Weekend Thread - Insidious 29.6M, Jumanji 37.2M, TLJ 23.7M, TGS 13.8M, PP3 10.3

[The Panda]

No wonder TLJ is a big flop!!  JonathanLB only saw it 16 times and not 51!

[Webslinger]

19 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

We don’t have theaters this high quality in Portland.

Besides the Lloyd Center 10, of course. 

[EmpireCity]

7 hours ago, Chad Stevens said:

Can anyone confirm the rumor that Star Wars The Last Jedi will drop a record 1700 cinemas this week? This drop would be the largest drop for a week since a film titled John Carter graced the big screens. 

 

I know the cinema that my son works AMC Mission Valley in San Diego, got around the deal that @Disney made regarding screens. This week they moved Jumanji to the largest screens and TLJ to the smallest screens. Apparently, the deal was screens and not auditorium size.

 

Wondering if anyone has some concrete evidence in the 1700. 

 

 

 

Lol.  

[filmlover]

I can see Star Wars dropping close to 1K theaters next weekend (4 new wide releases is a lot) but 1,700 is lol.

[titanic2187]

No way 1700 is happening, through the hold has been weak but the raw number still big for theater to cow

[aabattery]

On 1/4/2018 at 7:38 AM, aabattery said:

If this ends around 1.3B or so, I do believe it'll take the dubious honour or the biggest drop in actual money between sequels (ie not % wise).

 

I *think* the current holder of that record is Alice 2, which dropped off by 726M. TLJ needs to hit 1.342B to not have that 'title.' I've been semi off the grid for the past few days so I'm not quite up to date on what it's looking at OS-wise.

 

I think Avatar 2 has a good chance of dropping more than TLJ/Alice 2 did though. My current out-of-my-ass prediction for that is 1.85B WW, which would be a drop of 850M. 

 

Rob Cain made an article about this

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2018/01/06/last-jedi-has-set-its-first-box-office-record-biggest-ever-sequel-to-sequel-plunge/#663bfc3042ee

[lilmac]

It wasn’t long ago that I speculated that TFA would gross less than $500m. Some of the extreme upper estimates I saw were in the 700s. This trilogy will conclude with an average gross of $800m or so, higher than the OT’s first run adjusted average. I find that amazing. 

[DeeCee]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Lol.  

Yeah, it’s the 5th weekend. I’m thinking a 900-1100 drop. 

[lilmac]

10 hours ago, MikeQ said:

I wonder if Jumanji can actually stay flat for next weekend's 4-day MLK weekend compared to this weekend? Sing only dropped 8% from this weekend to its 4-day MLK weekend, and Jumanji has dropped considerably better this weekend than Sing did. Though, this is perhaps because of the calendar and many schools not being back in session until tomorrow (Jan 8th), making for a somewhat inflated weekend (and obviously week) than would usually be.

 

Even then, it looks to me that Jumanji is likely to hop and skip right over Thor: Ragnarok ($312.5M), IT ($327.5M), and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334M) to enter the top 5 grossing films of 2017. That is pretty remarkable. If it continues having exceptional legs, could it even hit the $350 million mark?

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

I think $350m is quite possible. January competition will be no worse than it already has. Expect decent holds from now through February as it finally peters out to $355-360m. Good enough to be Kevin Hart’s 2nd biggest hit and The Rock’s top grossing. A much needed hit for Sony.  

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, lilmac said:

It wasn’t long ago that I speculated that TFA would gross less than $500m. Some of the extreme upper estimates I saw were in the 700s. This trilogy will conclude with an average gross of $800m or so, higher than the OT’s first run adjusted average. I find that amazing. 

 

It will also be - by far - the highest grossing trilogy of all time. It was still The Hobbit with 2,9B, but TFA and TLJ alone account for nearly 3,3B atm. If Episode IX is really huge, the Sequel Trilogy has a shot at 5B combined worldwide.

[stripe]

Jumanji's success is top3 biggest BO surprises this year, behind IT and Get Out.

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, lilmac said:

It wasn’t long ago that I speculated that TFA would gross less than $500m. Some of the extreme upper estimates I saw were in the 700s. This trilogy will conclude with an average gross of $800m or so, higher than the OT’s first run adjusted average. I find that amazing.

 

So what you're saying is that you're impressed that TFA made so much money that TLJ is able to perform so badly in comparison and still make a bunch of money? I mean.. to each their own I guess.

[IronJimbo]

51 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

It will also be - by far - the highest grossing trilogy of all time. It was still The Hobbit with 2,9B, but TFA and TLJ alone account for nearly 3,3B atm. If Episode IX is really huge, the Sequel Trilogy has a shot at 5B combined worldwide.

If by all time you mean the from the past to 2 years from now. Extend that 2 years by another 2 years and guess what? Not the highest grossing trilogy of all time any more.

Edited January 8, 2018 by IronJimbo

[baumer]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

So what you're saying is that you're impressed that TFA made so much money that TLJ is able to perform so badly in comparison and still make a bunch of money? I mean.. to each their own I guess.

 

No, that's not what he means.  He means exactly what he said.  

[FantasticBeasts]

I think the sequel trilogy will do about $4.6b

Avatar should do it by the second movie.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

No, that's not what he means.  He means exactly what he said.  

Oh I misread it.

[baumer]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Oh I misread it.

 

No you didn't.  You're just doing what you always do.  You're just downplaying Star Wars every chance you get.  It's your M.O.  

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I think the sequel trilogy will do about $4.6b

Avatar should do it by the second movie.

This is going to be a club, I'm not sure when I'm allowed to make it (baumer insight would be helpful here) but a worldwide A1&2 vs Prequel Trilogy.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

This is going to be a club, I'm not sure when I'm allowed to make it (baumer insight would be helpful here) but a worldwide A1&2 vs Prequel Trilogy.

 

You can make clubs up to a year out from the release date.  Once Avatar has a solid release date, then you can go from there.

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

No you didn't.  You're just doing what you always do.  You're just downplaying Star Wars every chance you get.  It's your M.O.  

I'm bringing balance to the force! Just the perspective of a rival, to me TFA performed incredibly domestically and TLJ underperformed to expectations.. not really controversial opinion I would hope.

 

edit: that club is 23 months away

Edited January 8, 2018 by IronJimbo