THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

even if deadline Over-indexed that much it's not gonna drop below 195Mish. 

 

which is way better than what the reactions on reddit and the tracking thread had me adjust my expectations to. (Rogue One levels).

You overestimate deadline, imo. This is obvious good news but it doesn’t totally rule out like, 40*4.5=180. Just makes it less likely.    
 

 

[Porthos]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Looks like $200M is back on the menu:

 

 

BUCKLE UP, FOLKS.  THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED BOT ROLLER-COASTER OF EMOTIONS HAS OFFICIALLY TAKEN OFF!!!!   

(highs and lows are gonna be epic!)

[Zakiyyah6]

This weekend is going to be very interesting.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I mean we've witnessed Deadline's "estimates" before but I can't imagine previews being worse than $40M now. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

You overestimate deadline, imo. This is obvious good news but it doesn’t totally rule out like, 40*4.5=180. Just makes it less likely.    

Dude, I'm not even penciling in 40m yet.  This IS Deadline we're talking about.  Especially when it comes to previews.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic.  But I'll wait to see if this is a case of:

 

 

before I even allow myself to think about 200m.  

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I mean we've witnessed Deadline's "estimates" before but I can't imagine previews being worse than $40M now. 

Its not that early. Sometimes they used get early estimates at 7PM PST which is ridiculous. but it can go down for sure.

[Porthos]

Just now, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I mean we've witnessed Deadline's "estimates" before but I can't imagine previews being worse than $40M now. 

 

Me cynical about Deadline's sources?

 

[FlashMaster659]

Those early Thursday numbers are a big surprise for sure if they hold. Just got back from the movie and my audience seemed to enjoy it well enough. I enjoyed myself but I'd say it's more middle-tier Star Wars.

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm not going to diss Deadline's numbers. If that's what they are seeing then that's what they are seeing. We'll see what the final numbers are like tomorrow. For now I still maintain that I will be shocked if it opens with 200+mil. That doesn't mean a hill of beans though because I have been wrong before. I predicted 180mil on Twitter by the way. Didn't play the Derby though.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

Halfway through it. It kills what TLJ was leading us to but I am liking it so far. 

Alright. WTF. WTF. WTF. 

[RealLyre]

10 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

You overestimate deadline, imo. This is obvious good news but it doesn’t totally rule out like, 40*4.5=180. Just makes it less likely.    
 

 

on the bright side if it does something like 47 or 48M (deadline's high-end) and holds well over the weekend it could challenge A1 and JW numbers and come very close to TLJ.

Edited December 20, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

This would be rather surprising, but tracking isn’t an exact science. I hope this won’t make people disappointed with 41 or something in the morning.

it is considering how big our sample size is. But I have not tracked movies at this level before since I started with Joker. That makes it hard to estimate. you can estimate a 40m previews from movies that has not even hit half that number. If I had tracked Endgame it would have give some perspective. But @Menor did have data for Endgame/TLK and so he was in the best place to estimate though TLK is not a good comparison being a family flick.

 

 

Now with SW9 numbers, I am confident about predicting previews relatively. Also the sources we have helps on relative basis. Once I have OD numbers its easy to estimate Day 2 and beyond with just relative numbers.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I enjoyed myself but I'd say it's more middle-tier Star Wars.

Pretty much what I said in the thread a couple pages back and in the TROS one.  Solid B-tier.

 

Still...  

 

 

Not the best cake I've ever had and certainly not the worst.  And even at it's worst... It's still fucking cake! 👍

 

(still not sure where it lands in my B-tier, but it was definitely enjoyable)

 

 

[Cap]

6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Alright. WTF. WTF. WTF. 

YUP.  Same.

 

 

*

 

ALSO,

 

For someone that doesn't really like Star Wars, I have SO MANY FEELINGS about Star Wars right now.

[dakus]

54 minutes ago, dakus said:

Deadline where are you hiding your preview numbers? Half the fun of big premiere Fridays is trashing Deadlines shitty numbers while also simultaneously melting down over those very numbers 

LMAO Deadline must’ve been listening to me. They found a way to make us both question their numbers AND go in (positive) meltdown mode

[Johnny Tran]

From Star Wars being dead and buried to Star Wars reigning supreme all in about 12 hours  

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it is considering how big our sample size is. But I have not tracked movies at this level before since I started with Joker. That makes it hard to estimate. you can estimate a 40m previews from movies that has not even hit half that number. If I had tracked Endgame it would have give some perspective. But @Menor did have data for Endgame/TLK and so he was in the best place to estimate though TLK is not a good comparison being a family flick.

 

 

Now with SW9 numbers, I am confident about predicting previews relatively. Also the sources we have helps on relative basis. Once I have OD numbers its easy to estimate Day 2 and beyond with just relative numbers.

If Deadline's number is correct then it must have gotten some kind of ridiculous numbers at small chains. MTC numbers were pointing to high 30s.

[grey ghost]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I don't do rankings.   Comparison is the thief of joy and all that.  I do do tiers though. I think I put it in the same tier as RotS, TFA, and ESB.

 

Mind, I don't love ESB all that much compared to many, so don't consider that a compliment.

 

My "A tier" would be something like SW, RotJ, R1, TLJ.  My "C tier" would be something like TPM, AotC.  Still not sure where to put Solo, really.  Don't want to invent a tier so I'll stuff it at the bottom of the B one.

 

So, currently:

 

A-tier (release order so don't read anything into it)

SW

RotJ

R1

TLJ

 

B-tier (again, release order)

ESB

RotS

TFA

Solo

TRoS (provisional)

 

C-Tier (release order)

TPM

AotC

 

===

 

Now, I do agree that from a craftsmanship standpoint ESB is pretty great.  If I'm being completely honest with myself it's at the very very top of my personal B-Tier.  But I just can't put it in the A-tier.  Those are reserved for the near-perfect SW films for me.

 

Likewise, TLJ really is at the bottom of my A-tier.  I might one day knock it down to the top of the B-tier, but damn was there some great stuff there.

 

So, those are my tiers.  Best you'll get out of me, I'm afraid.

 

Very odd and refreshing ranki-err I mean tier list.

 

Finally someone else puts Rogue One and RotJ near the top. Both movies hold a special place in my heart.

 

I look forward to seeing where I put TROS. Thanks for indulging me.

[FTF]

50 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-opening-weekend-box-office-cats-bombshell-1202814594/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

$44M-$48M 

 

so all the panicking was for nothing. another 200M+ SW opener lmao 

 

 

Don't...don't tease me like this deadline.  Even if they're off by $5m, a $39-43m preview # is excellent at this point. 

[grey ghost]

Box Office Nerds: "Might not hit 150 OW"

 

TROS: "You underestimate my power"