, but I think low 20s is more likely. Christmas Eve usually drops harder than that, no?

I think it'll actually drop even more than that, then jump huge on Christmas Day. I expect Christmas Eve to go under $20M.

 

What say you @Jedi Jat?

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mid 20s would be a great hold, but I think low 20s is more likely. Christmas Eve usually drops harder than that, no?

29 would be a Mon drop almost exactly mirroring Smaug from the most recent year with the same calendar. Dropped 33% on Eve Tuesday, so I would consider TROS doing well to do 20+

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

29 would be a Mon drop almost exactly mirroring Smaug from the most recent year with the same calendar. Dropped 33% on Eve Tuesday, so I would consider TROS doing well to do 20+

Behaving exactly like Anchorman 2 as well on Sunday, and if Charlie's Monday estimate ends up correct then the Monday drop would be exactly on par as well (-26.6% for Anchorman 2).

 

Thing is, Anchorman dropped a massive 51.1% on Eve Tuesday. I'm guessing a franchise fantasy film like Star Wars or Hobbit performs better on Christmas Eve than a comedy.

Edited December 23, 2019 by JB33

[Inceptionzq]

12 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I think it'll actually drop even more than that, then jump huge on Christmas Day. I expect Christmas Eve to go under $20M.

I was thinking 20-21M, but definitely could drop a little more to 19s

[babz06]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Why there is no tracking on Little Women?? is it doing very negligible business? 

im curious about Little Women sales too. anyone?

Edited December 23, 2019 by babz06

[RockyMountain]

550 domestic and WW total of over a billion would be good. Would make the movie still pretty profitable but low enough of a total to let them know that they need to do things a little differently than they did with the ST.

[Welfin]

1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

550 domestic and WW total of over a billion would be good. Would make the movie still pretty profitable but low enough of a total to let them know that they need to do things a little differently than they did with the ST.

A 300m drop from the last film (which already dropped 700 from its predecessor) is terrible. Nothing good about any of this, I must say. 

[RockyMountain]

4 minutes ago, Welfin said:

A 300m drop from the last film (which already dropped 700 from its predecessor) is terrible. Nothing good about any of this, I must say. 

It would be terrible if this was actually a real good film and people were still choosing to not show up. But it was a film with a whole lot of problems which seemed to be a result of very poor planning. A movie like that crossing a billion is all we should expect.

[charlie Jatinder]

Actuals my estimate. Let's see what Disney give.

 

Friday: $89mn

Saturday: $47.25mn

Sunday: $40mn

 

Total: $176.25mn

[charlie Jatinder]

Frozen 2: 3.35 4.9 4.7 : 12.95

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

Frozen 2: 3.35 4.9 4.7 : 12.95

 

Monday for frozen 2 ?

[a2k]

7 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Well, this is best day so far IMO. Looks like $29mn. I think it will drop in mid 20s on Tuesday and then stay above 30 till Friday. Perhaps $385mn plus by Sunday. Full run $550mn plus.

375 10-day guess

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Previews	19 Dec 19	40.0		40.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	49.0	24.0	89.0
Sat	21 Dec 19	47.5	-4.0	136.5
Sun	22 Dec 19	40.0	-16.8	176.5	176.5 ow
Mon	23 Dec 19	28.0	-30.0	204.5
Tue	24 Dec 19	19.6	-30.0	224.1
Wed	25 Dec 19	27.4	40.0	251.5
Thu	26 Dec 19	30.2	10.0	281.7	105.2 M-Th
Fri	27 Dec 19	31.7	5.0	313.4
Sat	28 Dec 19	33.3	5.0	346.7
Sun	29 Dec 19	28.3	-15.0	375.0	93.3 (-47%)

Edited December 23, 2019 by a2k

[Madhuvan]

48 minutes ago, a2k said:

375 10-day guess

Weekday	Date	Gross	% Hold	Cume
Previews	19 Dec 19	40.0		40.0
Fri	20 Dec 19	49.0	24.0	89.0
Sat	21 Dec 19	47.5	-4.0	136.5
Sun	22 Dec 19	40.0	-16.8	176.5	176.5 ow
Mon	23 Dec 19	28.0	-30.0	204.5
Tue	24 Dec 19	19.6	-30.0	224.1
Wed	25 Dec 19	27.4	40.0	251.5
Thu	26 Dec 19	30.2	10.0	281.7	105.2 M-Th
Fri	27 Dec 19	31.7	5.0	313.4
Sat	28 Dec 19	33.3	5.0	346.7
Sun	29 Dec 19	28.3	-15.0	375.0	93.3 (-47%)

Going by your estimates with a 93m second weekend. 

93*2.5= 232.5m 

375+232.5= 612.5m 

That would be very good. 

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Going by your estimates with a 93m second weekend. 

93*2.5= 232.5m 

375+232.5= 612.5m 

That would be very good. 

nearly impossible to add 2.5x this particular 2nd weekend for TROS imo

2x more for 560 would be the hopeful finish with my numbers.

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, babz06 said:

im curious about Little Women sales too. anyone?

I have been looking at the major cities on Fandango and it does appear to be selling really well. In NYC in particular it's almost sold out a handful of showtimes in some really big auditoriums.

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Actuals my estimate. Let's see what Disney give.

 

Friday: $89mn

Saturday: $47.25mn

Sunday: $40mn

 

Total: $176.25mn

embarrassing numbers for SW...Yikes...

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Monday Seat Report: T-0 days @ 11am
12/23/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	434	73,091	84,571	11,480	13.57%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	2	3	13	27

 

My numbers line up pretty well with what's been predicted already.  About 3/4 of what Sunday had sold at the same time and a little less than half of what Saturday had sold, but walk-ups should be more similar to Sunday, so high 20s works out nicely.

Edited December 23, 2019 by ZackM