BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[poweranimals]

AIW seems to be having bigger drops all the sudden. I don't get it.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

AIW seems to be having bigger drops all the sudden. I don't get it.

9

9

Avengers: Infinity War

Buena Vista

1,456

-708

-32.7%

-

-

-

-

9

 

It lost a third of its theaters.

[SLAM!]

I'm interested in seeing whether Hereditary can surpass Solo on the weekend chart, either this weekend or next weekend. It's holding better and there's a bevy of factors in its favor.

[Thrylos 7]

So with an 145, give or take, million ow for JW2 I am curious what kind of legs do people “that aren’t disappointed” see this film having . Just how much a drop  overall from the first film would be seen as disappointment, 250 million, 300 million, 350 million ?

[a2k]

I2 can never "disappoint" no matter what,

141 ow * 3.55x = 501 would have wowed everyone forever.

183 ow * 2.95x = 540 could disappoint some because of ridiculous talks of '600 locked' and 650-700 during the ow.

 

Sometimes we know how to be more absurd and unrealistic than

 

Spoiler

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think that I2 skewing a bit older than FD and TS3 probably was a factor in its steeper drop. Also, neither film faced anything on the scale on JW2.

 

It’s still doing well, but I hope it can get over $80m this weekend. It’ll have about the same hold as Cars 3. (which opened to a third as much and is faced the pathetic opening of TF5.)

 

Guessing mid 60s for JW2 and mid 40s for I2 next weekend. Neither has any notable competition. I currently see...

 

1. Jurassic World 2 - $63.5m

2. Incredibles 2 - $44m

3. Uncle Drew - $19.5m

4. Sicario 2 - $13m

5. Oceans Eight - $6.5m

[filmlover]

43 minutes ago, baumer said:

So here's how I see the rest of the weekend going:

 

Saturday will be about 49 million

Universal will estimate a 22% Sunday drop.

The weekend estimate will be 144 million.

Sunday willbe better than estimated and drop about 15%

Weekend will be about 147.5

It's already getting close to selling out most of the shows at my theater today (the one I'm going to only has a few seats left) so it wouldn't surprise me if it gets over $50M.

[nevermore]

7 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

So with an 145, give or take, million ow for JW2 I am curious what kind of legs do people “that aren’t disappointed” see this film having . Just how much a drop  overall from the first film would be seen as disappointment, 250 million, 300 million, 350 million ?

Anything over a billion WW is really good for this given the budget.  FK is just another dino adventure. The first one didn't have a hook for a sequel, and this one has no nostalgia boost.  Seems wishful thinking to expect only a $100M drop or so.

[baumer]

Here's an interesting question for you @Thrylos 7

 

What sequels do you think have done well? Narrow it down. What sequel  to a film that has opened has to 150 million dollars or more do you think has done well? Because like I said yesterday you seem to use therm bad quite a bit. So I'm just curious.

[Krissykins]

22 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

So with an 145, give or take, million ow for JW2 I am curious what kind of legs do people “that aren’t disappointed” see this film having . Just how much a drop  overall from the first film would be seen as disappointment, 250 million, 300 million, 350 million ?

Well it opened right in line with industry tracking (130-150) so.... With June and July weekdays?

 

2.5-2.7x probably?

 

So out of those three ranges you gave, the drop will possibly be closer to $250m. 

[Cmasterclay]

Went to book a Jurassic World ticket and everything before 11pm, and there's a ton of showings, is up to first two rows. Holy yikes. It's actually about where Incredibles was last Saturday at my theater. I think it does like 52. 40m Sunday would get it to 150. That's excellent. Well above my expectations - too bad a large contingent thought it was "crazy" to predict anything under 170 until a month ago.

[mahnamahna]

Solid for Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom. Considering how strong Summer 2018 has been compared to 2016 or 2017, I'd say $145-150 million OW is excellent. Even with so-so WOM, it should get to $325-350 million DOM. 

 

A little harsher than the predicts, but Incredibles 2 is having a great hold considering summer weekdays, its $18.5 million in Thurs previews and it being the most frontloaded Pixar sequel yet. Starting next week, its WOM should ease its drops (nothing kid-friendly next weekend, double-features with Ant-Man, HT3 being much lower-key than SLoP or DM3, nothing kid-friendly over 7/20-7/22, Teen Titans being niche) until Christopher Robin takes its remaining screens. Depending on its 3rd and 4th weekend holds, it should end up anywhere between $550-620 million DOM. Fantastic run even if it barely reaches a 3x and likely means Brad Bird will get an original film greenlit if he's willing to fasttrack Incredibles 3 for 2023-2025. 

 

Ocean's 8 is slowly showing strong WOM. It should be able to reach $135-140 million DOM, maybe a little higher. 

 

Deadpool 2 has quietly gotten itself towards $320-325 million DOM. Despite the decline from the first film, it's still a better performance than the PG-13 Iron Man 2. 

 

I'd love to see Won't You Be My Neighbor? be the next March of the Penguins, but it seems like it'll do slightly better than RBG. It's got a feel-good tone that will make it slightly more GA-accessible than the typical documentary. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

I'm glad for this weekend, regardless of my thoughts on JW. Only two movies the entire year I think even could get close to 100m OW, and I don't have either doing it. So this is exciting.

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm glad for this weekend, regardless of my thoughts on JW. Only two movies the entire year I think even could get close to 100m OW, and I don't have either doing it. So this is exciting.

Ant-man and Poppins? 

[Walt Disney]

38 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

So with an 145, give or take, million ow for JW2 I am curious what kind of legs do people “that aren’t disappointed” see this film having . Just how much a drop  overall from the first film would be seen as disappointment, 250 million, 300 million, 350 million ?

I have the same standard for all blockbusters. If it's one of the top 200 domestic grossing films of all-time (adjusted for inflation), then I consider it to be a success. So the amount that it drops from Jurassic World isn't my measuring stick for its success.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, TMP said:

Ant-man and Poppins? 

Poppins will be the top grossing movie of rest of the year. But no. Ant-Man and Venom, actually.

[Thrylos 7]

18 minutes ago, baumer said:

Here's an interesting question for you @Thrylos 7

 

What sequels do you think have done well? Narrow it down. What sequel  to a film that has opened has to 150 million dollars or more do you think has done well? Because like I said yesterday you seem to use therm bad quite a bit. So I'm just curious.

I am always talking worldwide not just taking a narrow viewpoint about the u.s ow. So the Reimi spider man sequels, the first 4 transformers films, the first 4 POTC films, the f&f films (though fotf dropped but not as bad as TLJ or JW2), the Lotr films, the Harry Potter films , the avengers films e.t.c

 

Both TLJ and JW2 will have historic , over 500 million , worldwide drops.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Thrylos 7

[Biggestgeekever]

People are gonna once again sleep on trailer views and be shocked when Venom outopens Spider-Man: Homecoming.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

People are gonna once again sleep on trailer views and be shocked when Venom outopens Spider-Man: Homecoming.

Honestly, it would be more hilarious if the Venom trailer views are just an anomaly and the movie opens with like 40-50m. Everyone here is expecting a big breakout, yet I still have trouble seeing much of the casual GA getting on board. 

[nevermore]

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

People are gonna once again sleep on trailer views and be shocked when Venom outopens Spider-Man: Homecoming.

I think trailer views are more indicative of the foreign take, rather than the domestic.  But yeah those views are very impressive, so who knows.