Lightyear | 6/17/22 | Disney/Pixar | PUPPY INTERVIEW FRIDAY SO NO REASON TO SEE MOVIE NOW. FLOP INCOMING

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

So looks like Lightyear's probably gonna stay in the low 80s%/high 6s average rating area. Given it's a franchise and the elevated Pixar expectations almost certainly going to have legs under 3x. Just hoping it does well enough to not discourage an Elemental theatrical release.

I think if it does sub 3x which I doubt it’ll be because it skews more older, not WOM.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

 

You do realize it's very simple to to talk to small children about LGBT people right? 

 

"Mommy/Daddy why are those two men/women kissing"

"Well insert child's name, you know how me and your mommy/daddy like to kiss and it grosses you out. We just show how much we love each other that way. They do the same thing because they love one another and they deserve the same respect as me and your mommy/daddy do."

 

They don't want to talk about it because they want their child to be as ignorant as they are. 

I could not agree more.

 

[jedijake]

3 hours ago, AniNate said:

So looks like Lightyear's probably gonna stay in the low 80s%/high 6s average rating area. Given it's a franchise and the elevated Pixar expectations almost certainly going to have legs under 3x. Just hoping it does well enough to not discourage an Elemental theatrical release.

I think Lightyear is taylor made to have a 3+ multiplier. Maybe not a high or even mid 3 multiplier. Maybe even closer to an even 3.0, but I cannot see this having less than a 3.0 multiplier.

[ThomasNicole]

TS4 was a direct sequel and still got 3.6x 

 

Unless Lightyear reception among GP is bad (and honestly, RT have nothing to do with that), i think it will be around 3.5x as well 

 

Of course, unless it hits D+ on day 45

[ChipDerby]

On 6/13/2022 at 2:20 PM, ThomasNicole said:

You didn't look enough then

 

thanks for the input

[Cap]

5 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Of course, unless it hits D+ on day 45

Tbh. This is my biggest concern at this point. 

[BoxOfficeZ]

I thought it was an enjoyable film, but definitely not one of Pixar's greats. Feels like a Pixar short film with an idea that had to have it's plot stretched to fit a whole movie. Evans does a good job, but his character lacks the fun flavor from the main Toy Story movies. Peter Sohn did a fantastic job and easily steals the show. Some great visuals. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Given Strange is going to Disney+ after 45 days, I can't imagine Lightyear won't as well. Definitely hope I'm wrong... Wish they'd just switch to a 60 day model for their bigger releases.

[M37]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Given Strange is going to Disney+ after 45 days, I can't imagine Lightyear won't as well. Definitely hope I'm wrong... Wish they'd just switch to a 60 day model for their bigger releases.

Disney’s desire to kneecap the Pixar brand to pump up D+ remains mystifying to me

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Disney’s desire to kneecap the Pixar brand to pump up D+ remains mystifying to me

Sigh. It's pretty maddening for sure. I assume it's due to these being kids flicks which keep subs up for D+ knowing they'll be available for families to stream rather than having to tow kids to a theater. But, fuck 'em, give these 60 days or so... Same families can stream them through D+ eventually but why not make them wait just another 2+ weeks to do so? Doesn't make sense. It's not like they'll lose subs having a 60 day window rather than a 45 day window.

[cannastop]

Variety predicts $70 million for OW

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-lightyear-opening-weekend-1235294699/

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Variety predicts $70 million for OW

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-lightyear-opening-weekend-1235294699/

 

If you gave this to me as an over/under...I think, seeing my theater sets and sales for tonight and tomorrow, I'd go the UNDER (but not by much)...

 

I just think this is a badly timed release...which is kinda shocking to say with no animated movies around, but who knew you'd have a breakout TGM to go along with dinos taking up 65% of theater space still at least at my locals (this movie is getting the same amount of screens as TGM this weekend with the dinos keeping double)...and that folks would have an Atom deal that let them already see a movie this week...and that this wouldn't be "OMG, you have to see this right now" material...and prices suck...

[CJohn]

This was a fun fast paced space adventure. It is not some deep movie like Pixar stuff usually is but it is highly entertaining with a good voice performance by Chris Evans.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This was a fun fast paced space adventure. It is not some deep movie like Pixar stuff usually is but it is highly entertaining with a good voice performance by Chris Evans.

Will it do well in portugal or bomb?

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Will it do well in portugal or bomb?

Pre-sales are horrible for tomorrow, and tomorrow is a holiday. Top Gun about to win a 4th weekend in a row. I honestly think it will be 3rd this weekend, also below JW3.

Edited June 15, 2022 by CJohn

[Mango]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If you gave this to me as an over/under...I think, seeing my theater sets and sales for tonight and tomorrow, I'd go the UNDER (but not by much)...

 

I just think this is a badly timed release...which is kinda shocking to say with no animated movies around, but who knew you'd have a breakout TGM to go along with dinos taking up 65% of theater space still at least at my locals (this movie is getting the same amount of screens as TGM this weekend with the dinos keeping double)...and that folks would have an Atom deal that let them already see a movie this week...and that this wouldn't be "OMG, you have to see this right now" material...and prices suck...

Maybe a little pessimistic, and I see nothing wrong with people excited about the movie, but I think myself and a lot of people just view this as a really obvious cash grab. It’s pretty amazing that Toy Story 3 and 4 managed to retain so much attendance from the first two films after so many years, and be just as highly revered for the most part. This just didn’t seem to continue that legacy as much. Lightyear seems like it would have been better suited as one of the Toy Story ABC specials or maybe like an hour long Disney Plus special or something.

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, DubitySingingMicrophone said:

The worrying part is this absurd 200M budget. How is this going to make 500M WW? 

 

Also. I want your honest opinions. Let's put our business hats on because that's what Disney is. So:

 

I think it's great Disney pushing for diversity. Specifically LGBTQ+. Really do. But on the other hand...my fear is that they are alienating almost 50% (conservatives) of the population and leaving a lot of money in the table. Like, a LOT. The reality is... the LGBTQ+ audience is a minority. Vocal but minority. So... idk. Top Gun doing this kind of money... let's be honest. While yes the movie is awesome the truth is that this is a movie for everyone and it's projected to end at 600M DOM. A Top Gun movie breaking out this way. And today, more and more and more conservatives are done with Disney and don't like what it's doing in their movies. 

 

Also... there's the International problem. Lotta markets are banning Disney movies and Disney is leaving lots of money on the table. Right? China seems to just have outright banned Disney as a whole because of the ideologies it's trying to push in almost every movie (DS2, Lightyear, Thor 4, Strange World seems like will also reveal the young kid as gay. BTT said it and that they will have that interaction of the kid discovering himself and his relationship with his father relating to how the kid feels) and in general. Again... I get you're standing up and not making cuts for these countries but...is Disney just going to be satisfied with breaking even going forward? Making 4x the budget in better scenarios? End of breaking records? 

 

And Idk if I'm sounding like a homophobe but that's really not my intent. I'm speaking business only. 

 

Like why not make edits or cuts to these countries if that's the only way you're getting your movies there? Disney won't change these countries politics and culture. They just won't. Some people will whine in social media but that's fine. Just don't make public statements apologizing. It's a very small minority on Twitter as usual. 

 

It's obvious Disney and specially the MCU needs China. Like... Secret Wars will likely be the next Endgame but... without a China release? Lots middle east countries? There will be no record breaking. Are records not important anymore? If it isn't, I kinda would like to know because then it's whatever. Disney wants to push diversity and break even point is enough going forward. Ok. But if that's the case I would like to know so I would stop thinking about it. Also I saw in a Variety or Deadline article that China did ask for a edit of Lightyear but Disney didn't provide. 

 

My final opinion is... If Disney is going to keep pushing these ideologies in almost every blockbuster, whatever conservatives won't like, a loss but could be worst. Might be enough. But in the International markets I think they have to make the edits. You can't stay without China and other asian and middle east markets forever and keep getting your movies not achieving their potential. I guess. 

 

What do you guys think about this? 

 

 

 

 

Hi ImNotRacistAtAll.

 

Bye ImNotRacistAtAll.

[lorddemaxus]

Would not be surprised if most people catching the last couple WDAS and Pixar films on D+ has pretty much caused most people to just end up watching every one of these upcoming films on D+. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[Eric Lasagna]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Would not be surprised if most people catching the last couple WDAS and Pixar films on D+ has pretty much caused most people to just end up watching every one of these upcoming films on D+. 

That's what I said earlier, though apparently people considered it trolling. But yeah, if this does poorly (which is already the case overseas so far), we're probably not getting another Disney animated film in theaters outside of like Frozen 3 or Zootopia 2 or whatever. If a Toy Story movie can't reach 70M (maybe even less), what hope is there for anything else?

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

That's what I said earlier, though apparently people considered it trolling. But yeah, if this does poorly (which is already the case overseas so far), we're probably not getting another Disney animated film in theaters outside of like Frozen 3 or Zootopia 2 or whatever. If a Toy Story movie can't reach 70M (maybe even less), what hope is there for anything else?

 

Disney needs to come back to traditional 2-D-handdran animation and kick start a second Rennaissance era, make like 6 masterpieces in a row, where they dont put the movies on D+ for 200 days each and then have new material for new shitty Live-Action Remakes in like 12 years.

 

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