CoolioD1 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, MrPink said: I get my box office takes from J Lo stans. Yeah, and I wouldn't trust numbers from a Timberlake fanboy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 1 minute ago, cdsacken said: The point is it absolutely could stop growing. The growth rate is absolutely not exponential and it's hitting a wall especially could be the case with Hollywood films. I seriously doubt Avatar will be revolutionary on the scale that Avatar was. Frankly I don't see how it's possible. It's like comparing 32k to 4k quality vs vhs to dvd or dvd to blu ray. Most growth eventually plateaus, we know global population growth for example, will start to plateau near the end of this century or beginning of next. The question is not whether it will eventually stop growing exponentially, but how long will it be until it plateaus. I don't think a plateau is coming anytime soon, but you may think differently. But the thing is when @I Am makes a statement about the maximum a film can ever do is 2.8B, when global growth since 2009 has already brought the ceiling far past that point, that's clearly just not a projection into the future, but a refusal to acknowledge last 10 years' growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 Compare to Apple. People were under the delusional idea that exponential growth would last forever. It's already slowed dramatically and it will never come back. Primarily because they priced out the majority of the market with a top price phone of $1500, a $1000 increase in 11 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimiQ Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 I feel like the growth is logarithmic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnale101 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 I’m 21 and I got to university with lots of Ariana fans. Definitely most vocal but not even the biggest there are K pop bands bigger than her in the west she can do arena tours not stadium tours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Am Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, cdsacken said: The point is it absolutely could stop growing. The growth rate is absolutely not exponential and it's hitting a wall especially could be the case with Hollywood films. I seriously doubt Avatar will be revolutionary on the scale that Avatar was. Frankly I don't see how it's possible. It's like comparing 32k to 4k quality vs vhs to dvd or dvd to blu ray. I have a twenty-one year old friend whom I joked with about the fact it doesn't really seem like they have anything in their generation that will be able to drive massive interest like things from the '90s and before has been able to. I mean, what could possibly be their revived or remade franchise that cruises to a $4 billion box office total? "The Hunger Games?" 😂😂😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 Wish I lived in the star is borniverse where Ally is the biggest pop star and the “your ass looks so good in them jeans” song is #1 for the 38th consecutive week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: Yeah, and I wouldn't trust numbers from a Timberlake fanboy. We don't talk about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 (edited) 41 minutes ago, I Am said: The entertainment industry is the entertainment industry, whether you agree with it or not, and your one exception ("Frozen") doesn't overstate the rule, which is that Japan cares more about its own movies than it does white Hollywood films. Japan is the second largest music industry in the world, and yet only small number (one or two a YEAR) of currently globally popular Western artists are able to be profitable enough to do large format concerts there, while multiple older, pre-2000s Western artists are able to do Tokyo shows (Janet Jackson) or the occasional national tour (Mariah Carey) are able to sell them out. Like many, you think the West is the best, but living outside the country shows a much different reality. As you take Japan as an example: Last year the most successful movie was a Hollywood movie (Bohemian Rhapsody ($116+m), as, by the way, were 4-6 and 8-10, so out of the Top 10 only 2, 3 and 7 were local movies. 2017 1 (B&tB $111m), 2 5-7 and 9 and 10 were Hollywood movies, only 3, 4 and 8 were local movies. 2016 3-5, 7-9 were Hollywood movies, this year 1, 2, 6 and 10 were Japan movies, though with Your Name as the top movie this year money wise was dominated by local movies as it grossed 235m (which even for local movies rarely happens). 2015 Hollywood movies placed 1 (TFA $98m) -3, 6, 7 and 10 and local movies being 4, 5 and 9 and an India movie placing 8th. 2014 Hollywood movies only had 1, 3 and 4 place and all other movies were locals, but this year Frozen grossed $249m (which due to ER differences in $ is the highest grossing movie ever in Japan). Before that the years actually all tend to be a lot more local heavy with 2, 4 being the only two Hollywood films in the Top 10 in 2013, just 6, 8 and 9 in 2012 being Hollywood movies. In 2011 it was 1-3 and 5 (with the top two Harry Potter and Pirates being above $100m). In 2010 1, 2, 6, 7 were Hollywood (with the first three above $100m). Though since 2015 Hollywood has a higher share than local movies, I'd say they care about both, though in general local movies are making up a greater share below the top 10. What do we learn from that, it's not that Japan doesn't care about Hollywood movies, it's just they care more about the animated movies, musicals and Fantasy. But you are right about the point that it get's harder to make movies that please every market when more and more markets matter money wise. A theoretical record breaker movie would gross like in excess off 4.5b if it grossed more than the previous record holder in every market, because: Dom: $940m (+$3m) China: $870m (+$5m) India: $340m (+$0-30m) Japan: $250m (+$1m) France: $200m (+$6m) UK: $180m (+$0m) Germany: $170m (+$8m) would be $2950m together so just 7 markets and already higher than any other film, problem: Which is where you are right highest grossing movies are really different: Dom: TFA China: WW2 (local movies) India: Dangal (local movie) Japan: Frozen 2 France: Ch'tis (local movie) UK: TFA Germany: Avatar Edited May 16, 2019 by Taruseth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 Everyone knows Pitbull stans are the most reliable box office source 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, NCsoft said: Most growth eventually plateaus, we know global population growth for example, will start to plateau near the end of this century or beginning of next. The question is not whether it will eventually stop growing exponentially, but how long will it be until it plateaus. I don't think a plateau is coming anytime soon, but you may think differently. But the thing is when @I Am makes a statement about the maximum a film can ever do is 2.8B, when global growth since 2009 has already brought the ceiling far past that point, that's clearly just not a projection into the future, but a refusal to acknowledge last 10 years' growth. Yeah it's possible it could go higher not adjusting for inflation but it's possible it might not. In the US the industry is in a decline and we could see that replicated globally. The foregone conclusion of any movie hitting 3B WW in 2020 or 2021 is just as silly as saying 2.8 is the absolute cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Am Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, cdsacken said: Compare to Apple. People were under the delusional idea that exponential growth would last forever. It's already slowed dramatically and it will never come back. Primarily because they priced out the majority of the market with a top price phone of $1500, a $1000 increase in 11 years. According to many people here, $4 billion is definitely on the table, because people are going to be willing to pay whatever for a single movie ticket. $50 for a single adult ticket to see the opening night lieMAX release of the remake of the first Twilight book? GUARANTEED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MrPink said: We don't talk about that. Maybe the trolls 2 song will bring him another #1. You’ve got that to look forward to at least. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScoobyDoo21 Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Everyone knows Pitbull stans are the most reliable box office source I stan with Pitbulls. They are a misunderstood dog that are loving. I don't have a bull myself but i know a friend who had one and she was sweet as an angel. 😛 Edited May 16, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Am Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 1 minute ago, cdsacken said: Yeah it's possible it could go higher not adjusting for inflation but it's possible it might not. In the US the industry is in a decline and we could see that replicated globally. The foregone conclusion of any movie hitting 3B WW in 2020 or 2021 is just as silly as saying 2.8 is the absolute cap. And only one group is right, and so far it's the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 Just now, CoolioD1 said: Maybe the trolls 2 song will bring him another #1. You’ve got that to look forward to at least. would take over man of the woods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Am Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Taruseth said: What do we learn from that, it's not that Japan doesn't care about Hollywood movies, it's just they care more about the animated movies, musicals and Fantasy. Right. Care to take a look at the difficultly non-Japanese animators have in breaking into the animated movie industry over there? Is "Frozen" the rule... or the exception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted May 16, 2019 Share Posted May 16, 2019 (edited) Look our resident Rita Ora stan is the best box office contributor and no one will tell me otherwise A pop star and a box office draw? Not everyone can be that. Edited May 16, 2019 by Nova 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
