Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[Nikostar]

13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm pretty sure more people will want to watch the sequel (after an almost 20 year hiatus) in a franchise that's literally known for it's visual spectacle and innovative VFX work in the cinemas than at home. And Dune's pretty much being sold as a theatrical event, not a streaming release.

They may be selling as a theatrical event but many will watch it for free at home. It may be at the article event for is fan base but for the general public I don’t really think they care much.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Calling it now: Matrix 4 opens big but also drops big (maybe even bigger than The Suicide Squad).

And Sing 2 outright flops. Pets 2 came out a mere 3 years after the first one-a short gap for animation-and its revenue got melted by half. Sing 2 not only has a longer 5 year gap (which contributed to Godzilla 2 and TSS both bombing) but also a pandemic to deal with-a pandemic starring unvaccinated kids.

 

Of course, both of those movies are holifay tentpoles and there is a certain... megaevent happening right around that time that I haven't even begun to take into account.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Has it been said how incredible Don't Breathe 2's holds have been? Felt like an unnecessary sequel nobody wanted that Sony promoted at last minute. 43% this weekend! 

 

Great to see Old at 84m. Can it reach 90m?

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

In the Heights and The Suicide Squad were also sold as big theatrical events you had to see on the big screen and IMAX especially. Granted a good chunk of that promo was because of Chu and Gunn, but sadly people will go for the free, convenient one, regardless of how well it plays on the big screen.

Idk, pretty much everything related to those movies made it clear they would be on HBO Max. Every promo tweet said how the movies would be on both theaters and HBO Max. WB seems to have dropped that for this (every tweet just ends with "coming October 22"). 

 

And regarding ITH, that movie wasn't big at home either. No one viewed that as any kind of event. 

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

They may be selling as a theatrical event but many will watch it for free at home. It may be at the article event for is fan base but for the general public I don’t really think they care much.

The point of the marketing is to make the general public care about watching it in the cinemas. 

[CoolioD1]

rooting for Dune but 50/50 I'll watch it at home will have to see what the vibe is like then. Box office wise i expect the HBO Max Special 30mil opening and then a 65-70% drop.

Edited August 29, 2021 by CoolioD1

[Eric Burnett]

21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Idk, pretty much everything related to those movies made it clear they would be on HBO Max. Every promo tweet said how the movies would be on both theaters and HBO Max. WB seems to have dropped that for this (every tweet just ends with "coming October 22"). 

 

And regarding ITH, that movie wasn't big at home either. No one viewed that as any kind of event. 

Obviously it's not the same thing, but Black Widow also was sold as a theatrical event with Premier Access being pushed on the down low in a lot of promos and materials. Especially in comparison to stuff like Cruella or Jungle Cruise. Yet its OW still suffered because of this. People know this is coming to HBO Max, and it'll very likely get pimped out on the HBO Max app, on Fire Stick home pages, on PS5 home pages, etc. when it drops, making it even more known.

[baumer]

Some quick thoughts. 

 

First, I know I haven't been around much in the last 18 months.  I've had a lot of personal things going on.  I'm hoping to be more active here this fall.  I miss some of you nerds.

 

Terrific opening for Candyman.  I didn't see that coming.  Great weekend multiplier and the WOM looks to be strong.  I'm hoping to see it tonight.

 

As a Reynolds fan, it's awesome to see Free Guy doing well.  It's my favourite film of the year so far and if I'm not mistaken, along with Jungle Cruise, this will be the only original property to cross 100 mill domestic.  No sequel, no super heroes, no comic book crowd.  Fantastic to see that.

 

Now some bad news.  Vaccine passports are coming fast and furious to Canada.  BC, Quebec and now Ontario (about 27 of the 37 million people) are now vax passport provinces.  This means that about 25% of the population will not be able to go to a movie theatre.  I'm not sure how many states are going to follow suit.   But here, it's getting pretty draconian.  

 

As for other films I haven't commented on....what a terrific performance by AQP2.  That gross makes me really happy.  

Same with Black Widow, especially considering how well it did simultaneously on D+.

Suicide Squad....wow, what a disaster.

F9 still going strong during Covid.  I think it would of had a chance at 900 during non Covid times.

 

I've been reading that Shang-Chi is going to open to 60 million.  I don't see that happening.  I'll probably be wrong (my box office skills are weak at the moment) I'm thinking more like 45 three day.

 

Hope you're all well.

 

 

[Legion Again]

Oh yeah, Free Guy grabs the biggest post-pandemic 3rd weekend by over 10% 

 

1)FG 13.5M

2) AQP2 12M

3) BW 11.6M

4) F9 11.4M

5) JC 9M  

 

Will presumably have the biggest 4th, 5th, 6th etc until falling behind Croods nutty late wknds at some point.

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Oh yeah, Free Guy grabs the biggest post-pandemic 3rd weekend by over 10% 

 

1)FG 13.5M

2) AQP2 12M

3) BW 11.6M

4) F9 11.4M

5) JC 9M  

 

Will presumably have the biggest 4th, 5th, 6th etc until falling behind Croods nutty late wknds at some point.

 

 

That's pretty damn amazing considering how big the others opened.  

[Dominic Draper]

Do we know the Shang Chi budget yet?

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Dominic Draper said:

Do we know the Shang Chi budget yet?

150 or so

[cax16]

29 minutes ago, baumer said:

Some quick thoughts. 

 

First, I know I haven't been around much in the last 18 months.  I've had a lot of personal things going on.  I'm hoping to be more active here this fall.  I miss some of you nerds.

 

Terrific opening for Candyman.  I didn't see that coming.  Great weekend multiplier and the WOM looks to be strong.  I'm hoping to see it tonight.

 

As a Reynolds fan, it's awesome to see Free Guy doing well.  It's my favourite film of the year so far and if I'm not mistaken, along with Jungle Cruise, this will be the only original property to cross 100 mill domestic.  No sequel, no super heroes, no comic book crowd.  Fantastic to see that.

 

Now some bad news.  Vaccine passports are coming fast and furious to Canada.  BC, Quebec and now Ontario (about 27 of the 37 million people) are now vax passport provinces.  This means that about 25% of the population will not be able to go to a movie theatre.  I'm not sure how many states are going to follow suit.   But here, it's getting pretty draconian.  

 

As for other films I haven't commented on....what a terrific performance by AQP2.  That gross makes me really happy.  

Same with Black Widow, especially considering how well it did simultaneously on D+.

Suicide Squad....wow, what a disaster.

F9 still going strong during Covid.  I think it would of had a chance at 900 during non Covid times.

 

I've been reading that Shang-Chi is going to open to 60 million.  I don't see that happening.  I'll probably be wrong (my box office skills are weak at the moment) I'm thinking more like 45 three day.

 

Hope you're all well.

 

 

 

Nice to see you back. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by cax16

[baumer]

Just now, cax16 said:

Not sure how it’s bad news to try and protect people but it’s probably best I don’t say more cause it will derail the thread.

 

Nice to see you back. 

 

Not getting political.  Just saying strictly from a box office perspective.   

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's pretty damn amazing considering how big the others opened.  

Yep. BW and F9 were hanging at around 15-20% of their true FSS, AQP2 and JC 25-30%, and Free Guy is like “sup guys, still at more than 50%.”

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

Some quick thoughts. 

 

First, I know I haven't been around much in the last 18 months.  I've had a lot of personal things going on.  I'm hoping to be more active here this fall.  I miss some of you nerds.

 

Terrific opening for Candyman.  I didn't see that coming.  Great weekend multiplier and the WOM looks to be strong.  I'm hoping to see it tonight.

 

As a Reynolds fan, it's awesome to see Free Guy doing well.  It's my favourite film of the year so far and if I'm not mistaken, along with Jungle Cruise, this will be the only original property to cross 100 mill domestic.  No sequel, no super heroes, no comic book crowd.  Fantastic to see that.

 

Now some bad news.  Vaccine passports are coming fast and furious to Canada.  BC, Quebec and now Ontario (about 27 of the 37 million people) are now vax passport provinces.  This means that about 25% of the population will not be able to go to a movie theatre.  I'm not sure how many states are going to follow suit.   But here, it's getting pretty draconian.  

 

As for other films I haven't commented on....what a terrific performance by AQP2.  That gross makes me really happy.  

Same with Black Widow, especially considering how well it did simultaneously on D+.

Suicide Squad....wow, what a disaster.

F9 still going strong during Covid.  I think it would of had a chance at 900 during non Covid times.

 

I've been reading that Shang-Chi is going to open to 60 million.  I don't see that happening.  I'll probably be wrong (my box office skills are weak at the moment) I'm thinking more like 45 three day.

 

Hope you're all well.

 

 

 

Good to see you baumer - and I hope the personal things were positive, and if they weren't, they are behind you:)...

[baumer]

And here's a trivia question for all of you.

 

Without looking it up, what was the last film to make 200 mill domestic?

[Cmasterclay]

My theory with Matrix is that it will have so many years of hype and be such a big picture that it suffers from HBO Max but certainly gets well past the established ceiling at the same time. Dune.....yeah, like Coolio said, that's heading for the HBO Max special of 30m and then a big drop, though maybe this gets to 35 and has the highest OW for a day and date release. 

 

Top Gun 2 would do 100m OW if it opened in July 2022 with the pandemic mostly done. Movie has mega breakout potential. As it stands, November is a weird date for it and older adults still might be reluctant so it could fall below what it would do otherwise.

[baumer]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Good to see you baumer - and I hope the personal things were positive, and if they weren't, they are behind you:)...

 

Well, good to see you too.  Personal stuff is still there.  But nothing you can do about some things.  Life still moves on.  That's why I'm here. 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

I think another one you are missing in December is Nightmare Alley.  

This one is a huge question mark for me. It was originally going to star DiCaprio, who has his pick of projects, and he hasn't had a critical/box office miss since J. Edgar. OTOH, the original movie was not a hit and the source material is kind of bleak. I want to know how they're going to sell it and how the average audience will react to the story. Still, this project has attracted top-name talent, it has a similar release date to The Shape of Water (a Best Picture winner) and the plan was to take it to festivals, so they all feel like have good product on their hands...