The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dudalb]

5 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Even if some theaters were to remain open very few people would go. Sad times for box office watchers

Worse time for the studios.

SOme of them might well experience cash flow problems.

[dudalb]

LA just closed all theaters.

[filmlover]

I expect all theaters will be closed by Tuesday. Box office at a complete stop. There's always a first for everything.

[lorddemaxus]

Seems like @Eric Lightfoot's prediction is looking more likely. It's optimistic to see the coronavirus pandemic end by the start of July at this point so major releases like Minions 2, Tenet, Jungle Cruise, and Morbius will likely get delayed along with the May and June releases. And even movies with long production schedules like Matrix 4 and The Batman will get delayed because a 3 month delay messes the production schedule quite a bit.

 

I think Tenet could get an IMAX slot in mid-August (move Malignant) because IMAX obeys Nolan (his movies are an advertisement for their tech) but other than that, I think that 2020/2021/2022 schedule is looking about right.

[Eric Duncan]

13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Seems like @Eric Lightfoot's prediction is looking more likely. It's optimistic to see the coronavirus pandemic end by the start of July at this point so major releases like Minions 2, Tenet, Jungle Cruise, and Morbius will likely get delayed along with the May and June releases. And even movies with long production schedules like Matrix 4 and The Batman will get delayed because a 3 month delay messes the production schedule quite a bit.

 

I think Tenet could get an IMAX slot in mid-August (move Malignant) because IMAX obeys Nolan (his movies are an advertisement for their tech) but other than that, I think that 2020/2021/2022 schedule is looking about right.

Kind of the bigger issue here is that even if theaters reopen in July or August, there's going to be a fair amount of people who will likely still stay home to avoid potentially getting the virus again (yes I know there are some idiots in America who are still traveling and going to concerts, but they'll wise up...I hope). I don't think studios will want to put out potential big moneymakers like Tenet that early when there's a risk people will avoid cinemas.

 

Stuff like Quiet Place, Mulan, and Trolls are exceptions, since those movies have already used up their marketing budget, and their studios probably want to get them over with, spend as little as possible, and hope people will still be excited enough to make decent money.

 

There's also likely going to be a huge hole in WB's summer with The Batman's production delays, and while marketing is out there, it's really only been one trailer so far that the marketing budget hasn't been blown that much. Besides, No Time to Die and Wonder Woman are available to push the IMAX tech

[Liiviig 1998]

18 hours ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

@TMP It took a lot longer than I thought, but here's my post-Roni schedule (don't think I missed anything). It was pretty hard to really find a good opening for each movie. I do not envy the scheduling department. I also didn't really have a good idea on where to put the non-Disney studios' untitled movies that are in production. They're a lot harder to pin down.

 

2020

July 3: Trolls World Tour

July 10: A Quiet Place Part II

July 24: Artemis Fowl

 

August 7: Woman in the Window, Peter Rabbit 2

August 14: Mulan, Malignant, The Lovebirds

August 28: The Empty Man

 

September 11: Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It

September 18: New Mutants, Without Remorse

September 25: One and Only Ivan, Saints of Newark

 

October 2: Morbius

October 9: Scoob!

October 16: The King's Man, Candyman

 

November 6: Black Widow, Minions 2

November 13: Deep Water

November 20: In the Heights

November 25: Soul, King Richard

 

December 11: Jungle Cruise

December 18: West Side Story, Wonder Woman 1984, Sponge Out of Water

December 23: The Witches, The King of Staten Island

December 25: The Death on the Nile, The Tomorrow War

 

Chicago 7, Those Who Wish Me Dead, David Copperfield, and Everybody's Talking About Jamie debut in limited first. Bob's Burgers is a Hulu Original Movie

 

2021

January 8: Fatherhood

January 15: Enola Holmes, 355, Venom 2

January 22: Mortal Kombat

January 29: Clouds, Clifford the Big Red Dog

 

February 12: The Eternals

February 19: Tom and Jerry, Coming 2 America

 

March 5: Dune, Jackass 4

March 12: Raya and the Last Dragon

March 19: Snake Eyes

March 26: The Croods 2, Paranormal Activity 7

 

April 2: F9

April 9: Free Guy

April 16: Reminisce

 

May 7: Shang-Chi

May 14: Vivo

May 21: Godzilla vs. Kong

May 28: Cruella

 

June 4: Tenet

June 11: Space Jam 2

June 18: Pixar

 

July 2: Spider-Man 3, Boss Baby 2

July 16: Top Gun 2

Doctor Strange 2: July 30

 

August 6: The Suicide Squad

August 13: Fear Street Part 1

 

September 10: Fear Street Part 2

September 17: Mortal Kombat, The Bad Guys

September 24: Elvis, Hotel Transylvania 4

 

October 1: The Batman

October 15: Hamilton, Halloween Kills

October 22: Fear Street Part 3

 

November: Thor 4

November 19: Matrix 4

November 24: WDAS

 

December 17: Avatar 2

December 22: Black Adam, Sing 2

December 25: Mission: Impossible 7

 

2022

January 14: Sesame Street

February 18: Ant-Man 3

March 4: Pixar

March 25: The Little Mermaid

 

April 1: Minecraft

April 8: Into the Spider-Verse 2

 

May 6: Black Panther 2

May 20: DC Super Pets, John Wick 4

May 27: Pinocchio

 

June 10: Jurassic World: Dominion

June 17: Pixar

 

July 1: Shazam! 2

July 8: Shrunk

July 29: Captain Marvel 2

 

August 12: Peter Pan & Wendy

 

October 7: Guardians 3

October 14: Halloween Ends

 

November 4: Aladdin 2

November 18: The Flash

November 23: WDAS

 

December 16: Aquaman 2

December 23: National Treasure 3

 

Anybody else want to make their own post-Roni mock schedule, please feel free to do so. We've got nothing else to do in this thread

2020:

 

Jul 10- minions 2

Jul 17 - Black widow.

Jul 24-quiet place 2

Aug 7- Peter rabbit , new mutants

Aug 14- mulan

Aug 28 - morbius

Sept 18- Kingsman

Sept 25- scoob! ,Saints of Newark.

Oct 2  - venom 2

Oct 16- Candyman, 

Oct 23- woman in the window,Trolls world tour .

Nov 6 - ETERNALS.

Nov 20-king richard,soul

Nov 25- Bond,

Dec 11- jungle cruise

Dec 18 - WW1984,  westside,

Dec 25 - spongebob movie,witches

Artemis fowl- Disney +

 

2021:

Jan 1  - sesame Street.

Jan 15 - Ghostbusters afterlife.

Jan 22. - enola Holmes,355

Feb 12 - shangchi

Feb 26 - Clifford the big red dog.

March 5 - dune

March 12-raya

March 19- in the heights

April 2 - F9

April 16 - uncharted ,Tom jerry

May 7-  doctor strange and the multiverse of madness

May 14 - vivo

May 21 -  GvK

May  28- cruella

June 4- top gun Maverick

June 11- free guy

June 18- Pixar

July 2 - Spiderman 3

July 16 - tenet

July 30- mission impossible 7

Aug 20- Suicide squad 2

Oct 1- Batman

Nov 2 - Thor 4

Nov 19- fantastic beasts 3

Dec 17- avatar 2

Dec 25- black Adam, H.Translyvania 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021

 

 

[dudalb]

At this point,I think ANY predictions are  useless.

 

 

[Legion Again]

Okay guys, I’ve cracked it.
 

Take every movie scheduled from April 10 2020 through 2028.

 

F9 them.

 

Voila, no new schedule collisions are produced and all production delays are accounted for.

[keysersoze123]

I agree predicting schedule is a waste of time. We dont know when things will be back to any kind of normal. I feel next 8-12 weeks are gone without any release. Then we will start with few smaller releases or movies that can be dumped to see if there are no resurgence. Then we will see blockbusters that will see lots of sellouts and full theaters. I think it will take October for 1st blockbusters to release. 

 

Post that schedule will depend on how studios have imax contracts in place. May be Mulan/AQP2 will release 1st considering marketing $ have been spent and so they will re-release with limited marketing? Not sure if that will work. 

 

As I said earlier I would put a small wager on Bad boys winning the year. 

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree predicting schedule is a waste of time. We dont know when things will be back to any kind of normal. I feel next 8-12 weeks are gone without any release. Then we will start with few smaller releases or movies that can be dumped to see if there are no resurgence. Then we will see blockbusters that will see lots of sellouts and full theaters. I think it will take October for 1st blockbusters to release. 

 

Post that schedule will depend on how studios have imax contracts in place. May be Mulan/AQP2 will release 1st considering marketing $ have been spent and so they will re-release with limited marketing? Not sure if that will work. 

 

As I said earlier I would put a small wager on Bad boys winning the year. 

And a recession seems to be a question of not if but how bad. Studios will be taking a closer look at their announded projects as their income suffers.

[Porthos]

Looks like Kathleen Kennedy knew what she was doing last year when she put all SW films on pause until 2022. 

 

...

 

What I'm wondering is... How did she know all of this was coming? 

[doublejack]

39 minutes ago, dudalb said:

And a recession seems to be a question of not if but how bad. Studios will be taking a closer look at their announded projects as their income suffers.

It may be worse than a recession, even. We could be facing a depression.

 

The US stock market fell more today (13%) than it did on the infamous "Black Thursday" kicking off the Great Depression (11%). For another correlation, look at the wage growth gap between the top 1% in the US and the other 99% over the past decade. Look at the overall growth of the top 1%'s net worth over the past decade. Look at the tax rate on the top 1% and corporations, and the trend on those. Then check those numbers against the Roaring 20's. I don't want to get all political, but the underlying economic data is all there. The middle class is broke and burdened by debt, while the wealthy haven't had it this good in almost a century.

 

So, best case scenario is a recession like what happened during the Spanish Flu outbreak during 1918-1919. Then there are worse projections...

[stealthyfrog]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Looks like Kathleen Kennedy knew what she was doing last year when she put all SW films on pause until 2022. 

 

...

 

What I'm wondering is... How did she know all of this was coming? 

Ha

 

Fr though I'm sure she and Bob Iger had discussions about the potential impact of coronavirus

 

Iger clearly decided to retire early to leave the new Bob to deal with the mess

Edited March 16, 2020 by stealthyfrog

[dudalb]

Regal Theaters just announced it is closing all it's theaters immediately.

Common sense, they are going to be losing money and they might as well cut expenses and save on operating expenses.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Looks like Kathleen Kennedy knew what she was doing last year when she put all SW films on pause until 2022. 

 

...

 

What I'm wondering is... How did she know all of this was coming? 

Don't even say this   The "go woke go broke" crowd are all of a sudden going to be making videos of how "KK and the SJWs intentionally created and released the coronavirus to steal an election"

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Looks like Kathleen Kennedy knew what she was doing last year when she put all SW films on pause until 2022. 

 

...

 

What I'm wondering is... How did she know all of this was coming? 

And why did Iger stack 2019 with so many huge blockbusters (instead of moving some to 2020) then retire?

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

And why did Iger stack 2019 with so many huge blockbusters (instead of moving some to 2020) then retire?

 

Knowledge of the Force combined with the power of the Infinity Gauntlet proved to be a most powerful combination indeed. 

[dudalb]

All theaters just closed in California by the Governor.

[filmlover]

With Disney now pulling Black Widow and all theaters sure to be shut down by the end of the week I think it's safe to say the amount of time it'll be until they reopen will be closer to 12 weeks than to 6 (which is the timeline AMC has set for themselves). Only thing left in April is Antebellum but Lionsgate is sure to pull that (along with May titles Run and Spiral) at any moment now.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

With Disney now pulling Black Widow and all theaters sure to be shut down by the end of the week I think it's safe to say the amount of time it'll be until they reopen will be closer to 12 weeks than to 6 (which is the timeline AMC has set for themselves). Only thing left in April is Antebellum but Lionsgate is sure to pull that (along with May titles Run and Spiral) at any moment now.

Even 12 weeks is pretty optmistic imo. It's gonna be more like double that.