Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[FantasticBeasts]

Generally box office journalism is pretty shit to be honest. This forum alone has more knowledge than all the prestigious websites than report combined in like a thousand years.

[junkshop36]

I think Pro.boxoffice is pretty good and I like Guru’s write ups. Mojo is fine and Commingsoon is good for daily news. 

 

Collider is ok but Comicbook.com is terrible. 

 

The only time time I read the Deadline articles is when someone links to them here in a post lol

[NCsoft]

20 minutes ago, cory said:

Well the original grosses were 307 and 209 for a 68.07% retention. Which is exactly where TLJ will end up.

 

If you really want to get detailed Star Wars made about 220 before its first official reissue/reexpansion and ESB made about 181. Both around 14 months of release. That puts initial retention at about 82%.

This is probably the most important figure for ANH-ESB, but most people just ignore it since it doesn't fit the narrative.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is probably the most important figure for ANH-ESB, but most people just ignore it since it doesn't fit the narrative.

Quite the different era.

 

Look at Godfather 2 drop or Back to the future, etc.... before home video was popular it was really hard for a sequel to not drop hard. I am not sure matching a 70 release sequel drop is a sign that you have a good drop. Same for looking at Clones drop, the movie being universally seen as the worst Star Wars movie ever.

 

Not so sure how fair to Star Wars to only look at is first 14 month, when you compare it to the sequel of the biggest movie with a giant fanbase that rushed to see it.

 

One good element of that comparison too, is how phenomenally big Star Wars and Awaken were.

[CoolioD1]

the only movie site you need dudes.

 

http://lights-camera-jackson.com

[Noctis]

42 minutes ago, Chad Stevens said:

Well, I personally know some of the great people that work at Collider. I'm not afraid to stand up for my fellow journalists. Good people's IMHO.

 

 

Not afraid to stand up? This is a box office forum...what on earth would you have to be afraid of?

[Noctis]

35 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Generally box office journalism is pretty shit to be honest. This forum alone has more knowledge than all the prestigious websites than report combined in like a thousand years.

Change your display pic. It's hideous. 

[EmmaPeel]

2 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

I'm sure Jackman will do another musical. He comes from a theater background after all, and he does feel at home with musicals. 

 

Also unless it's crap, Wicked will be huge. 

I hope so. TGS is very entertaining and Jackman is spectacular.

[Elessar]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 

What a garbage website Collider is

Some of the writers are pretty awful, true, but i like its founder Steven Weintraub. Always excited about movies and respectful to the creators, with a positive attitude. Don't know why he's allowing such writers on his site...

[Chad Stevens]

Just now, Elessar said:

Some of the writers are pretty awful, true, but i like its founder Steven Weintraub. Always excited about movies and respectful to the creators, with a positive attitude. Don't know why he's allowing such writers on his site...

Steve is a great guy

[FantasticBeasts]

18 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Change your display pic. It's hideous. 

Better?

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

I think Jumanji's 4th weekend can also beat TLJ's 4th. Needs to fall 34.5% or better next weekend which is possible considering Sunday drop will be better than usual.

And that's virtually the same OW difference between as Titanic. 

[MCKillswitch123]

4 hours ago, a2knet said:

Father is getting close to Mother!

 

It actually hit a 3x from its 4-day opening weekend....... FATHER FIGURES HAS BETTER WOM THAN THE LAST JEDI CONFIRMED  

4 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

This movie better not get Devil Inside's legs, lol.

Well, considering that Devil Inside was DESPISED by everyone - and for great reasons - and this, well, isn't being despised (even by critics), there's an ok chance that won't happen. Hell, considering it opened much higher than it had any right to and HELD much better than it had any right to during the weekend - it even had a higher internal multiplier than Insidious 3, which was a Summer release - I think it has more than an ok chance to not have Devil Inside legs.

 

As a matter of fact, it's probably gonna be the 2nd highest grossing Insidious movie even adjusted for inflation (only behind the 2nd one). Which is not what anybody else was expecting (I thought this was gonna drop like 40% from the 3rd one).

[filmlover]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

It actually hit a 3x from its 4-day opening weekend....... FATHER FIGURES HAS BETTER WOM THAN THE LAST JEDI CONFIRMED  

A true upset for the ages.

[The Panda]

3 hours ago, DAR said:

I know @EmpireCity has said the Moviepass model won’t be sustainable and that theater chains are likely going to start offering their own version 

That’s very likely, there’s no way for MoviePass to be profitable unless it can get cut out deals from theaters, in which case the theater is better off just making their own version

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Generally box office journalism is pretty shit to be honest. This forum alone has more knowledge than all the prestigious websites than report combined in like a thousand years.

To be "fair" considering the level of decision that is made by people reading those (not at all ?) or the importance of the subject for the readers (near 0 importance), it is not too surprising, not sure what would be the point of good box office journalism or why a journalist would ever do this, not journalists doing not journalistic work for that subject for that audience is probably the way to go forever.

 

Maybe someone that worked at a relevant post for at a world wide distribution level for a long time will do it... but I imagine it will be more of an hobby talking about some specific movie from time to time than a full time gig....

Edited January 7, 2018 by Barnack

[Webslinger]

Excellent weekend for Jumanji. It's now locked to surpass $300 million and should be able to set its sights on It for the sixth spot on the yearly list, if not Spider-Man for fifth. Like Night at the Museum eleven years ago, it's a case of just the right movie striking at just the right time. For those interested in trivia, it's also the first wide release to rise to #1 since The Revenant nearly two years ago.

 

Insidious far outpaced my expectations. I thought this franchise had run its course, but the lack of horror movies in the last couple months left a clear opening for it to overperform. In hindsight, it makes perfect sense; for the past decade, almost every January has had at least one horror movie break out past modest expectations.

 

Last Jedi had a really rough drop, especially considering that all the other holdovers in the top ten held up really well. At this rate, it's probably headed for something in the range of $620-625 million. Disappointing? Yes. But with how passionately the fan base has been divided, I guess it's not all that surprising.

 

Awesome hold for The Greatest Showman. It has definitely taken off as a surprising, below-the-radar audience favorite. It's hard to believe how dramatically the film's prospects have changed since its anemic opening.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 held significantly better than I was expecting. Crossing $100 million won't be a problem.

 

Ferdinand hasn't done too badly despite competing against so many larger films. Paddington 2's arrival next weekend could hurt it, but otherwise, it could push close to $90 million.

 

Decent start for Molly's Game. Its performance as a late-entering possibility in the awards race will determine how far it ultimately goes.

 

Darkest Hour continues to perform surprisingly well. Depending upon how much love it gets from the Oscars, it could surpass Atonement as Joe Wright's highest-grossing film to date.

 

Coco continues to chug toward $200 million. Even if it hasn't performed quite as well as its first few weeks suggested it could, at least Disney isn't going to have to go to desperate measures to fudge it past that milestone, a la Tangled seven years ago.

 

The Post is still putting up eye-popping numbers in limited release. It's going to kick ass in wide release next weekend.

[The Panda]

Real Box Office journalism is would pretty much only be appealing to this board.  Studios already have insiders who can Project grosses for them, they don’t really need independent sources like Deadline.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Trust me, im very neutral on how different websites report on box office and movies, but Collider is just shit. They literally dont care about anything outside big franchises, mainly SW and the MCU. The YT channel is vastly better in comparison.

To be fair, so does everyone else

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

To be fair, so does everyone else

2017 domestic box office: $11,066,300,000

 

SW and MCU 2017 box office:

$572,513,602 + 389,813,101 + 334,201,140 + 312,478,786

 

1.6b or 14.4%

 

Or take it an other way, there is around 240m movie goers in the domestic market, around 14% of them go see an MCU movie, the vast majority don't care about those, many probably do not even know what they are.

 

Where you are right is: People watching youtube videos watching people talk a long time about movies they didn't even see are probably yes, mostly about big franchise, there is little to say otherwise about movie you have not seen.