New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I think you speak too soon on that #3 spot. Very strong chance it will not reach JW’s 652, never mind Titanic’s 659. 

man 5th place. how lousey 

[WrathOfHan]

When I saw Detroit, an old couple walked in right when the cops were found not guilty. They tried taking my seat, and I said, "Uh, you're in the wrong showing of this" because there was another showing starting on the screen next door. Completely ruined the moment for me  

Edited December 31, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Cmasterclay]

I haven't posted my TLJ box office thoughts, Attack of the Clones and Empire both dropped about 33% (I did the exact math in another topic) from their predecessors, which is exactly where this is headed for. Most people here are predicting that Solo drops about 33% from Rogue One, too! That is the pattern with this series. Nothing about this is stunning at all. Pretty much everyone who sees TLJ saw The Force Awakens. But PLENTY of people who saw Force Awakens are not seeing the Last Jedi, because it doesn't have that curious rush factor. It is totally natural. Avengers1 and JW had once in a generation perfect storm of factors going for them, and they're STILL going to do less than TLJ, a middle movie in a saga. It's just projection of their own hate, half rooted in the movie not fulfilling their theories and half rooted in the SJW angle, that makes this run "disappointing" in some way. It's the most annoying and toxic box office discussion in years, and that's saying something. I've been disengaged from weekend threads because of it, despite a ton interesting going on.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

man 5th place. how lousey 

 

It’s fine. 

[Brainbug]

According to some posters here, TLJ may be the first 600M+ DOM grossing B.O. disappointment. Pathetic, really, it has a chance to miss the Top 30 adjusted highest-grossing movies of all time, so it may has to settle for the Top 40.

 

Sad.

[Cmasterclay]

I think it ends up around 670 still. IDK, schols throughout the south are still out this week, and I'd say in most of the country it's the same thing. Plus, January fairly empty. I think it legs out. Maybe not though. Maybe it finishers with a mere 650.

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Maybe it finishers with a mere 650.

 

more like flop wars amirite

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think it ends up around 670 still. IDK, schols throughout the south are still out this week, and I'd say in most of the country it's the same thing. Plus, January fairly empty. I think it legs out. Maybe not though. Maybe it finishers with a mere 650.

 

If it continues its recent pace compared to Rogue One, it will finish around 625.

 

I am already adding extra school holiday boost between Tuesday and Thursday compared to Rogue One. That pushes it up to 645, but that might be generous. And maybe you are right that it will go to 670. We shall see. 

[Fancyarcher]

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

How Coco gross just $ 6.57M coming from a $ 2.82M friday?

Strange...

 

 

I'm assuming they're underestimating Coco numbers a bit intentionally. I expecting actuals on Monday to go up same with TLJ. 

[JB33]

Nobody is saying the total for TLJ is a disappointment, or the drop from TFA. Jesus Christ. It's the drops and jumps after a $220M OW. Don't act like this was going to be the case all along. The audience showed up in huge numbers on its opening weekend and the numbers since show that a lot of people weren't happy.

 

We can all meet in the middle of this discussion. The final numbers for this will be outstanding, obviously, but the legs will be disappointing given its opening weekend and the fact it occupied the plum holiday slot. Let's not just conveniently ignore all that.

Edited December 31, 2017 by JB33

[Brainbug]

Of note, TLJ has nor earned the exact same amount OS as Rogue One last year, 523M.

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm already ready for The Last Jedi to be out of theaters so we can stop having the same arguments over its box office numbers every single day.

But instead we'll have daily arguments until Black Panther comes out. Yay!

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Nobody is saying the total for TLJ is a disappointment, or the drop from TFA. Jesus Christ. It's the drops and jumps after a $220M OW. Don't act like this was going to be the case all along. The audience showed up in huge numbers on its opening weekend and the numbers since show that a lot of people weren't happy.

 

We can all meet in the middle of this discussion. The final numbers for this will be outstanding, obviously, but the legs will be disappointing given its opening weekend and the fact it occupied the plum holiday slot. Let's not just conveniently ignore all that.

 

There is a case to be made where i completey agree with @The Last Panda: December 200M+ OW movies are just unprecedented. TFA doesnt count, it was a cultural phenomenon just like Titanic, Avatar or E.T. - defying BO logic left and right. A once-in-a-lifetime run. Rogue One doesnt really work either, because it openend with 65M less and TLJ has already earned as much money as Rogue One.

 

We are in new waters here. Past examples like LOTR, Hobbit and Co. are just not working.

 

You can, ofc, disagree with that point of view.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Nobody is saying the total for TLJ is a disappointment, or the drop from TFA. Jesus Christ. It's the drops and jumps after a $220M OW. Don't act like this was going to be the case all along. The audience showed up in huge numbers on its opening weekend and the numbers since show that a lot of people weren't happy.

 

We can all meet in the middle of this discussion. The final numbers for this will be outstanding, obviously, but the legs will be disappointing given its opening weekend and the fact it occupied the plum holiday slot. Let's not just conveniently ignore all that.

What you said is right. It has a huge final gross and it had disappointing legs, these can both be true at the same time without invalidating one another. If we go back to the OW thread, we would be hard pressed to find anyone saying it would end below  Avatar based on OW, and the floor for Christmas Day was set as 35-40M. 

[WrathOfHan]

Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$52,446,000	-26.7%	4,232	-	$12,393	$517,144,228	-	3
2	2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$50,570,000	+38.9%	3,765	-	$13,432	$169,825,967	$90	2
3	3	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$17,780,000	-10.8%	3,468	+21	$5,127	$64,268,470	$45	2
4	4	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$15,270,000	+73.4%	3,316	+310	$4,605	$48,785,986	$84	2
5	5	Ferdinand	Fox	$11,650,000	+59.2%	3,337	-293	$3,491	$53,810,105	$111	3
6	6	Coco	BV	$6,572,000	+22.1%	2,104	-7	$3,124	$178,944,459	-	6
7	N	All the Money in the World	TriS	$5,450,000	-	2,074	-	$2,628	$12,610,000	-	1
8	8	Darkest Hour	Focus	$5,280,000	+35.7%	943	+137	$5,599	$17,926,287	-	6
9	7	Downsizing	Par.	$4,600,000	-7.2%	2,664	-4	$1,727	$17,058,365	$68	2
10	9	Father Figures	WB	$3,705,000	+13.0%	2,902	-	$1,277	$12,740,000	-	2
11	10	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$3,490,000	+16.3%	756	+30	$4,616	$15,630,155	-	5
12	11	Wonder	LGF	$3,250,000	+63.6%	1,193	+63	$2,724	$121,558,865	-	7
13	N	Molly's Game	STX	$2,330,000	-	271	-	$8,598	$5,227,552	-	1
14	15	Lady Bird	A24	$1,426,164	+42.8%	392	-10	$3,638	$31,392,177	-	9
15	14	Justice League	WB	$1,265,000	+19.3%	1,101	-	$1,149	$225,627,455	-	7
16	18	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$1,000,000	+19.9%	540	-161	$1,852	$311,370,239	$180	9
17	17	The Disaster Artist	A24	$951,982	+7.6%	507	-10	$1,878	$17,880,334	-	5
18	16	Daddy's Home 2	Par.	$935,000	+0.4%	770	-303	$1,214	$101,804,807	$69	8
19	19	Call Me by Your Name	SPC	$702,098	-5.7%	115	+1	$6,105	$4,610,862	-	6
20	21	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$665,000	+26.5%	266	-41	$2,500	$24,154,084	-	8
21	23	I, Tonya	Neon	$661,603	+60.1%	49	+7	$13,502	$2,402,388	-	4
22	22	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	Fox	$625,000	+20.3%	391	-56	$1,598	$100,628,049	$55	8
23	20	The Post	Fox	$539,440	+2.6%	9	-	$59,938	$1,738,481	$50	2
24	13	The Star	Sony	$517,000	-60.2%	661	-445	$782	$40,144,925	$20	7
25	N	Phantom Thread	Focus	$220,000	-	4	-	$55,000	$531,345	-	1
26	24	Youth (2017)	CL	$185,000	-42.8%	35	+1	$5,286	$1,565,384	-	3
27	N	Ex-File 3 (Qian Ren 3)	CL	$110,000	-	21	-	$5,238	$110,000	-	1
28	27	The Man Who Invented Christmas	BST	$67,017	-42.4%	146	-	$459	$5,579,372	-	6
29	30	The Florida Project	A24	$46,680	+58.9%	33	-10	$1,415	$5,293,567	-	13
30	N	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	SPC	$36,048	-	4	-	$9,012	$36,048	-	1
31	32	Hostiles	ENTMP	$35,714	+56.3%	5	+2	$7,143	$88,006	-	2
32	34	Jane (2017)	Abr.	$26,748	+48.2%	21	+2	$1,274	$1,491,914	-	11
33	31	Happy End	SPC	$15,466	-33.0%	3	-	$5,155	$60,125	-	2
34	35	Marshall	ORF	$10,905	-1.1%	50	-8	$218	$9,468,630	$12	12
35	49	My Friend Dahmer	FR	$3,500	+234.0%	2	-1	$1,750	$1,296,753	-	9

[RichWS]

Just now, Brainbug said:

TFA doesnt count, it was a cultural phenomenon just like Titanic, Avatar or E.T. - defying BO logic left and right. A once-in-a-lifetime run.

 

Once-in-a-decade, but I get your drift. 

[John Marston]

Man Last Jedi fanboys are really uptight. Can't handle anything negative being said about movie or the box office 

[scabab]

Dropped even further from estimates, $700 million gets even further away.

[RyneOh1040]

17 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I haven't posted my TLJ box office thoughts, Attack of the Clones and Empire both dropped about 33% (I did the exact math in another topic) from their predecessors, which is exactly where this is headed for. Most people here are predicting that Solo drops about 33% from Rogue One, too! That is the pattern with this series. Nothing about this is stunning at all. Pretty much everyone who sees TLJ saw The Force Awakens. But PLENTY of people who saw Force Awakens are not seeing the Last Jedi, because it doesn't have that curious rush factor. It is totally natural. Avengers1 and JW had once in a generation perfect storm of factors going for them, and they're STILL going to do less than TLJ, a middle movie in a saga. It's just projection of their own hate, half rooted in the movie not fulfilling their theories and half rooted in the SJW angle, that makes this run "disappointing" in some way. It's the most annoying and toxic box office discussion in years, and that's saying something. I've been disengaged from weekend threads because of it, despite a ton interesting going on.

it's all perspective.  it depends on what we're discussing.  the film is a massive hit that will make massive amounts of money.

 

the film also opened during the holiday season and will have a bad multiplier.  yes, bad, given the PERSPECTIVE.  when the film came out opening weekend, and CRUSHED it, EVERYONE in here threw out historical patterns when WOM was discussed.  'It can't get below a 3.5x! It's impossible it's the holidays!  800 is happening! A sure thing!'.  But then dailys started coming in, it followed NONE of the patterns we've seen before (dropping on Friday and staying flat is straight up shocking) and the same people who cried history will prevail started saying 'well, actually, weve never had a 220 opener before that wasnt a cultural phenomenon this is doing what it should'. 

 

It can't have bad WOM because Cinemascore and Comscore say so, and also Jumanji is now being deemed a cultural phenomenon (lol) because it's going to hit 300 (basically what Sing did to RO, which by the way held up fine) and the run time!  the run time!  

 

So yes, to some of us the run post OW is disappointing.  The same way Ultron's was.  Because we aren't moving the goal post every time a new variable might come into play.

Edited December 31, 2017 by RyneOh1040

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

What you said is right. It has a huge final gross and it had disappointing legs, these can both be true at the same time without invalidating one another. If we go back to the OW thread, we would be hard pressed to find anyone saying it would end below  Avatar based on OW, and the floor for Christmas Day was set as 35-40M. 

 

People were still predicting 850m or so afer opening weeeke d