THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[The Futurist]

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Since we’re talking MCU future grosses, here’s what I think:

Black Widow: $90M/$255M/$720M

Eternals: $125M/$375M/$925M

Shang Chi: $100M/$130M/$300M/$975M (China helps)

DSitMoM: $145M/$390M/$1B

Thor4: $160M/$415M/$1.05B

 

Black Widow: $350m/1b

Eternals: No idea on this one honestly, will wait for marketing

Shang Chi: $450m/1.2b 

DS2: $275m/$825m 

Thor 4: $425m/1.15b

 

Based on how we saw landmark representation MCU films like BP and CM perform, I'd imagine Shang Chi has the most box office potential of all of these. Especially with Asia being such a mega market for the box office and if we see Mulan blow up next year. No idea really on Eternals, if audiences love it then it will probably be Guardians 2.0 at the box office.

 

Not at all convinced that Doctor Strange is popular enough to really carry his own film to the MCU stratosphere at the box office. Wanda isn't any kind of assist either for box office boost. And it also sounds like the concept could be the most niche one for an MCU film so far, with a horror tone to boot. Honestly, I could see a bit of a chance for that one to be the one that kind of break the MCU box office winning streak and underperforms, but for now I'll give it mild boosts over the first. 

[Nero]

24 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Since we’re talking MCU future grosses, here’s what I think:

Black Widow: $90M/$255M/$720M

Eternals: $125M/$375M/$925M

Shang Chi: $100M/$130M/$300M/$975M (China helps)

DSitMoM: $145M/$390M/$1B

Thor4: $160M/$415M/$1.05B

Out of reaction but I like your predicts. Although I think there is some chance to grow for some of them. 

[jedijake]

MAJOR low-balling from Disney for TLK numbers. $45 million Sunday? Seriously? I mean, a 27% drop isn't crazy, but I think the movie has better momentum than that for the summer. 

 

That said, I can't see the actual being more than $190 million. 8% difference in drops from estimate to actual sounds about right.

 

Would liked to have seen TLK be at LEAST higher on the all time list than AOU.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not at all convinced that Doctor Strange is popular enough to really carry his own film to the MCU stratosphere at the box office. Wanda isn't any kind of assist either for box office boost. And it also sounds like the concept could be the most niche one for an MCU film so far, with a horror tone to boot. Honestly, I could see a bit of a chance for that one to be the one that kind of break the MCU box office winning streak and underperforms, but for now I'll give it mild boosts over the first. 

Strange might be another Ant-Man and the Wasp. I think a 4 and a half year gap may have hurt its potential.

 

I am more surprised they're not releasing BP2 in 2021 but perhaps Coogler is not available due to Space Jam 2. 

 

[ArmGunar]

Look forward to OUATIH's performance, just to see if it could break even

I can't see the movie doing more than Django, both dom and worldwide but we'll see

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, ArmGunar said:

Look forward to OUATIH's performance, just to see if it could break even

I can't see the movie doing more than Django, both dom and worldwide but we'll see

I imagine if it does Inglorious Basterds numbers, Sony will be happy. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Strange might be another Ant-Man and the Wasp. I think a 4 and a half year gap may have hurt its potential.

 

I am more surprised they're not releasing BP2 in 2021 but perhaps Coogler is not available due to Space Jam 2. 

 

Yeah, the gap could be an issue too. I'm just really not sure I see the character's popularity and position in the franchise increasing going forward. The character is just not that likable as is, unless MoM is going to be a Ragnarok style re-imagining for him. 

[Mekanos]

Until we get a sense of Widow's story and scope I don't feel like it can do a billion. Think it's gonna be more of a lowkey action/spy thriller movie. Not sure the Widow character is a big hit with the GA either. My bet is Winter Soldier numbers but we shall see.

[MrPink]

9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Strange might be another Ant-Man and the Wasp. I think a 4 and a half year gap may have hurt its potential.

 

I am more surprised they're not releasing BP2 in 2021 but perhaps Coogler is not available due to Space Jam 2. 

 

 

Coogler is just a producer on Space Jam 2. They're just trying to give him all the time he needs to come up with something to live up to the first.

[Cap]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You're taking a Disney reported Sunday drop at face value?  

 

This isn't Sony or Universal we're dealing with here, you know.

It is Sunday post Hall H. My brain is only a quarter working cause the rest is just K😍E😱V🙌1🔥N😭😭😭

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Mekanos said:

Until we get a sense of Widow's story and scope I don't feel like it can do a billion. Think it's gonna be more of a lowkey action/spy thriller movie. Not sure the Widow character is a big hit with the GA either. My bet is Winter Soldier numbers but we shall see.

I think IW/EG did an excellent job of cementing the character and Johansson as an MCU A lister. I can only see her popularity being at a new all time high after those films. If the movie is well liked, I can't see it not being huge coming off of phase 3. Unless they really are going for something much more mature in tone or very low key in scope. That seems highly unlikely with this franchise though, let's be real. 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Maxmoser3]

The Lion King howls big opening record for a desperate box office.

 

The Lion King breaks big cash cow for a much needed recovery after a slumpy few months! 

 

Overall the top 12 was at an $247.6 million which is up by a high 54 percent from last year when sequels Equalizer 2 and Mamma Mia:Here We Go Again debuted over $30+ a piece and outperformed their predecessors. This is also the biggest weekend in 8 years since Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2! 

 

The Lion King scored high with an estimated $185 million! That debut is the best summer debut since possibly Jurassic World back in 2015! The debut is also a high for the month of July, and a high for live-action Disney remakes. The film will probably play well for mid-summer and Labor Day next month, and should easily do $445-$450 million domestic. 

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home surviving strong, however It’s 3rd weekend drop is slightly steeper than Homecoming. But on a safe note it is now $29.2 million away from a $1 billion worldwide, as it is now the highest grossing Spidey film worldwide. Now it just needs to outgross it’s 2002 original film domestic total which wouldn’t be a problem. 

 

Toy Story 4 hanging on the top three this weekend as it’s helping out with Lion King drive-in double features and such. It should play well still for families as it’s the sole animated choice as Secret Life Of Pets 2 is going to be put to sleep fast. $400+ million domestic is an easy bet soon.

 

Crawl held on average for a film of its nature this weekend. It’s 50% drop is much better than Piranha 3D(57.4%),  Mirrors(55.4%), and Snakes On A Plane(55.3%). But worse than 47 Meters Down which dropped under 40% two summers ago. But it’s close to both Alexandre Aja’s first American film The Hills Have Eyes remake and Lake Placid which both dropped at 49%. Overall Crawl is a decent helping for Paramount and should do $30 million or domestic.

 

Yesterday is still singing on the top five as it has dropped under 25% this weekend! The film has played outstanding so far this summer, and should do $65-$75 million domestic total.

 

Stuber Isn’t making any big donuts this weekend. It’s decline is quite typical for an R-rated comedy bomb. It’s drop is actually worse than The House and CHiPs as they dropped under 50%. However it is an improvement from Sex Tape as they dropped 58% five years ago. Stuber May find it’s way on FXX in 2021 but that’s about it for the film’s reputation, and $20 million is a pretty easy catch for its total.

 

Aladdin still hanging on the top 10 for almost two months! The film has played quite strong for a live-action Disney film and has been the longest running summer film I’ve seen on the top 10 for this long in years! $11.2 million away from $1 billion now! And should do over $355 million domestic, who would’ve thought that this summer?

 

Annabelle Comes Home playing typical horror. $75 million domestic or so is likely. Midsommar playing better, but should be small in the end. Secret Life Of Pets 2 is somehow still in the top 10, and should do $155 million or so domestic.

 

Limited releases i don’t normally talk about since really this is a normal guy talking box office, not an analyst. So Farewell and The Art Of Self Defense debuted decent in expansion in my eyes, but I don’t know what everyone else thinks.

 

overall 2019 is ahead by every year now except 2018. And July is well ahead of last year at this point. So it all depends on the other half of the year.

 

box office next weekend. Lion King should probably lead with $82-$87 million 2nd weekend. As for the sole newcomer, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood should debut with $35-$38 million in a farther second place. 

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think IW/EG did an excellent job of cementing the character and Johansson as an MCU A lister. I can only see her popularity being at a new all time high after those films. If the movie is well liked, I can't see it not being huge coming off of phase 3. Unless they really are going for something much more mature in tone or very low key in scope. That seems highly unlikely with this franchise though, let's be real. 

I just don't know what the hook is for a Widow movie. What makes her as a character stand out amongst the rest of the MCU? She's a badass normal with stun batons. Compared to the rest of the MCU solos, it seems... bland? I assume they're going for a Russian spy flashback sort of thing but that doesn't necessarily lend itself to big spectacle. 

[a2k]

Aladdin doing 1b ww amazes me more than EG beating Avatar (which also I did not see happening at all pre-release)

There got be quiet a few markets where Aladdin managed doing half of EG which is astounding for Aladdin.

[MovieMan89]

Did TS4 get the double feature boost from TLK I expected for Aladdin? Amazing hold. Totally locked to beat TS3 now and maybe by a decent margin too.

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

Aladdin doing 1b ww amazes me more than EG beating Avatar (which also I did not see happening at all pre-release)

There got be quiet a few markets where Aladdin managed doing half of EG which is astounding for Aladdin.

What about the market where Endgame dethroned Avatar for #1 Hollywood movie, and now Aladdin is challenging to dethrone Endgame

[excel1]

28 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

[excel1]

24 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Strange might be another Ant-Man and the Wasp. I think a 4 and a half year gap may have hurt its potential.

 

I am more surprised they're not releasing BP2 in 2021 but perhaps Coogler is not available due to Space Jam 2. 

 

Yeah both Black widow and strange are gong to decent but not huge numbers I suspect