The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[JB33]

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw

Wednesday July 31, 2019 | 11:20PM

1 day to Thursday previews

 

Cineplex Odeon Sunridge Spectrum - Calgary, AB

Thursday, August 1

 

UltraAVX

7:30PM - 52/210 seats sold (25%)

10:40PM - 12/210 seats sold (6%)

 

Regular

7:00PM - 30/112 seats sold (27%)

10:10PM - 14/112 seats sold (9%)

 

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary, AB

Thursday, August 1

 

UltraAVX

7:30PM - 40/407 seats sold (10%)

10:40PM - 12/407 seats sold (3%)

 

Regular

7:00PM - 57/331 seats sold (21%) | D-BOX seats - 9/30 seats sold (30%) *D-BOX seat count is part of the overall count

10:10PM - 5/331 seats sold (2%) | D-BOX seats - 1/30 seats sold (3%) *D-BOX seat count is part of the overall count

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

In a word: yikes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[a2k]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	56	857	9,326	9.19%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 226

Total Seats Sold Today: 230

 

Comps

0.15x of The Lion King 1 day before release (3.5M)

 

Adjusted Comps

0.81x of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 1 day before release (4.7M)

7.18x of Crawl 1 day before release (7.2M)

8.22x of Stuber 1 day before release (6.2M)

 

Well, it...could be worse? It's still not indicating great results here, but maybe tomorrow's results will really turn things around...maybe.

if it does between Stuber and Crawl then 9x the previews gives 55-65 ow

fear that OUTAH and TLK could be more accurate comps but yukes who wants to think about 4-5m previews at this stage.

 

[Porthos]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	126	12408	13916	1508	10.84%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       10 

Total Seats Added Today:          1132

Total Seats Sold Today:               468

 

Apparently I don't have ANY good comps for this film given its sale pattern.  Might throw in some others at the last moment, or I might change them entirely after thinking about it some more. But here are four recent comps.  DON'T TAKE MUCH (if anything) FROM THESE:

 

Comps (probably lol - use at own risk)

0.6681x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 1 day before release.       [3.81m]

0.7267x as many tickets sold as John Wick 3 1 day before release.                [4.14m]

0.6018x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 1 day before release.                      [4.21m]

0.7586x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 1 day before release.  [4.78m]

0.1876x as many tickets sold as The Lion King 1 day before release.             [4.32m]

 

T-1:

Pika       472 seats sold [0 sellouts/112 shows |  8001/10258 seats  | 2257 seats sold |  22.00% sold]

Wick 3   457 seats sold [0 sellouts/76 shows   |  8066/10141 seats  | 2075 seats sold |  20.46% sold]

Aladdin  580 seats sold [0 sellouts/117 shows | 11420/13926 seats | 2506 seats sold |  18.00% sold]

KotM     351 seats sold [0 sellouts/125 shows | 13495/15483 seats | 1988 seats sold |  12.84% sold]

TLK     1208 seats sold  [1 sellout/287 shows | 19742/27780 seats  | 8038 seats sold |  28.93% sold]

 

Adjusted Comp (also probably lol - use at own risk)

0.3385x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom1 day before release.  [5.18m]

 

T-1:

JW2         768 seats sold [0 sellouts/147 shows |   9523/13715 seats | 4192 seats sold |  30.57% sold]

H&S(adj)  443 seats sold [0 sellouts/126 shows | 10824/12243 seats | 1419 seats sold |  11.59% sold]

  

Edited August 1, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Strong day in Sacramento.  Tomato Law wins again?

 

===

 

Feeling better about at least 5m as H&S will keep gaining on other comps.  Over 5m?  Just have to see if it has enough strength to continue to claw out of the hole it created for itself with its slow start.

[keysersoze123]

^^^^^

 

That is not bad for T-1. I also looked at AMC Metroen in SF and its doing well(Dolby almost sold out and early 2d showings are doing well). Arclight hollywood wont be in Top 20 for this unlike Once upon which is keeping 70mm/35mm screens and still doing great. AMC Universal in Hollywood is doing good. But overall numbers are still weak.

 

That said this should do great with walk ins and should play well outside metro. So final number should surprise on the upside after mediocre PS. Also with previews starting at 7PM I feel previews to OW multi should be better than Once Upon.

[Porthos]

I like to keep track of this sort of thing since it's somewhat rare.

 

So far for It Chapter 2

1st day of unofficial sales:  16 tickets sold

2nd day of unofficial sales: 27 tickets sold

Total: 43 tickets sold

(not counting the day that had a partial few hours when showings first started to show up)

 

Not a patch on KotM which did 49 and 57 its first two days of unofficial sales for a total of 106 tickets.  For further comparison, FB2 sold 71 tickets in its first two days of unofficial sales.

 

Now the contrasts only go so far, as I said the last time this happened.  Different theaters have schedules already up and who knows what the awareness is out there.  More a historical curiosity than anything else.

 

(we'll consider the DOOOOOOOMED and CRUMBLING and FLOP INCOMING as read, shall we?)

Edited August 1, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

we'll consider the DOOOOOOOMED and CRUMBLING and FLOP INCOMING as read, shall we?)

This is not very considerate to your karma remoras 

[Porthos]

33 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

This is not very considerate to your karma remoras 

As @captainwondyful might say:

 

[Cap]

Lincoln Square 13
August 1, 2019
Movie	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total	%	Sold	Showings
Hobbs & Shaw	335	362	401	1454	27.56%	39	5

 

Comps (Same Day)

 

Comp	Sold	%	Est
JW3	577	69.49%	4.1M
RM	364	110.16%	1.92M
MIB3	558	71.86%	2.22M

 

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic
August 1, 2019
Movie	7/29	7/30	7/31	Total	%	Sold	Showings
Hobbs & Shaw	11	13	30	1423	2.10%	17	9

 

 

Comps (Same Day)

 

Comp	Sold	%	Est
RM	14	214.28%	3.75M
MIB3	20	150.00%	4.65M

 

 

The Comps have jumped. I am cautiously pleased.  Tomorrow will be the true test.  

[RealLyre]

those numbers are still depressing. hoping it somehow manages a 65M OW, 150M+ DOM total. if H&S goes under 150M then it'll be close to being a domestic underperformer. 

[Minnale101]

Hoping the decent reviews pushes thevwalk ups 

[a2k]

If it jumps on Thu too then I feel will see the trend continue over the weekend. For whatever reason the presales and tracking here are unusually weak for the movie of this scale and derivation. Optimistic about 9-9.5x multiplier.

 

edit:

24 (6+18)

18 (-25%)

15 (-17%)

= 57 (9.5x)

Edited August 1, 2019 by a2k

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

WEEKLY UPDATE (Didn't update last week so this is tickets sold since 2 weeks ago)

 

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 83/343 (+62)

10:10pm - 18/343 (+16)

Regular 3D

7:30pm - 34/390 (+33)

10:40pm - 6/390 (+4)

 

So...not looking great. Do some comps with the final report tonight. Hopefully the walkups are good since the reviews say its a crowdpleaser. 

[XXR & Friends]

I hadn’t been paying attention to H&S but it received a nice little bump in screen count at my theater. Will do a final number tonight around 5pm, but it looks like it should be over 300 by then (TS4 822 @ 330pm) 

 

[RamblinRed]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I hadn’t been paying attention to H&S but it received a nice little bump in screen count at my theater. Will do a final number tonight around 5pm, but it looks like it should be over 300 by then (TS4 822 @ 330pm) 

 

That would still be a pretty low number. A little over a third of TS4 would be in the 4-5M preview range. 

 

[a2k]

2 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

WEEKLY UPDATE (Didn't update last week so this is tickets sold since 2 weeks ago)

 

CINEPLEX SCOTIABANK MONTREAL

 

FAST & FURIOUS PRESENTS: HOBBS & SHAW - THURSDAY AUG 1 2019

 

IMAX

7:00pm - 83/343 (+62)

10:10pm - 18/343 (+16)

Regular 3D

7:30pm - 34/390 (+33)

10:40pm - 6/390 (+4)

 

So...not looking great. Do some comps with the final report tonight. Hopefully the walkups are good since the reviews say its a crowdpleaser. 

[Cap]

And let’s go to live coverage of the Tracking Thread:

 

[TalismanRing]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

Adjusted Comp (also probably lol - use at own risk)

 

0.3385x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom1 day before release.  [5.18m]

 

T-1:

JW2         768 seats sold [0 sellouts/147 shows |   9523/13715 seats | 4192 seats sold |  30.57% sold]

H&S(adj)  443 seats sold [0 sellouts/126 shows | 10824/12243 seats | 1419 seats sold |  11.59% sold]

  

Trying to use some old Pulse numbers to get some kind of ratio

 

MI6               *3328    13,575    27,261              $6m/$61.236m
Rampage     705         1,508      4,109               $2.4M/ $35.75m
Skyscraper    586        1,019      2,868    7,134   $1.95m/$24.5m
John Wick    7,867     10,932    18,211               $5.9m/ $56m
JW: FK          9,310     12,761    23,266              $15.3m/ $148m

 

 

Rampage:   Previews  = 584x Wed   /  OW = 8700 x Wed  (April)

Skyscraper:  Previews  = 680 x Wed /  OW = 8542 x Wed (Mid July)

JW:FK:   Previews  = 658x Wed  /  OW = 6361 x Wed  (Late June)

John Wick:  Previews= 324x Wed / OW = 3075 x Wed  (Mid May)

MI6 : Previews = 220x Wed  / OW = 2246 x Wed (Late July) 

 

JW:FK looks to be the closest comp in Fandango Pulse Wed to Preview ratio for the last 2 Rock films.  Skyscraper is the closer release date

Hobbs & Shaw though isn't an original property though so should be less walk up heavy than Rampage & Skyscraper. 

 

We also learned later about the Pulse cap which may have suppressed  JW:FK numbers b/c it came out right after I2 so yeah.... 

 

Anyhow, if it's doing .3385x of JW:FK  overall (and not just Sacramento) around $4.5-5m in previews if it's a bit more front loaded , as it should be, that the two recent Rock pics.    As of yesterday.

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

@Porthos @CoolEric258 @captainwondyful and the rest of the tracking gang, do your thing

[keysersoze123]

I will do initial stab at AMC Empire 25 data tonight(and hopefully weekly until release week). It has started with 25 2D shows and 6 Imax/PLF(Empire 25 has Imax, Dolby and AMC Prime screens). Shows are starting at 7PM. its lineup is like any uber blockbusters seen so far. Quick glance shows good amount of Dolby tickets are getting sold.

 

@captainwondyful I am assuming you will track Lincoln Sq.

 

Edit: I will ignore all incorrect marked sellouts. its too early and random. But dolby shows in multiple plexes have started really strong.

Edited August 1, 2019 by keysersoze123