FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)

[Eric Loves Rey]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I said earlier, Disney should have released this next wednesday. Definitely would have had huge 5 days + preview run. Plus school is also off and so previews would have been stronger.

There's a lot more to this movie than just the opening. By opening it the week before Thanksgiving, schools are out after Sunday, meaning there's going to be good holds in the coming days, and three weeks all to itself before Jumanji. More promo dedicated to TROS helps Disney too.

 

If they opened it on Wednesday, with Thanksgiving being super late, not only do they get a 50% drop on weekend two, but also likely another sizable drop with another major family film, and then another one once Star Wars hits the scene. And sure, now Jumanji is tracking to hit ~45M, but when Disney decided to move it up a week a year ago, when the last film did over 400M...yeah, it kind of makes sense why Disney would do this. Sure, your opening might not be as huge, but you're compensating with better legs with the Thanksgiving holiday.

[TalismanRing]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Last Christmas losing 1,000+ locations before December even starts. 
 

That’s honestly what they get. I don’t know what they were thinking opening a Christmas film so early. It’ll be making pennies by Christmas.

 

Horrendous drop theatre wise for Doctor Sleep too, yikes. Charlie’s Angels will fall off the earth next weekend. 

They thought it would open higher and hold better.  Other Christmas films have done well in the same spot.

[danhtruong5]

How can we know if this movie will have good legs (>3.5x) or not? Based on RT Audience score???

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

This is the problem I saw Thursday night and the problem I am seeing tonight and tomorrow too. It's something I brought up in the tracking thread too. I just didn't feel like theater chains treated this like a $100M+ opener. Its showtime account, at least locally, did not see that much of a significant increase as release date got closer. So showtimes have sold out but new showtimes were not added (again locally). What I always questioned is where the demand for the movie is going to go? Obviously there is demand for the film. It remains to be seen if people couldn't get seats for this Saturday, would they just decide to go next Saturday instead for example thus driving up sales for the second weekend. 

 

*This is all an analysis locally from the 4 theaters that I tracked for the film. 

I dont think its short of shows tomorrow. It has ginormous 14K shows between 2 MTC I am tracking. Only issues being it does not have all the PLF and while Dolby is super strong, Imax is not so much. Also it does not play well too late.

[charlie Jatinder]

Seeing it 34mn True Friday. 

Damn those PS. Its Infinity War level pre-sales loaded.

[JB33]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

Seeing it 34mn True Friday. 

Damn those PS. Its Infinity War level pre-sales loaded.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

Seeing it 34mn True Friday. 

Damn those PS. Its Infinity War level pre-sales loaded.

I was about to put in 35m as well. Its run rate is just not there to go higher. But thanks for the update.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Seeing it 34mn True Friday. 

Damn those PS. Its Infinity War level pre-sales loaded.

Again thats a female skewing flick on top of holiday build up. Yall would have died I think if we had had the same data back when Twilight was around. 

Btw, not picking at anyone, its just an aspect that nobody seemed to prerelease give proper context toward. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by narniadis

[john2000]

the meltdowns are coming, the meltdowns are coming

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Seeing it 34mn True Friday. 

Damn those PS. Its Infinity War level pre-sales loaded.

What was IW's PSm for Sat

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

the meltdowns are coming, the meltdowns are coming

#timetopeaceoutifso 😂😂🤦‍♂️

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was about to put in 35m as well. Its run rate is just not there to go higher. But thanks for the update.

so our range seem to be with previews, 42-44, good enough, lets see if that sticks, 

[charlie Jatinder]

Some PSm

 

TS4: 2.7x

Incredibles 2: 3.05x

The Lion King: 2.3x

Fantastic Beasts 2: 2x

 

Now today morning, me and @Thanos Legion were discussing, that FB2 is not gonna be a comp for F2 and as it happens;

 

F2 PSm is 1.9x 

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Again thats a female skewing flick on top of holiday build up. Yall would have died I think if we had had the same data back when Twilight was around. 

Btw, not picking at anyone, its just an aspect that nobody seemed to prerelease give proper context toward. 

It was clear yesterday. Previews were heavily frontloaded as well. Tomorrow and Sunday will be as well. Once the dust settles it will behave like a family movie. but it will have one drop which wont be pretty then settling down to a healthy run.

[Curtis1986]

9 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

How can we know if this movie will have good legs (>3.5x) or not? Based on RT Audience score???

True don't most Disney movies get high audience scores. 

[JB33]

I think we're entering a landscape where pretty much all films are "presales heavy". Yes, even family/animated films, as we've learned this year. Pre buying tickets is just how most people do it now. It's not a niche custom anymore.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

What was IW's PSm for Sat

I am quite sure IW PS for saturday wouldn't have been so much higher than friday or thursday. This is at Cray level PS for Opening saturday.

 

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I think we're entering a landscape where pretty much all films are "presales heavy". Yes, even family/animated films, as we've learned this year. Pre buying tickets is just how most people do it now. It's not a niche custom anymore.

Plus with subscription and membership booking fees goes away as well. On top of that reserving the best seats is a major incentive for families who are the core audience for this movie.

Edited November 23, 2019 by keysersoze123

[xiazhi]

This is TS4 friday all over again

[john2000]

Just now, JB33 said:

I think we're entering a landscape where pretty much all films are "presales heavy". Yes, even family/animated films, as we've learned this year. Pre buying tickets is just how most people do it now. It's not a niche custom anymore.

people still dont get it, after we had the lion king, toy story 4, spiderman 2, etc 

 

 

ps watch people on sunday talking like a ww opening in 350-400 is dissapointing

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I am quite sure IW PS for saturday wouldn't have been so much higher than friday or thursday. This is at Cray level PS for Opening saturday.

Yeah true. I don't know really what to expect. The run so far has been very strange but it's nice to go into a Saturday with real uncertainty for once. Usually after OD numbers it's pretty predictable.