SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not this year - no.  They are seeming to stay home more than in the past...Black Widow probably brought the most out by actual physical purchase...

 

"Black Widow was guy-heavy at 58%, with 52% under 25, and close to half the audience between 18-34. Diversity demos were 46% Caucasian, 21% Latino, 16% Black, and 18% Asian/other. " https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-opening-weekend-box-office-1234789473/

That 23% Asians/Other felt a lot since Asian average is around 8-10% but now you mentioned BW numbers, that's just an over index of 5%.

[nguyenkhoi282]

Lmao Deadline even has the audacity to point out that their Saturday projection would be -7% vs pure Friday 🤡

[Fox20]

Imagine Deadline getting saturday right having the last laugh after being wrong with every single other number.

[CJohn]

Now the waiting for Saturday numbers begins.

[tonytr87]

16 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

This is a gigantic stretch. Black Panther starts with all the characters from the distant world being dragged into the normal world. Shang-Chi starts with the protagonists in the normal world and takes them into increasingly fantastical environments. 

 

"Awkwafina is Shuri": Not even vaguely the same actorial function, nor the same character type. Shuri is immersed in the 'far away' world, Katy is the one embedded in the 'normal' world. Shuri is a genius, Katy is the audience proxy. Even if you were hypothetically playing the "which Black Panther character is this" game for some inexplicable reason Katy would be Everett Ross, not Shuri.

 

"Rhinos v Dragons": In Shang-Chi the Dragons are a fundamental, core component of the plot and resolution of the film. In Black Panther.....there are some Rhinos. 

 

Family Squabbles: Half of the films in existence can be reduced to "Family Squabbles". Heck, Black Panther isn't even that heavy with the family squabbles. The characters in Shang-Chi are a nuclear family. Black Panther just uses a trope of the distant lost cousin.  

 

"Hard to ignore" my foot. Just bad faith shoehorning. Seriously, I haven't even posted on this forum in two years and yet this was just too silly for me not to respond to.

 

 

Codswallop.

 

Shang-Chi seems to be doing well over here in the UK within reason. Good word of mouth so far on social media, and cinema was pretty close to full all day. Only anecdotal but promising.

 

I'm talking about the marketing. So touchy. You guys really need to stop showing your ass when it comes to willfully misinterpreting what you view as disagreeable opinions. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Fox20 said:

Imagine Deadline getting saturday right having the last laugh after being wrong with every single other number.

Not happening. I am very confident in this. The increase may be small but it will increase.

[AdrianL]

Let's gooooooo

 

Sony moving Venom was such a horrible move. If Shang-Chi holds well it could #1 till Bond (unless Dear Evan Hansen does well, which is possible)

[TalismanRing]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I bet I haven't seen any film to have 60% White audience. 

 

 

Among blockbusters, no

 

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/MPA-THEME-2019.pdf

 

 

There are probably quite a few that aren't among the higher grossers. The highest % I saw for the last several years among the top 5 (which MPAA gives the breakdown for) I think were Deadpool and I think LEGO at 54%.

 

MPAA gives a breakdown for frequent movie goers (instead of overall moviegoers)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Let's gooooooo

 

Sony moving Venom was such a horrible move. If Shang-Chi holds well it could #1 till Bond (unless Dear Evan Hansen does well, which is possible)

 

"Incel Suicide Fantasy: The Musical: The Motion Picture" isn't doing shit. 

 

Throw that trash to Peacock 

[ThomasNicole]

Great. The worst case scenario i can see is:

8.8M previews

20.8M friday

22M saturday (+6%)

17M sunday (-23%)

 

And it will still get 68.6M, i think that is the floor.

 

But honestly, with such good WOM i think sat bump will be at least 10% and sun no more than 15% drop. I'm confident F9 is going down, especially because sat bump can be way bigger than that if walkups do great today too.

[WrathOfHan]

Let's do a long range forecast

 

Shang-Chi:

Sep 3: 67.5M (28.8M weekdays, 96.3M total; Labor Day 14.4M, 81.9M 4 day)

Sep 10: 30.6M (11.3M weekdays, 138.2M total)

Sep 17: 18.8M (6.7M weekdays, 163.7M total)

Sep 24: 11.6M (3.9M weekdays, 179.2M total)

Oct 1: 6.5M (2.2M weekdays, 187.9M total)

Oct 8: 3.2M (1M weekdays, 192.1M total)

Oct 15: 1.2M (400k weekdays, 193.6M total)

Oct 22: 600k (200k weekdays, 194.4M total)

Final Total: 197M (2.92x from 3 day/2.41x from 4 day)

 

I think it's safely going over Black Widow, and if it's that close to 200, I'd expect Disney to fudge it. Da movies are BACK

[Cmasterclay]

Great, great number. Probably number one until October 1st, where even an HBO Max crippled Sopranos movie will do at least 12m and top it. 

 

Shockingly good hold for Candyman, a franchise horror movie losing all PLF screens.

[WrathOfHan]

I still think this loses #1 to Dear Evan Hansen in a few weeks unless the second and third weekend holds are insane. I currently have Shang-Chi's 2nd weekend dropping 55% (standard MCU; it could be higher due to no holiday) and 3rd weekend dropping 39%, and DEH probably isn't opening below 15M. The marketing campaign for DEH is picking up the pace, and I'm seeing more and more ads/tie-ins for it. DEH will probably take Dolby/RPX/XD while Shang-Chi keeps IMAX, which would hurt Shang-Chi's fourth weekend slightly.

Edited September 4, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Paramount is going to regret moving MI and Top Gun. lmao

Top Gun was obviously moved more for competition purposes rather than Covid. Not to mention a Memorial Day release is just a better fit for that movie 

[YM!]

I don’t want to get to overexcited but I think SC could get a 3x multiple, it has strong WOM and no real competition until like Bond which is in 6 weeks.

 

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Great, great number. Probably number one until October 1st, where even an HBO Max crippled Sopranos movie will do at least 12m and top it. 

 

Shockingly good hold for Candyman, a franchise horror movie losing all PLF screens.

I could see DEH opening to 20m as well but forgot when it opens.

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And it will still get 68.6M, i think that is the floor.

@MrPink

[MrPink]

Just now, Cap said:

@MrPink

Round up to 69 because that’s nice

[YM!]

Second weekend hold has me curious as I could see a normal 55-60% drop considering the fact that is the usual for MCU and most CBMs and it’s after a busy holiday weekend. However, I want to see some comparisons on Labor Day openers (though not the perfect comparisons) for an idea.

[Cmasterclay]

I actually have talked to a couple of smart posters here who think Cry Macho could do high teens, so I'm not gonna dismiss that out of hand even though I'm going more like 12m. Doesn't have the hook of the Mule but Clint usually does draw when he stars.

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Second weekend hold has me curious as I could see a normal 55-60% drop considering the fact that is the usual for MCU and most CBMs and it’s after a busy holiday weekend. However, I want to see some comparisons on Labor Day openers (though not the perfect comparisons) for an idea.

Top 5 Labor Day OWs:

 

Halloween: -64%

Tenet: -67% (keep in mind the OW number was stretched over a week)

The Possession: -47%

Transporter 2: -55%

One Direction: This Is Us: -74%

 

And recent Memorial Day openers for a comp as well:

 

A Quiet Place Part II: -59%

Cruella: -49%

Aladdin: -53%

Solo: -65%

Pirates 5: -65%

X-Men Apocalypse: -65%

 

Honestly, a high-40s/low-50s drop for Shang-Chi would be pretty outstanding, especially with football starting back up. 

Edited September 4, 2021 by WrathOfHan