Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - The Grudge $1.8M w/ an F Cinemascore LMAO

[Eric Duncan]

8 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Why though it’s clearly still the biggest topic of discussion what else would we talk about. How terrible dumped in January is doing terribly like every year. The other is formally the world’s biggest franchise in a state of free fall 

Did I say you should not talk about Star Wars? You can talk about the movie's performance.

 

What I'm saying is that discussing how Star Wars was ruined, and complaining about JJ, KK, Rian, Iger, or whoever has gone on long enough. It already was toxic enough weeks ago, but that was because it just came out and there was merit to discuss this. But now, it's old news, nobody's going to change their minds, and it was going to lead to a toxic discussion that would last multiple pages. I want this place to be a fun environment to talk about box office, and talking about how much people hate JJ or The Last Jedi was not going to help.

 

Besides, what else can you really add to this blame game three weeks later? Is there anything else that needs to be talked about at this point?

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 is a not great number. Thinking 31-33 this weekend for RoS. Sunday drop should be steep across the board with just about everyone returning to work/school stateside.

[OffTheHizzle]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I haven’t even seen it. But I’m still not the one chiming in saying it’s trash. 
 

If you’re going to comment on the quality of a film and act like it’s a fact, make sure it’s a film you’ve actually seen. 

When a film has 19% critic and 19% audience ratings on RT, F Cinemascore, 37 Metascore, and 4.3 on IMDB, I have no intention of actually paying to see it.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

There are already 3 other threads to discuss the future of Star Wars.

[Curtis1986]

Well at least next week we have Just Mercy and 1917.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Will Jumanji's weekend gross pass RoS next weekend or the weekend after?

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

Well at least next week we have Just Mercy and 1917.

And KStew's underwater Ellen Ripley flick.

[a2k]

Quote

Best case scenario is a domestic finish between $545 million and $565 million. The worst case scenario is around $515 million, but that will depend on how it holds up over the next few weeks. Competition is comparatively light, with Jumanji: The Next Level earning less than Welcome to the Jungle and Cats proving to be no Greatest Showman. If anything, the biggest threat to Star Wars IX is Frozen II, which is yet more evidence that Disney should have pushed the Star Wars finale to 2020. A $515-$565 million domestic and $1 billion-plus worldwide gross for Star Wars IX would have meant a lot more for Disney in 2020 than it does in 2019.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/01/04/box-office-star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-plummets-58-on-friday/#431305b2233a

 

515 is best-case : 33 weekend, 450 cume and 2x 33 gives 516.

As Hobbit added 1.86x it's FSS about 1.7x cannot be ruled out for TROS.

32 weekend, 449 cume and 1.7x 32 gives 503+.

Only "good" news is that 500 seems safe cause at mid-high 490s a push should happen.

 

 

[misafeco]

Frozen 2  vs. Frozen Mon-Fri weekdays this week

	F2	F1	%
Mon	4,422	7,898	56,0%
Tue	4,04	7,076	57,1%
Wed	5,029	8,718	57,7%
Thu	3,411	5,305	64,3%
Fri	3,927	6,752	58,2%

 

11M weekend (and almost 450M total after Sunday) looks feasible if this estimate doesn't drop.

If F2 follows F1's Sat incr. (+19%) & Sun drop (-40.5%), it would make 4.67M Sat, 2.78 Sun (11.38 WE).

 

It's hard to predict how the next couple of weeks will play out. F1 made another 104M after this WE, for F2 30-40M would be a reasonable scenario. I wouldn't say 500M is dead, but highly unlikely at this point.

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

A $515-$565 million domestic and $1 billion-plus worldwide gross for Star Wars IX would have meant a lot more for Disney in 2020 than it does in 2019.

Also the movie would likely have been better (less messy) had Disney not rushed it for their big 2019 even after changing director.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, a2k said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/01/04/box-office-star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-plummets-58-on-friday/#431305b2233a

 

515 is best-case : 33 weekend, 450 cume and 2x 33 gives 516.

As Hobbit added 1.86x it's FSS about 1.7x cannot be ruled out for TROS.

32 weekend, 449 cume and 1.7x 32 gives 503+.

Only "good" news is that 500 seems safe cause at mid-high 490s a push should happen.

 

 

When Forbes is doing their best to mimic Deadline pro-Disney reporting...how the female-skewing Frozen 2 is more of a threat to TROS than the male-skewing and teen-young adult skewing Jumanji movie...how the #2 movie (every day since TROS open) with the enormous leg kick is less of a threat than the #5 movie with an enormous leg kick...

 

Only paid internet writers could make this stuff up...

Edited January 4, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[Mr Impossible]

21 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Will Jumanji's weekend gross pass RoS next weekend or the weekend after?

Next weekend I think. 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

And KStew's underwater Ellen Ripley flick.

Which is gonna flop epically. It's been sitting on the shelf even longer than New Mutants has.

[VanillaSkies]

I'm very happy to see Jojo Rabbit continue to chug along. 

It's a great film. It will get more exposure from the Golden Globes this Sunday, and if it gets some key Oscar nominations, could expand nicely further this month. I'd really love to see a 30m+ total for it. 

BTW, Oscar nomination are announced January 13th, leading into the 4 day MLK weekend. 

Expect some nominated films to benefit nicely that weekend. 

 

Very impressed with 1917 as well. 
It increased from last Friday, despite staying in the same number of theatres. I would say that steller word of mouth is working in it's favor. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the opening climbed above 30 million next weekend. 

Knives Out has had an incredible run, and might even be one of those films to benefit from the Oscars. If that is the case, we can't rule out a gross as high as 175m+. Even without major noms however, it's heading above 150m which is incredible, and will also receive a lot of attention at the Golden Globes this Sunday. 

Overall, a pretty good weekend, especially for mid-sized films.

[Valonqar]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Which is gonna flop epically. It's been sitting on the shelf even longer than New Mutants has.

[a2k]

TROS guess for upcoming week

 

Fri	3 Jan 20	11.0	19.6%	428.1
Sat	4 Jan 20	13.9	26.4%	442.0
Sun	5 Jan 20	8.1	-41.7%	450.1	33.0
Mon	6 Jan 20	2.7	-66.7%	452.8
Tue	7 Jan 20	3.8	40.7%	456.6
Wed	8 Jan 20	2.2	-42.1%	458.8
Thu	9 Jan 20	2.0	-9.1%	460.8
Fri	10 Jan 20	3.5	75.0%	464.3
Sat	11 Jan 20	6.8	94.3%	471.1
Sun	12 Jan 20	4.2	-38.2%	475.3	14.5 ; -56%

 

Haven't been pessimistic. Theater loss could affect it adversely.

Hobbit2 added 2x Jan 10-12 weekend which would give TROS

475.3 + 14.5*2 = 504.3

[LegendaryBen]

Star Wars had a rough drop as expected. $500m will not be easy to get to, but I still think Disney can push it. Even if it does $1 billion WW, I know Disney expected a lot more especially for a finale.

 

Jumanji's chances at $300m aren't impossible. Of course, it will be tough to beat its predecessor but it still has already beaten the 1995 Jumanji in terms of ticket sales. It will still make tons of money for the studio.

 

Little Women (which barely has any nominations at the Golden Globes) held well enough to a point where it will reach $100m. OS is looking good for it, which means another financial success for the studio and Greta Grewig. 

 

The 2020 Version of The Grudge will open even worse than Rings and it will be lucky to pass a 2x multiplier thanks to its F CinemaScore. Clearly, audiences still have a grudge against The Grudge.

 

Frozen II would need to hold very well to get to $500m. Too bad its drop was a little higher than all the other holdovers but its still done well for Disney and already made tons of money.

 

Spies in Disguise held well and may reach $70m. If it wasn't for its high $100m budget, it would be a modest hit for Fox/Disney. It needs a good overseas run to avoid a loss. 

 

Knives Out had a Greatest Showman-type drop. If it were to hold like that throughout its whole run and it was the frontrunner for best picture, $200m would be on the table. However, TGS had its soundtrack going for it. Still, even if KO gets shut out by the GG and Oscars, its still on the way to $150-160m+ and will be the highest grosser for an original movie since Crazy Rich Asians. In fact, it will be the highest grosser for a movie to never reach #1 since TGS (just mentioned about that, haha). 

 

Even with the 300 theaters added, Uncut Gems held better than expected considering its disappointing C+ CinemaScore. Even if it only gets a 3x multiplier from now on, passing $50m is locked at this point. If it gets enough Oscar buzz, $60m isn't impossible. Still, it's a lock to beat Lady Bird at this point.

 

Cats will miss $30m (won't even make it to $100m globally just like last year's First Man missed) and will lose more than 2,000 theaters next weekend. Bombshell will end up as a box office disappointment unless it can garner significant award buzz. However, at least it won't lose too much money compared to the former.

Edited January 4, 2020 by LegendaryBen

[grim22]

From Deadline

 

Some believe that Skywalker can make it to $600M still, but could be shorter than that.

 

🤔

[Nova]

Finally watching Marriage Story. Hopefully this will be the superior Adam Driver movie than the one currently in theaters 

[#ED]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

From Deadline

 

 

 

 

🤔

 

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