The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline tracking:

 

Pets 2: $63M+ (and as high as $70M)

Godzilla: $51M

Dark Phoenix: $50M

Rocketman: $28M

Ma: $20M

Late Night: $5-6M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/dark-phoenix-secret-life-of-pets-2-opening-box-office-projections-1202616835/

KoTM is up in tracking. 

[Tentatek]

So many flops omg 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Tentatek said:

So many flops omg 

Ma will at least be profitable (big time, actually) with that $5M budget! Moral of the story: Octavia Spencer always wins.

Edited May 17, 2019 by filmlover

[Mulder]

Though in all seriousness I'm not too concerned. Look at Wick this weekend for example @It's tracking.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Mulder said:

Though in all seriousness I'm not too concerned. Look at Wick this weekend for example @It's tracking.

I agree at least couple of them would go well above initial tracking. I think Dark Phoenix is doomed. Rocketman could be a breakout if early previews and reviews are good.

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	9543	10718	10.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      98

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu.  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.2473x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 7 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-7:

Pika:      75  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/66 showings   |  6631/7573 seats left   | 12.44% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5389x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 7 days before release.

.4928x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 7 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-7 days:

JW2               122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9272/11263 seats left | 17.68% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    81 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |   8301/9374 seats left   | 11.45% sold]

FB2               123 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings   | 11165/13377 seats left |  16.54% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    85 tickets sold [0 sellouts/74 showings   |   8722/9812 seats left   |  11.11% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Porthos]

King of the Monsters Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	11010	11616	5.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     46

 

IMO, the best comp of movies I have tracked will be Fallen Kingdom.  I also have comps with the Aladdin (still in pre-sales) and Detective Pikachu as something as a compare/contrast with current May movies.  They may not be as good comps, being in different genres.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.1767x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 14 days before release. 

0.8112x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 14 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales and Aladdin had 24 while King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales]

 

T-14:

Pika        18  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |  8133/8648 seats left   |  5.96% sold]

Aladdin   21 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/70 showings   |  9250/9997 seats left   |  7.47% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4112x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 14 days before release.       

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while KotM had 20.  Also some theaters had KotM tickets on sale for a few days before they were officially announced to the public for sale. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-14:

JW2               59 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8705/10113 seats left   |  13.92% sold]

KotM (JW)      44 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |   9979/10558 seats left   |    5.48% sold]

KotM (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

NOTE:::  Starting tomorrow all comps will be "X days from release" based instead of "after x days of pre-sales" based.

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-46 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	2112	2348	10.05%

 

Total Showings Added Since Sun:         1

Total Seats Added Since Sun:           113

Total Seats Sold Since Sun:                 15

 

No comps at the moment.  If I think of any good ones, I'll pop them in here.

 

Next update: Sun 5/19

[Hokkaido MUTO]

31 minutes ago, Mulder said:

KoTM is up in tracking. 

Wasn't it in the 55 range? So it went down right?

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

Wasn't it in the 55 range? So it went down right?

No it was in the 50 range from the trades, 54 from BOP. I'm just making a joke. Tracking like this isn't too worrisome.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No it was in the 50 range from the trades, 54 from BOP. I'm just making a joke. Tracking like this isn't too worrisome.

Yeah, I understood the joke, but I just didn't know if the numbers literally went down instead. Man, tracking this movies' BO will be a roller-coaster of emotions lol.

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-63 (+1), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Despite being slow in all seriousness, a pure midnight selling this well this early is honestly impressive tbh.

 

Refresh my memory, BOT: is FFH the first actual midnight since 2012?

 

Seems like there's just nothing to compare it to. Can't compare it to other recent Marvel movies with a 7pm start time, can't compare it to other midnight movie from 7 years ago since pre-sales are a totally different thing these days.

 

Even when we get an actual midnight number on Tuesday morning, we still won't have any idea what sort of midnight:OD multiplier it might have.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

Refresh my memory, BOT: is FFH the first actual midnight since 2012?

 

Seems like there's just nothing to compare it to. Can't compare it to other recent Marvel movies with a 7pm start time, can't compare it to other midnight movie from 7 years ago since pre-sales are a totally different thing these days.

 

Even when we get an actual midnight number on Tuesday morning, we still won't have any idea what sort of midnight:OD multiplier it might have.

At best we can compare it to Limited Engagements/Sneaks, I think.  And even then it could be much bigger than them if the number of showtimes in Sacramento is any guide.

 

Could also try to compare it to Early Access.  But, again, if Sacramento is any guide, it could be much less since there are far fewer amount of showtimes.  

 

Probably just be its own thing.  Kinda fascinating flying blind, really.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

At best we can compare it to Limited Engagements/Sneaks, I think.  And even then it could be much bigger than them if the number of showtimes in Sacramento is any guide.

 

Could also try to compare it to Early Access.  But, again, if Sacramento is any guide, it could be much less since there are far fewer amount of showtimes.  

 

Probably just be its own thing.  Kinda fascinating flying blind, really.

This being said, I have to admit I'm a little disappointed in Sacramento when it comes to sales.

 

Being Old School, I was kinda hoping for more Midnight Madness when it came to sales.

 

I think the last few years of 7pm and earlier previews has made a bunch of people soft when it comes to midnights.     

 

                    SOOOOOOOOOOFT I say.

 

==

 

It'll probably pick up much closer to release when it comes to seats sold.  At least I hope so, said Mr Old School.

[grim22]

8 hours ago, kitik said:

 

Refresh my memory, BOT: is FFH the first actual midnight since 2012?

 

Seems like there's just nothing to compare it to. Can't compare it to other recent Marvel movies with a 7pm start time, can't compare it to other midnight movie from 7 years ago since pre-sales are a totally different thing these days.

 

Even when we get an actual midnight number on Tuesday morning, we still won't have any idea what sort of midnight:OD multiplier it might have.

Man of Steel had midnights and the Walmart thing at 7pm which was reported separately. I think that was the last movie which reported midnights

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

Final Unofficial Comp Check. Don't blame 'the system' if it's off.

 

(ALL OF THESE FILMS HAD 3D SO ADJUST DOWNWARDS)

 

Wick 3          3223 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+1148 for the day) (+292 since 4pm)

----

Wick 3 (adj)  2782 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+976 for the day)

JW:FK            6228 tickets sold at stop of tracking (+2036 for the day) 

Solo:             5789 tickets sold at stop of tracking    (+911 for the day)

 

A JW:FK comp     gives 6.83m

A Solo  comp      gives 6.78m

A Venom comp* gives 6.53m

* Math not given due to different adj

 

There HAS to be an adj for 3D, however.  So let's say 5.75m to 6.25m.  

 

That's an ad-hoc adj though, as I didn't run any 3D comps to see how many tickets are affected by that.  Might be overcompensating here, though.  

 

On the other hand, kinda worried I might be over-estimating it.  But that number from @captainwondyful makes me think, perhaps not. 

 

Be interested to see what it is when all is said and done.

Somebody stop this man!!!!

 

 

[cdsacken]

Porthos nailed it again. Jeez on a roll man.

[FlashMaster659]

22 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Somebody stop this man!!!!

 

 

He's becoming Asguardian at this point.

[filmlover]

Booksmart has sold almost 30 seats in one of the smallest (50 seats) auditorium for tonight here and is doing similar everywhere else. Fingers crossed good WOM from those screenings spreads cause I'm getting the feeling it's gonna flop next week (as will Brightburn but that's expected considering how lame it supposedly is).

[Tinalera]

Well done Porthos! Perhaps Porthos has one of of those seeing stones from LOTR😉