The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

@Porthos, forgive me if this has been asked already or if you've already laid out your thoughts, but what are your thoughts on a 9-10x multi for JW3 based on that early $7M preview number? I know you have said that internal multis aren't your thing, but what's your best gut feeling?

[cax16]

Late shows for jw3 are basically the same numbers as the early shows for the two theatres I tracked so the 7m does seem right, very strong sales. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

@Porthos, forgive me if this has been asked already or if you've already laid out your thoughts, but what are your thoughts on a 9-10x multi for JW3 based on that early $7M preview number? I know you have said that internal multis aren't your thing, but what's your best gut feeling?

Let's cool our jets here for a second.  Kinda want to get clairification for @Charlie Jatinder on that.

 

---

 

Aside from that what I said earlier stands:

 

41 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I actually think the relative penetration into 9pm and 10pm shows is a good sign that there is a large pool of folks interested in the movie. 

Either way, TalismanRing ran a bunch of comps a couple of days ago showing that the likely range was from 9.3x to 11.2x or so. 

 

Now the higher it goes, the lower the multi probably is.  Especially if it's fans rushing out.  Logan (9.3x) might be an interesting  comp all things considered.  

 

With that in mind, if this hits 6m (still a huge if), with the reception it's getting, I kinda think 50m is the floor.  I suck at weekend multis though, so don't take that as gospel.

If it is 7m, then a lower multi is probably in play simply due to rush factor.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So is this comment based on the info here/Fandango or is it a more of an Agardian statement...

Here. I don't have source for previews.

[Porthos]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Here. I don't have source for previews.

Thanks, that's what I thought.  Just wanted to get clarification before folks got too happy in here.

[Jonwo]

If John Wick does $70m OW, that's a huge jump, Lionsgate would be greenlighting John Wick 4 in a heartbeat.

[Biggestgeekever]

Well now it has to hit $7M to not be a BOMB. 

[McClintonforThree]

 

 

1

On 5/15/2019 at 6:32 PM, McClintonforThree said:

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

John Wick - 262 (+25), 6 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 Regular)

Aladdin - 110 (-173), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 1 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

Godzilla KOTM - 86 (0), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 75 (+33), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

Aladdin's sold out showing ended up being a glitch resulting in the sharp decline in tickets from last week. Also, I missed the fan event showings for Dark Phoenix and Alladin last week resulting in its noticeable uptick. Also, the Regency added 6 more screenings for John Wick.

Regency AMC

John Wick - 392 (+37), 17 screenings (2 Dolby, 15 Regular)

Aladdin - 161 (+10), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 113 (+1), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 87 (+46), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

Only Thursdays

Orange Park AMC

Aladdin - 118 (+8), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 1 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

Godzilla KOTM - 92 (+6), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 1 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 81 (+6), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

 

The fan screenings are really powering Dark Phoenix right now.

Regency AMC

Aladdin - 182 (+21), 8 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular)

Godzilla KOTM - 121 (+8), 10 screenings (3 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 3 Regular)

Dark Phoenix - 100 (+13), 8 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 Dolby, 2 3D, 2 Regular, 1 Fan Event)

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Thanks, that's what I thought.  Just wanted to get clarification before folks got too happy in here.

Fair enough. Probably a good idea.

[DAJK]

I'm just heading out the door so don't have time for full comps unfortunately tonight but based on the sales I'm looking at I would say 6M is the absolute FLOOR. Late shows are also pretty busy so far, but 7M doesn't seem like (too) much of a stretch

 

thank you @Charlie Jatinder for your updates again No matter how much we look at our own respective theatres, it is nice always being humbled by the power of the gods

Edited May 17, 2019 by DAJK

[Tinalera]

So these upticks in dark phoenix: wonder where interest is brewing? Fans knowledgable about fox/disney and "end" of current xmen gen? 

 

Casual fans inspired by marketing?

Some other factor?

 

Its interesting how there seems some interest surge. Just wondering where it might be coming from.

[Legion Again]

Anything from 6.851 to 6.949 or so will round to the nice result.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So these upticks in dark phoenix: wonder where interest is brewing? Fans knowledgable about fox/disney and "end" of current xmen gen? 

 

Casual fans inspired by marketing?

Some other factor?

 

Its interesting how there seems some interest surge. Just wondering where it might be coming from.

I think it's because, contrary to what many people are saying on the internet, the movie actually looks....good. That's my opinion anyway.

[McClintonforThree]

1 hour ago, Tinalera said:

So these upticks in dark phoenix: wonder where interest is brewing? Fans knowledgable about fox/disney and "end" of current xmen gen? 

 

Casual fans inspired by marketing?

Some other factor?

 

Its interesting how there seems some interest surge. Just wondering where it might be coming from.

I think "X-Men Day" got a lot of people to buy tickets. Pretty much every star who has ever been in an X-Men film tweeted about it creating some interest. And also it was announced all of the X-Men comics are being soft-rebooted to become a more prominent part of Marvel which might have created some excitement. Pretty much everyone I know that's talked about has said it looks terrible so idk.

[Mulder]

8 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-101 (+1), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-91 (-1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-55 (-2), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Not a good start for Aladdin's final week honestly. It has to pass 100 tickets today imo for me to even consider revising my prediction of it's OW because this is just really bad for it.

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-114 (+14), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-97 (+6), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-55, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Incredible day for Godzilla today. Really good sign that it's this far ahead 2 weeks out. Not so good for Aladdin though. While it's good it finally sold tickets again, it still hasn't crossed 100 tickets sold when at this point John Wick had passed 100 tickets and I'm fairly sure Detective Pikachu had as well. Phoenix is in a dryspell as well but that's more understandable. In total today Godzilla sold 14 tickets, Aladdin sold 6, and Dark Phoenix didn't sell any.

[Mulder]

23 hours ago, Mulder said:

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-62 (+4), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Oh gosh damn it, it increased by a decent amount today which is great for FFH and my fangirl love for Spider-Man...not great for the tracker Fae (aka me). 

FFH midnight showings-

FFH-63 (+1), 3 screenings (1 IMAX, 1 3D, 1 Regular)

 

Despite being slow in all seriousness, a pure midnight selling this well this early is honestly impressive tbh.

[filmlover]

Deadline tracking:

 

Pets 2: $63M+ (and as high as $70M)

Godzilla: $51M

Dark Phoenix: $50M

Rocketman: $28M

Ma: $20M

Late Night: $5-6M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/dark-phoenix-secret-life-of-pets-2-opening-box-office-projections-1202616835/

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline tracking:

 

Pets 2: $63M+ (and as high as $70M)

Godzilla: $51M

Dark Phoenix: $50M

Rocketman: $28M

Ma: $20M

Late Night: $5-6M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/dark-phoenix-secret-life-of-pets-2-opening-box-office-projections-1202616835/

Top 3 numbers are really bad, considering how big the predecessors were. Hope it goes up from this or it would be ugly.

[McClintonforThree]

53 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-114 (+14), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-97 (+6), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final Week

Dark Phoenix-55, 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Incredible day for Godzilla today. Really good sign that it's this far ahead 2 weeks out. Not so good for Aladdin though. While it's good it finally sold tickets again, it still hasn't crossed 100 tickets sold when at this point John Wick had passed 100 tickets and I'm fairly sure Detective Pikachu had as well. Phoenix is in a dryspell as well but that's more understandable. In total today Godzilla sold 14 tickets, Aladdin sold 6, and Dark Phoenix didn't sell any.

That's what I like to hear.

[stealthyfrog]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline tracking:

 

Pets 2: $63M+ (and as high as $70M)

Godzilla: $51M

Dark Phoenix: $50M

Rocketman: $28M

Ma: $20M

Late Night: $5-6M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/05/dark-phoenix-secret-life-of-pets-2-opening-box-office-projections-1202616835/

>$70M would be a steep drop from the original SLoP's opening. Doesn't seem like many people cared enough about the original to show up for the sequel. Good thing Illumination is so good at keeping its budget low. I suspect Minions 2 and Sing 2 will see similar drops from their predecessors. Illumination might not have another big win until potentially the Mario movie in 2022.