THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[water]

This has Justice league vibes... I think people will be surprised by just how low it can go. Justice league low end tracking was like 125 and it did 95. Solo tracking was like 130-170 and it did 84 or 100 4 day or whatever. Tros low end tracking has quickly plummeted to 160 and that's still from an optimist who thinks it can do 181 or whatever Shawn put when that's practically the ceiling at this point. Imo the actual FLOOR is solo 84 just in terms of we know that's how low a star wars movie can go, but obviously it'll do better than that (right? 👀)

 

155 rogue one would be hard at this point considering the difference in context, like rogue one had positive reception from critics and audience and was coming off of tfa which was the biggest movie ever and also had double good reception. Star Wars was at the top of the world.

 

Tlj was coming off of both of those but still dropped from tfa, which is understandable (although endgame shows that you can increase from 250m ow by ONE HUNDRED MILLION) but then it also had much worse legs. I don't think it's fair to expect it to do 900m Dom again but actually we now know a drop in ow wasn't a given. If catching fire can increase from thg, if each lotr movie can increase, etc, tlj could have dropped much less if reception was the same as tfa or better (considering tfa had plenty of room to improve and everyone who liked it knew that!). That's all to say that yes it's pretty crazy people didn't acknowledge that 800m ww drop was a terrible performance (obviously relative, not saying 1.3b is small) and again, with hindsight, that ow actually should have increased and led to a closer Dom finish.

 

Tros is coming off of THAT plus solo the widely publicized production nightmare and widely publicized unprecedented box office failure, and it's coming off of tlj the walking controversy which has actually only gotten worse. I find it hilarious that both tlj fans and tlj haters think the movie was catering to the other side, that's how you know that something is very wrong with this Frankenstein of a movie. So if tlj was the sequel to something everyone loved, and half of people hated it, where does that leave the sequel to tlj which it seems like both halves hate?

 

So my question is why would it do rogue one numbers? Where is that 155m gonna come from with a movie that sounds like it has almost nothing going for it (the only good thing I've consistently heard is that the action isn't bad in a vacuum). Maybe I'm being biased by schadenfreude right now because of how much tlj and tros (which I don't plan to see) hurt me as a big fan of Finn and Rey in tfa, but I just don't see how it would reach rogue one ow is at this point.

 

Meanwhile it will definitely do less than Dom overseas so I don't see how anyone considers 1b a possibility anymore. Where is 500m os gonna come from when big 5 Europe are going to top out at like 300m based on the last few days, china will be 20m TOTAL.

 

Again maybe I'm having too much fun imagining how lowwwww can it gooooo but... 1b frankly is more likely to be the ceiling than the floor imo

Edited December 20, 2019 by water

[Napoleon]

88% audience score, excellent reception from audiences, hopefully word of mouth can reverse some of the damage of the previous movie.

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

I'm sure people more well-versed in the Chinese box office can answer this for me, but I believe RT's verified score is similar to Maoyan, where scores are often high, but there's still certain marks that can predict WOM. In both cases, 90%+/9.0+ is great to excellent, high 80s is good, mid-to-low 80s is okay, anything below that is concerning, no?

I think it's true that this is roughly how verified RT will work, but I don't pay enough attention to it/it's still new enough that I don't know exactly where the breakpoints are. 

 

For Maoyan you really want like 9.2+ to be excellent, 8.8-9.1 is good, 8.4 to 8.7 or so is okay, 8-8.3 is bad, and below 8 is putrid. Roughly. In my personal understanding. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[DeeCee]

Moderation

 

Reminder.

 

Regards

BOT Staff

[Madhuvan]

3 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

I'm sure people more well-versed in the Chinese box office can answer this for me, but I believe RT's verified score is similar to Maoyan, where scores are often high, but there's still certain marks that can predict WOM. In both cases, 90%+/9.0+ is great to excellent, high 80s is good, mid-to-low 80s is okay, anything below that is concerning, no?

In china 

9.4+ excellent 

9.2+ very good

9.0+ good

8.7+ Average 

8.3+ below average but not bad

8.0+ bad

7.6+very bad

Other than that various degree of terrible. 

[Joyous Legion]

So far I've seen the audience RT be: 
88%, 25 reviews

88%, 42 reviews

88%, 342 reviews  

88%, 1665 reviews   

 

Now, obviously, that is statistically possible. But it's unlikely enough that I start to wonder if RT has some kind of glitch atm where the % isn't updating.

[AnguishedWalrus]

5 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

I'm sure people more well-versed in the Chinese box office can answer this for me, but I believe RT's verified score is similar to Maoyan, where scores are often high, but there's still certain marks that can predict WOM. In both cases, 90%+/9.0+ is great to excellent, high 80s is good, mid-to-low 80s is okay, anything below that is concerning, no?

Yes, that's exactly what the value of RT's audience score could be.

 

The difference right now seems to be that we don't know what RT's score thresholds are. Is Star Wars' 88% okay? How about Cats (current) 65%? Is Frozen/Knives Out's score (92%) a better threshold?

 

I'd assume we'd need more than half a year-ish of scores to really know the thresholds though.

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

So far I've seen the audience RT be: 
88%, 25 reviews

88%, 42 reviews

88%, 342 reviews  

88%, 1665 reviews   

 

Now, obviously, that is statistically possible. But it's unlikely enough that I start to wonder if RT has some kind of glitch atm where the % isn't updating.

It was briefly at 89% with ~600 ratings

[Snark88]

I just came from my viewing at the IMAX. There was about 500 people in the theater, with TONS of enthusiasm and clapping leading up to the beginning of the movie. People were cheering when the title crawl started.

 

When the film ended, there was very few scattered claps heard in the theater from maybe a dozen people or so. The rest were silent. In fact all the big "Wow!" moments in the film were met with silence. It was pretty awkward and telling. I really don't know what kind of legs this film is gonna have.

Edited December 20, 2019 by Snark88

[Cappoedameron]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

So far I've seen the audience RT be: 
88%, 25 reviews

88%, 42 reviews

88%, 342 reviews  

88%, 1665 reviews   

 

Now, obviously, that is statistically possible. But it's unlikely enough that I start to wonder if RT has some kind of glitch atm where the % isn't updating.

It's at 73% in total audience.

[water]

Just now, YourCake said:

 

You should watch TROS if you're a Finn fan. Finn is heavily featured in TROS, and so do Poe and Rey. Kylo is just a supporting character even though the critics are praising Adam Driver.

I've read what happens in the movie and personally would physically not be able to sit through it without harm to my mental and physical health. I'm really not joking.

[XXR & Friends]

Just got out 30 minutes ago. 

I'm so disappointed in this film. 

4.5/10

[Mekanos]

I might see this later but as someone who has liked all the Disney SW movies I just feel deflated and fatigued from the franchise and the discourse surrounding it. There are some things I know I definitely 100% will not like no matter how they're executed, like shark-jumpingly bad, so I might skip. I'm just here for the box office drama.

[Royce]

The first half was a HUGE mess I agree with all the criticisms in that regard

But then I LOVED the second half especially the third act I loved that

 

It's not perfect but it's not as bad as people are saying, you'd think it was the worst movie to ever be released or something

Overall I was satisfied and I can honestly say that I like the sequel trilogy and I'm glad it exists as the introduction of Star Wars for this generation

[Yandereprime101189]

Well, I had a blast, especially when the audience went crazy during a certain moment in the finale

[PKMLover]

So far, RT for SW9: 56% critics and 88% varified audience, and these numbers are similar to The Lion King remake (2019) which managed to pull 2.85x legs after a $191M OW...

Edited December 20, 2019 by PKMLover

[IceFire9yt]

42 minutes ago, YourCake said:

 

You should watch TROS if you're a Finn fan. Finn is heavily featured in TROS, and so do Poe and Rey. Kylo is just a supporting character even though the critics are praising Adam Driver.

This is definitely encouraging to me- my #1 complaint with TLJ was how it sidelined Finn.

[Yandereprime101189]

If Star Wars pulls Lion King numbers that's perfectly fine. It gives Disney another billion and give the net another reason to bemoan that Disney is too powerful.

 

The Force Awakens was a major once in a lifetime reboot event (with Jurassic World earlier in 2015 being the second reboot event). The sequels were always going to drop regardless. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[elcaballero]

Been on a Blue Monday kick, and found this to be well edited. Excited to see another Star Wars film tomorrow.

 

[Porthos]

I HAVE THE WORST FUCKING LUCK AT PREMIERES!!!!!!!!       

 

Pause.

 

Okay what I am about to say is partially my fault for being stubborn and angry and generally just pissed off.  Beware the Dark Side and all that.

 

Long time posters might remember my escapade I had with the Fan Event for Rogue One.  There was a torrential downpour in Sacramento that night and it cause the local IMAX theater to lose power during the film.  TWICE.

 

That didn't happen this time.  No, this time it was pure theater incompetence.

 

I got reserved seating for a 5pm showing.  I live about five, eight, minutes away from the theater.  I noted that there were only two SW showings going on right then.  About 275 people combined in both showings.  I figured it'd be a little busy, but it wouldn't be nearly the crunch that would start with the 6pm showings.

 

So I roll in with elderly father (it's a tradition that we go see SW films together on opening night) about 15 minutes before 5pm.  Should be plenty of time, right?  Hell, I might miss one or two trailers if they're really busy, but no big deal.  Never had a problem with long waits there even for busy movies, so I know the approximate time I need to be there early.  I should have had plenty of time.

 

The first warning sign I got was the line out the door when we pulled up.

 

Now, remember, reserved seating.  Scan your ticket and go.  It was like I stepped out of a time machine and back into the 00's or 90s.

 

Took us about 10 minutes just to get into the theater.  I think they were having trouble handing out the bennies for the Fan Event.    Then I noticed four very very long lines at the concession stand.  

 

And here is where I made my mistake.  I should have just swallowed my pride and said fuck it and gone in with nothing.  But, here's the thing.  I was going to get two large popcorns free as part of the fan event.  In retrospect I see this is the real source of the problem as everyone was getting the most popcorn they could get and the staff was overwhelmed.

 

Still, I looked at the line and said to myself, I should be able to make it.  I first made sure my pops was in his seat and comfortable, then went back to the line.

 

25 minutes later, I get to near the front of the line.

 

...

 

JUST AS THEY RUN OUT OF POPCORN 

WHO THE FLYING FUCK RUNS OUT OF POPCORN AT A THEATER!!!! ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'VE GOT A PROMO GOING!!!!

 

REALLY NOW!!!

 

*pause*

 

Now, I know.  I should have bolted about ten minutes or so while I was in line. Well, what can I say, pride fucked with me.

 

Never let pride fuck with you, folks.  That's the lesson of the night.