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Eric the Extra-Terrestrial

SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

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2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well if it turns out like that it will be shit then, i doubt it will reach their own 60M 3-day if Friday is just 16M. The OW itself will be good enough i guess but way lower than pretty much everyone here expect, this is not a good time for this to happen, fingers crossed for the best.

 

It's more possible than if it was summer b/c some theaters are only open evenings on Fridays right now...so in those areas, you now have a chance to see some better Saturdays over and above a fall norm Saturday...

 

That said, if the demographics are to be believed, somehow Marvel forgot to market this to women.  Martial arts movies are a tough sell for women, but even Mortal Kombat did better on its opening Thurs/Fri...

 

"Mortal Kombat drew in a broad audience of 30% Caucasian, 29% African American, 25% Hispanic, 9% Asian and 7% Native American, with males showing up at 67% and the 18-34 demo at 43%." https://deadline.com/2021/04/mortal-kombat-demon-slayer-weekend-box-office-battle-1234742886/

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No. I was predicting it will hit 70% with better walkups(I was way off with my expectations of 20m friday as well). I looked back at BW update and at 1130AM PST(tad more than an hour before my SC update), it was at those numbers. MTC2 is way lower. @Menor can do comps with F9/BW. 

 

Deadline has sources with comscore data. Most of the evening shows are driven by PS which I can see from MTC sales. I dont think its going to be dramatically different from deadline but hope I am wrong

I posted something in the tracking thread but TL;DR from MTCs alone it appears that Deadline is lowballing but they have been more accurate than MTC tracking for Friday. So I would go with their estimate for now and hope for an overperformance. 

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7 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Given the better reception and the lack of PA, what would even cause that?

The pandemic with mainly Delta being more of a concerned but with the holiday weekend maybe things will hold better on the weekend. However, I am starting to wonder especially with the emergence of the Disney+ shows and tendency to see stuff first to avoid spoilers if the MCU is getting more frontloaded than we realized.

 

A 55m/60m+ opening isn’t bad, it’s still ahead of what insider tracking suggested and where we thinking a few months ago, it’s just kind of a downer considering the hype a few days ago and maybe we let our hopes get a bit too high but that’s the norm for box office.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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Honestly as much as people love to mock Deadline for being off-base on early Friday #s, they've been accurate this summer IIRC. F9 and Widow matched what Deadline was saying mid-day.

 

And really, I think we need to recognize that the MCU is just more insular and fan-driven now. Endgame was a good stopping point for casual Marvel fans who don't watch everything and there's no big Thanos hook to bring folks in. I also think the Disney+ shows especially are diluting the brand. They're forcing people to talk about Marvel basically every week and I think everybody but the diehard fans is starting to get tired of it. Even when they moved on to three movies, you still had a good break of two or three months where Marvel wasn't in the conversation. But now they're trying to put out four movies and five TV seasons a year and it's just so exhausting.

 

Not that it hurts Disney or Papa Feige too much, because Marvel fans have probably the most active fandom ever and will still sell tons of tickets and toys. 2022's slate is also full of big sequels that are supposed to have huge event-shattering stuff in them, so I guess they could bounce back. But I do think we're getting to a point where the series isn't the almighty top dog anymore and that fatigue may at long last be settling in. I guess all those Avatar delays were some 4-D chess shit from Jimbo.

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6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The MCU being for fans only stuff def rings true, most people I know are more hyped for Certified Lover Boy than this movie.

Call me when Shang-Chi can create a meme on the level of this (the spoiler is your warning about its contents :Venom: ):

 

Spoiler

clbcovers.jpg

 

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Most of my friends who aren't super big new release followers have thought Shang-Chi would be a flop without appeal to non-fanboys. Even today some were saying it had no buzz whatsoever; perhaps they're right :hahaha: 

 

Florida and RACISTS.

 

Name a more iconic combo

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Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Yeah I mean if these numbers are real it's bye bye to pretty much the entire fall slate except the HBO Max ones. I hate to be dramatic but that number would be fucking rancid. Not the overall weekend but the hold clearly indicates it's only fans coming out to theaters.

Agreed, i'm very reasonable and i think all my posts show that, i truly hate unnecessary doom and gloom. But IF a new character movie raved by critics / audiences with theatrical only release on a holiday manage to have the same multi of an stablished character movie available at streaming with worse reception there's simply no excuse other than Delta. To be fair i think legs will be very good tho and the OW itself won't be bad, but the pattern during OW won't be ignored by studios either.

 

Even Deadline won't have Premiere Access this time to blame everything on streaming.

 

The market to me seems stable enough to get all the movies that didn't cost +150M to make, so i'm sure most movies will be released. But for blockbusters such a bad multi for a movie so beloved will send a bad signal and other than NTTD yeah i can see studios panicking and pushing the 4 remaining big budget movies from 2021 considering most of them are Sony movies.

 

I'm very worried but meltdown won't solve the problem so i'm finishing this worrying posts until the numbers is out, but this early article and tracking numbers are concerning.

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