New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Porthos]

Now I'm REALLY loathe to bring up the holy TFA.  Mostly because mentioning TFA here in any way shape or form is borderline* stupid.

 

* Okay, not borderline.

 

But I'm not afraid to look a little stupid to make a point:

 

TFA 3rd Weekend drops:

Fri-Fri: 30.3% drop

Sat-Sat: 39.4% drop

Sun-Sun: 50.2% drop

 

Now, I know. TFA had burned off 650 fucking million dollars by that point.  That's why I didn't want to draw the analogy in the first place.  Plus this Sunday was the first 'real' Sunday on TFA's run as no one had the next day off (while tomorrow is a holiday for TLJ's run)

 

Still...

 

Anywho, what about Rogue One?  That's a little more interesting given New Year's Day and Christmas Day.   But lets bring it up as well:

 

R1 3rd Weekend drops:

Fri-Fri: 20.3% drop

Sat-Sat: 4.4% drop (XMas Eve - NYE)

Sun-Sun: 35.2% drop (Xmas - NYD)

 

R1 clearly had a better 3rd weekend?  Well, yes. But there are a few mitigating factors, including the dreaded talk about calendar placement.

 

But when looked at Weekend to Weekend, it's not that stark:

 

3rd Weekend Drop:

R1 (3day only): 22.5% drop

TLJ (3day only): 26.7% drop (proj)

 

So better than TFA's 3rd weekend (39.5% drop), but slightly worse than R1's 3rd weekend.  Given that it's in between the two films grosswise, perhaps not too much of a surprise.

 

===

 

NONE of this is an attempt to 'excuse' TLJ's run.  But I am attempting to put it in some perspective.

[George Parr]

Well, you have to consider where the movies were coming from though.

 

TFA had its second weekend boosted by christmas day. This means its drop from first to second weekend was great for such a huge opening, especially when you add the fact that the first weekend had previews, but it also meant that the drop from second to third was going to be a bit bigger.

 

Rogue One had its second weekend hurt by christmas eve on Saturday, and only slightly boosted by christmas day on Sunday, so the second week drop was going to be bad. With NYE being a better box office day than christmas eve, while NYD being worse than christmas day, the movie could still get a good drop from second to third weekend.

 

TLJ, however, had the worst situation for the second weekend, as it was the only one that had the negative effect of christmas eve, without having the positive effect of christmas day to balance it a bit. Hence it dropped big time in its second weekend. With that drop already being bigger than "normal", the third weekend should have bounced back a bit (not necessarily have grown, not at such a size, but definately getting a great drop). So while the drop from second to third weekend does look good in itself, it pretty much comes from the fact that the second weekend was deflated and thus lower than it usually would have been.

 

It may be a bit unfair due to other circumstances, like difference in previews and the biggest holidays falling differently for eacht movie, but here's the drop from 1st to 3rd weekend:

Rogue One -68%

TFA -63%

TLJ -76%

Edited January 1, 2018 by George Parr

[JonathanLB]

On the plus side for 2018 it should be a new record year for SW viewings for me since I’ve never had two movies out in the same year ha ha. Too bad one goal was productivity this year. Ah well there’s always next year. lol jk

[Cynosure]

Hoping Jumanji wins the 4 day weekend.

[Marek the Jedi]

Happy New Year to all BOX OFFICE FANS

may the TLJ win this weekend

Marek

[ThiagoMaia]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Greatest Showman's jump is quietly being overlooked by many when it's one of the craziest holds ever seen at the box office. If this weekend wasn't just a fluke and WOM really is that immaculate, it could be heading past 125m, no joke. Will laugh forever if it ended up going all the way to Les Mis #'s with an OD that was roughly 10% of that movie's. 

Crazy, right? That 73% is the biggest increase for a movie in 3000+ theaters ever! Also, Jumanji has the 4th.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The Greatest Showman's jump is quietly being overlooked by many when it's one of the craziest holds ever seen at the box office. If this weekend wasn't just a fluke and WOM really is that immaculate, it could be heading past 125m, no joke. Will laugh forever if it ended up going all the way to Les Mis #'s with an OD that was roughly 10% of that movie's. 

It'll start cooling down a bit soon with the holidays about to end but it's on track for at least $80-85M, which is an excellent rebound from its pre-Christmas numbers. Clearly the audience for it waited until after the holiday passed to check it out.

[dashrendar44]

 

[fmpro]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It'll start cooling down a bit soon with the holidays about to end but it's on track for at least $80-85M, which is an excellent rebound from its pre-Christmas numbers. Clearly the audience for it waited until after the holiday passed to check it out.

Freakin Passengers made 40 mill more after new years weekend from around the same 3 day number...... Next weekend could be -20% 

 100 mill+ is more likely than under IMO

Edited January 1, 2018 by fmpro

[BK007]

3 hours ago, Webslinger said:

Okay, I'm gonna try not to stir the pot too much here with some brief thoughts on the weekend...

 

The Last Jedi is obviously still performing at a high level, but yes, it's a disappointment relative to the expectations. I wish it was doing better, but it's still on track to finish well over $600 million and will ultimately see about as big of a drop as Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones did from the first films of their respective trilogies. I do worry about where the Star Wars saga is headed at the box office from here on out, but that's less because of The Last Jedi and more because of the troubling vibes surrounding Solo and the fact that Disney is pushing such a high volume of Star Wars films so fast.

 

Jumanji is putting up astounding numbers. I didn't think it had a chance at challenging Last Jedi for the top spot, yet it came pretty close for the weekend overall and within a hair's breadth of winning Saturday and Sunday. I could easily see it rising to #1 next weekend. How it performs in January remains to be seen, but it should be good for at least $275 million in total and could push toward $300 million if it holds up really well throughout the month. Either way, it's a huge - and much-needed - winner for Sony.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 is still putting up anemic numbers, but the boost from the holiday weekdays should still be enough to carry it past $100 million.

 

I'm really taken aback by that jump for The Greatest Showman. I'd definitely written it off about a week ago, and yet it should now be able to finish with a somewhat respectable total. I don't know about $100 million, but it's certainly going to get closer to that milestone than I was expecting. I'm curious to see what its demos look like; it's harmless enough to appeal to families (hence the PG), but the audience I saw it with on Christmas Day appeared to be very predominantly over the age of 25.

 

I would say that Ferdinand is doing okay in such a crowded marketplace where the top two movies are drawing significant family audiences, but that $111 million budget hurts.

 

It's too bad that Coco didn't see a bigger boost, but it does have more family-appealing and PG-rated films in its way than Moana did last year.

 

All the Money in the World has put up an unspectacular performance thus far, but that's somewhat understandable given the challenges stemming from the Spacey fallout, the fact that reshot scenes were just completed mere weeks ago, and the dark subject matter. Barring a shockingly strong Oscar showing in a few weeks, it's not going to last past January.

 

Darkest Hour is doing really well, relatively speaking. It's basically matching up with the other adult movies despite playing in just a fraction of the theaters. It'll be worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to Oscar nominee announcement. I was initially skeptical of the plan to take it mostly wide over Christmas, but it's clearly connecting with older viewers seeking prestige fare.

 

That drop for Downsizing is decidedly not encouraging, but unsurprising in the face of negative audience reactions. It's in for some ugly drops in the next couple weeks.

 

I'm surprised that Father Figures managed a modest jump from last week, but that's one of the few silver linings in its otherwise poor run.

 

The Shape of Water isn't performing as well as I'd hoped it would in its expansion (ditto for Call Me by Your Name). Awards hype should keep the two afloat for some time yet, however.

 

It's very nice to see that The Post is still kicking ass in very limited release. It should be able to ride the buzz to a really solid performance when it goes wide in two weeks.

 

Disney have definitely push too much too soon, and I'm glad they have. The entire marketplace being swamped with just a few franchises (and all of which Disney own) is not healthy and I already skip most CBMs and SW films because they are just not that good. Sure, TLJ will still make over $600m, so it's not alarm bells, but I hope this fatigue sets in quick and a backlash of oversequelization is yet to come. I need, and perhaps many others, do need more diversity.

 

While it's hard to call Jumanji diverse, being a semi-sequel to an established property, I'd say that it was at least creative with its new spin, and it's definitely offered something different than what we've been treated to for the past few years, if not all that much different from movies past that time.

 

I'm going to disagree with Pitch Perfect 3. I think it's doing well considering it looked terrible, followed a terrible film and the franchise is unfortunately massively stale now. To manage to get to or close to $100m in the end is really good. They might even make a PP4 with that, that no one wants and that will probably tank.

 

Ferdinand certainly got a boost recovery out of nowhere, when you'd have thought Coco might surge past it. Definitely feel the political climate in America is affecting Coco for the worse. A shame, but I'm glad it was made and is doing well in Asia. Will get the Blu-Ray after skipping the Good Dinosaur and Dory. Did Pixar release something in 2014? Can't seem to recall anything.

 

Lastly, I'm not surprised All the Money in the World is disappointing (in terms of WOM). Kudos to Scott for dropping Spacey, but the subject matter and the characters are rather unpalatable. I don't even mean the kidnapping, but more like, who really cares about their family? In a sense, it's pretty tone deaf. Then again, people find all kinds of questionable stories and people fascinating.

 

 

 

[BK007]

9 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Freakin Passengers made 40 mill more after new years weekend from around the same 3 day number...... Next weekend could be -20% 

 100 mill+ is more likely than under IMO

I too am wondering if it is that impressive.

 

I mean, I just checked to see that it now holds the record, lol, but at the same time, it just feels that that is normal?

 

Most of the movies on the list are of course in December that opened on Christmas weekend, many probably with depressed weekends too and probably boosted NY weekends.

 

 

[Chaz]

The soundtrack for the Greatest Showman is really making the rounds. I think that is really going to help the movie. People love the music.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Chaz

[dxmatrixdt]

Expansions this upcoming weekend could be heavy hitters for theater count losses. 

Insidious - 3,000

Molly's Game - 1,500

+MORE

 

Jan 12-14th

Paddington 3,300 +

Proud Mary 2,750 +

The Commuter 2,500

Condorito 1,000

The Post 2,000+

+MORE

 

made up estimates

Edited January 1, 2018 by Matrix4You

[Noctis]

I hope everyone has a great 2018. 

 

2017 was a fucking tough year, and most people I know just wanted the year to end. 

[TwoMisfits]

TGS increase is awesome, BUT I wonder if without Moviepass, it would have seen nearly that much.  This movie seems like the perfect "2nd choice" when you can't get into Jumanji yet...pleasant, PG, likeable leads, etc...

 

I would love to see another breakdown of Moviepass goers (like we got at what, end of November, from Deadline), to see how and where they used their holiday cards...

[filmlover]

Phantom Thread will be adding 2 theaters this upcoming weekend before expanding to "more markets" on the 12th ahead of its supposedly wide release on the 19th.

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/daniel-day-lewis-phantom-thread-post-box-office-1202650461/

[dxmatrixdt]

.

 

 

 

Edited May 6, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[TwoMisfits]

Ways you can tell your area goes back to school tomorrow...

 

Not a single ticket sold for any showing after 8:30pm for TLJ or Jumanji tonight yet...should be fascinating to see as areas cycle back into schools if the areas still "off" like one of these movies more than the other (like what happened to JL and Coco)...

 

It's too bad for me, b/c I now won't be able to get a feel for the movie all week, since I know my area will be DEAD...and some other area will still be selling tickets:)...

[Chaz]

Back to school on January 2? That is criminal.

[estebanJ]

15 hours ago, The Last AndyLL said:

 

 

And that is why TLJ is 'only' going to have around a 3 multiplier.   Unlike TFA a decent amount of those 1st WE viewers decided to see something else instead of a 2nd viewing.

 

But lets remove some of the hyperbole.

 

People not seeing a movie more than once in the theater does not mean there is  toxic... or even mixed... WOM.

 

A movie doing over 300 million in the 2 weeks after OW does not have mixed WOM.

 

A movie that will end with around 650M DOM does not have mixed WOM.

 

TLJ turned out not to be an 'event' movie like TFA and there is no doubt it is divisive with some hard core fans.

.

TLJ is going to drop from TFA about the same amount as AOTC did from TPM.  The big OW got a lot of us excited that TLJ was going to buck the trend.  But it didn't happen.

 

Disney is not panicked... there is not going to be any changes to their plans because of TLJ... and SW fans will be back to watch IX on OW in 2 years

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with most of that, but  IMO Disney should shift gears a little anyway. WOM may not have been an issue here, but fatigue may well be. Three straight years of $500m + DOM Star Wars films is IMO unsustainable. There will be a big-budget SW flop soon if they don't start spacing these out more, once every two years for example. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by estebanJ