SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Missed that, thought your comps were at around 10. Sorry bud!

Well, they were, so you are forgiven  

[OncomingStorm93]

Gloom-and-Doomers have been waiting over a year and a half for something new blockbuster franchise they can gloom-and-doom about.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It did???

 

The opening is going to be great and a nice booster for the box office. 

But it has no competition, piracy or at-home option. It has great reviews. It also didn’t have repeated delays. How has Shang-Chi had an uphill battle compared to any other films this summer? 

 

It's had the best preview number, by far, of any film released during the Delta Surge (BW was released literally just before the Delta surge started in the US). 

 

Combine with Ida wrecking havoc and I think this is an absolutely smashing success.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

You do amazing work so I won't argue with you or doompost, especially when we are talking about such a small, statistically insignificant difference, but outside Porthos and Inception it was implied to be over 9 by all the others. It's only a matter of a few hundred thousand, so it doesn't matter and probably comes out in the wash with the Ida stuff, so who cares and let's see how today goes. Studios are going to make their decisions independent at this point anyway, I'm convinced.

Porthos and Inception are two of our regular trackers though so you cannot just exclude their predictions. I was definitely too high but I would say the tracking thread overall was right on. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Porthos and Inception are two of our regular trackers though so you cannot just exclude their predictions. 

 

Don't forget the indefatigable @Eric and the Ten Rings who had something like 8.3m or thereabouts, if memory serves correctly.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Porthos

[MrPink]

Not to dunk, but literally yesterday we entertained a discussion about 6.5m, so it could have been much worse going by that.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's had the best preview number, by far, of any film released during the Delta Surge (BW was released literally just before the Delta surge started in the US). 

 

Combine with Ida wrecking havoc and I think this is an absolutely smashing success.

 

I said in the post you quoted that it’s a success and big boost for the box office.
 

I just disagreed with Shang-Chi having an “uphill battle” compared to the rest of the films this year. It actually has more going for it, than against it, that not a lot of other films this year have had. 

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

After the Scarlett lawsuit, I doubt they'll be doing hybrid PA with anymore live-action movies. Animated ones like Encanto, yeah sure I guess, animated movies are the ones that have been the easiest to change their release plans throughout the pandemic it seems (most likely because they don't have the same kinds of contracts that would need to be rearranged).

Makes sense, I’m just stating that had PA been an option this weekend Disney would of got my money. As it stands now I’m hopeful when the vaccine passport is introduced in Ontario on September 22nd that case counts are better and I feel comfortable going to a theatre but I’m not 100% and if that’s the case then I’ll just watch it free on Disney+.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Don't forget the indefatigable @Eric and the Ten Rings who had something like 8.3m or thereabouts, if memory serves correctly.

You all did great work. I was more broad in my statement because I didn't want to come off like I was picking on the big three MTC trackers, which is what led people to expect 9. They all do amazing work and I am grateful for them, but those are the ones that overshot it a bit, so it's just something to account for on Friday/the weekend. Not their fault, just overindexed.

[cax16]

6 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

 

Disney execs are probably looking at two variables here.

 

1) Do you want to piss off Feige to the point where he might walk like he almost did in 2015 due to not seeing eye to eye with Perlmutter? Feige is the biggest and hottest name in Hollywood. Disney stock would take a hit if he walks away without a transition and a successor. Marvel movies would likely suffer without his guidance as well. We have to remember Feige is big on the theatrical experience, supposedly wanted Black Widow to be theatrical only, and supposedly was pissed at his bosses because of the ScarJo situation.

 

2) How many people will go to the high seas if they do Option A (theatrical only) vs how many people will go to the high seas if they do Option B (hybrid release)? What's the opportunity cost and the money that each option can cost them and bring them. Option B allows for 4K pristine copies to be available on the web the day of release. A lot of people, including all of China, will be watching a perfect copy of the product for free. If they can't get release dates in China then it may also affect their decisions.

 

Not trying to argue, but looking at it from a business standpoint those are the two outstanding points that Chapek, Bergman, and Kareem Daniel need to look at.

We’re not arguing, it’s all just opinions and you make good points. I’m only speaking from my own perspective. If it doesn’t make sense for Disney to do PA then they shouldn’t do.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, MrPink said:

100 likes and I unleash CJohn's private pics to the world.

clearly you guys failing to achieve 100 likes led to this. rectify that before Friday numbers.

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Cmasterclay]

Look, to be clear, 8.8m is great considering I had it at 40m weekend a month ago and as low as 6.5 at one point yesterday. But I think anything from 55-75 leaves us in a murky place where studios still make rash decisions to delay or PA. Sue me, but I think a shocking 35m OD and 90m weekend probably would have given enough confidence to freeze the schedule, yes. So of course I was rooting for that surprise.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

You all did great work. I was more broad in my statement because I didn't want to come off like I was picking on the big three MTC trackers, which is what led people to expect 9. They all do amazing work and I am grateful for them, but those are the ones that overshot it a bit, so it's just something to account for on Friday/the weekend. Not their fault, just overindexed.

Yeah MTCs did overindex relative to BW. Like I said in the tracking thread TSS will be a better comp moving forward as the MTC-heaviness was almost identical to that one. 

[Legion Again]

I would like to beat F9 on the 3-day, but looking pretty tough. Still, going over 60 is pretty good and I don’t think the crumbling bar will be a problem. Good number 👍

[charlie Jatinder]

If only Disney had given a nice round $9M, its not like $8.8M is actual number, 🥱

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Look, to be clear, 8.8m is great considering I had it at 40m weekend a month ago and as low as 6.5 at one point yesterday. But I think anything from 55-75 leaves us in a murky place where studios still make rash decisions to delay or PA. Sue me, but I think a shocking 35m OD and 90m weekend probably would have given enough confidence to freeze the schedule, yes. So of course I was rooting for that surprise.

Pretty much my thoughts. I think 70M 4 day weekend will still lead to a couple of delays.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I would like to beat F9 on the 3-day, but looking pretty tough. Still, going over 60 is pretty good and I don’t think the crumbling bar will be a problem. Good number 👍

Probably needs 20m today to have a chance on that. Probably would need 8.8-20-22-20 or thereabouts (I think the Sat bump will be depressed since families are more Delta-hesitant). I am a bit more cautious than @keysersoze123 since the targets he has set for 20 million look a bit tough, so I would say it's going a bit below that, especially since this seems to be MTC-heavy. But it's not that tough imo. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I would like to beat F9 on the 3-day, but looking pretty tough. Still, going over 60 is pretty good and I don’t think the crumbling bar will be a problem. Good number 👍

I wouldnt unrealistic though a fri 20,22sat and 20 sun doesnt seem unrealistic to me

                          

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Well, they were, so you are forgiven  

 

Sorry, would have mentioned you, but I remembered you saying your comps pointing at 10m as well.  My apologies for not double checking your post and then tagging you in offering to join in the Power Walk of Victory Strut. 👍

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Probably needs 20m today to have a chance on that. Probably would need 8.8-20-22-20 or thereabouts (I think the Sat bump will be depressed since families are more Delta-hesitant). 

Doubt 20 is happening, would be nice. I see more like +15% -6% so could get there from 19.