New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Lordmandeep]

Based on the opening being rather backloaded.

 

I think it should have crossed 700 million 

[jimisawesome]

58 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Agreed...

 

I wouldn't be surprised that when the contracts end, if every 12 and below drops it to 1 screen and some smaller theaters already start the full drop...

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if less theaters take this deal for ix...or if Disney is forced to reduce the terms...

No chance they get this same deal again when more theaters are getting a second premium house.  Not having Jumanji on some are costing theaters a lot of money right now. 

[CoolioD1]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

JJA will cast The Rock in IX.

no that's not it. clearly episode ix needs more GnR in the marketing

[ThomasNicole]

37 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

I'm assuming they're underestimating Coco numbers a bit intentionally. I expecting actuals on Monday to go up same with TLJ. 

Yeah, i'm thinking maybe the Friday number was overestimate when i see the weekend number, but now i see the daily estimates and that 65% drop on sunday doesn't make any sense

 

I think Coco will up to $ 7.2 - 7.6M

[bamajagala]

38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I haven't posted my TLJ box office thoughts, Attack of the Clones and Empire both dropped about 33% (I did the exact math in another topic) from their predecessors, which is exactly where this is headed for. Most people here are predicting that Solo drops about 33% from Rogue One, too! That is the pattern with this series. Nothing about this is stunning at all. Pretty much everyone who sees TLJ saw The Force Awakens. But PLENTY of people who saw Force Awakens are not seeing the Last Jedi, because it doesn't have that curious rush factor. It is totally natural. Avengers1 and JW had once in a generation perfect storm of factors going for them, and they're STILL going to do less than TLJ, a middle movie in a saga. It's just projection of their own hate, half rooted in the movie not fulfilling their theories and half rooted in the SJW angle, that makes this run "disappointing" in some way. It's the most annoying and toxic box office discussion in years, and that's saying something. I've been disengaged from weekend threads because of it, despite a ton interesting going on.

Amen. I've also had to disengage as well even though I want the numbers.

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, i'm thinking maybe the Friday number was overestimate when i see the weekend number, but now i see the daily estimates and that 65% drop on sunday doesn't make any sense

 

I think Coco will up to $ 7.2 - 7.6M

Given how good Coco's Sundays have been, I expect that Sunday number to go up by 10% or so. I know there's been a lot of competition, but it's still an odd estimate.

[jimisawesome]

36 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

According to some posters here, TLJ may be the first 600M+ DOM grossing B.O. disappointment. Pathetic, really, it has a chance to miss the Top 30 adjusted highest-grossing movies of all time, so it may has to settle for the Top 40.

 

Sad.

 

Is this the A AOU thread?  Yes it is a disappointment in the context of the expectations that existed for the film at boxofficetheory.   It will still make money and still be profitable but this movie will make over a 100 million dollars less than most of the lower end predictions. 

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

Is this the A AOU thread?  Yes it is a disappointment in the context of the expectations that existed for the film at boxofficetheory.   It will still make money and still be profitable but this movie will make over a 100 million dollars less than most of the lower end predictions  projections. 

FTFY.

[boomboom234]

Moving goalposts are always nice I remember OW people were saying at least better than avatar now 650 looks in doubt and Jumanji will beat it next weekend 

[Rebeccas]

1 hour ago, REC said:

I wonder whether someone likes TLJ how that breaks out by age, and how that person generally ranks the other SW films.

 

I only know one person who thought it was OK.  My circle of friends and family its generally negative or at a minimum nitpicky (without much desire to see it again).

 

In my case I'm mid-40's, and my friends are late 30's or in their 40's.  We are all of the opinion that we liked the original SW movies to varying degrees, didn't like the prequels pretty much at all, and are mixed on the new ones (some liked TFA or RO, some didn't etc).  We are nearly universally negative on TLJ.

 

It makes me wonder if liking TLJ is a generational affair.  If you're in your 20's and grew up with the prequels, maybe that canto bight segment is a fun meaningful adventure to you.

Nope. 27 here and hated it 

[Brainbug]

Fun Fact: The Last Jedi was 4 days in the 300Ms and now also 4 Days in the 400Ms:

 

22 1  $24,763,084 38.4% / -76.3% 4,232 / $5,851 $321,365,440 / 8	23 1  $29,172,415 17.8% / -54.4% 4,232 / $6,893 $350,537,855 / 9
24 1   1 $17,629,999 $71,565,498 -39.6% / -65.7% - / -67.5% 4,232 / $4,166 $16,911 $368,167,854 / 10	25 1   1 $27,459,557 $99,025,055 55.8% / 27.4% - / -55% 4,232 / $6,489 $23,399 $395,627,411 / 11	26 1  $27,734,356 1% / 36.9% 4,232 / $6,553 $423,361,767 / 12	27 1  $21,846,132 -21.2% / 29.3% 4,232 / $5,162 $445,207,899 / 13	28 1   1 $19,490,329 $168,095,872 -10.8% / 8.9% - / -43.3% 4,232 / $4,605 $39,720 $464,698,228 / 14	29 1 (estimate) $19,064,000 -2.2% / -23% 4,232 / $4,505 $483,762,228 / 15

[That One Girl]

FandangoNow posted the bestsellers of 2017.  Here it is:

 

https://www.fandangonow.com/list/bestsellers-2017?cmp=EM_FNOW_20171231_FNOW_MRKT_TSLT_RTA_YearInReview

 

Top 5 is Moana, Wonder Woman, Rogue One, Sing, and Guardians of the Galaxy 2.  Bestselling film that made less than 100M is John Wick 2.

[DAR]

34 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

If Jumanji had been a Disney movie, its RT score would be like 96. 

 

Oh man thank you for that fresh 2016 take

[NoLegMan]

I've seen the arguments for and against. Putting my opinion aside of this film. Based on it's numbers and it's assumed profit margin after it finishes. Disney will not consider this movie a disappointment. That is just the reality. Regardless of what we feel about the movie. Sure it may not get it's 3x multiplier it's not the be all end all. I do think it's very dishonest to say this movie was a box office disappointment. 

[Elessar]

It is actually possible that TLJ finishes bellow Titanic. Awesome!

[boomboom234]

2 minutes ago, NoLegMan said:

I've seen the arguments for and against. Putting my opinion aside of this film. Based on it's numbers and it's assumed profit margin after it finishes. Disney will not consider this movie a disappointment. That is just the reality. Regardless of what we feel about the movie. Sure it may not get it's 3x multiplier it's not the be all end all. I do think it's very dishonest to say this movie was a box office disappointment. 

Yes they will if they projected it higher, corporations move on expectation of profit not actual profit if it didn't meet their expectation it is a disappointment. Look at the new battlefront game it has good sales but because of controversy its ales are nowhere near what was projected and EA is suffering despite the fact they are making a profit

[DAR]

Thing is only box office nerds like us are going to care about wom or multipliers.  Whereas the GA is going to look at the grosses and see a 600/1b film and rightly think it’s a success 

[jb007]

13 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Moving goalposts are always nice I remember OW people were saying at least better than avatar now 650 looks in doubt and Jumanji will beat it next weekend 

Yet TLJ will beat this garbage of a movie by $350m. 

[NoLegMan]

1 minute ago, boomboom234 said:

Yes they will if they projected it higher, corporations move on expectation of profit not actual profit if it didn't meet their expectation it is a disappointment. Look at the new battlefront game it has good sales but because of controversy its ales are nowhere near what was projected and EA is suffering despite the fact they are making a profit

Do we even know what Disney expected it to earn? They may have accounted for this sort of drop.

[Ryan Reynolds]

2017’s 3 Top-Grossing Movies Had Female Lead for First Time in Nearly 60 Years  You have to go back to the days of Elizabeth Taylor for the last time women topped the box office charts