Weekdays Thread (6/6-9) // 12.4m Mon // 13.76m Tue // 12.4m Wed // 9.0m Thurs

[LonePirate]

So when does TGM hit $400M and pass DS2? Next Tuesday or a later date if the PLF loss hits harder than expected?

[wildphantom]

TG2 has just overtaken MoM and TB for top grosser of the year so far here in the U.K.  What a couple of weeks it’s had in Blighty  

 

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

So when does TGM hit $400M and pass DS2? Next Tuesday or a later date if the PLF loss hits harder than expected?

at the rate it’s going, possibly Sunday 

[MrPink]

I tried looking in the Top Gun thread and couldn't find any predicts from me other than I thought 130-135m was the floor. I think folks on Telegram can back me up when I said I was around 180m, with great reviews possibly pushing it to around MI Fallout numbers which still makes me look like a dummy.

 

Obviously by the time we hit April I was then over the Fallout club.

Edited June 8, 2022 by MrPink

[Cheddar Please]

So far I've been hearing anything from <$60m to $70m+ for Top Gun this weekend, but does anyone know where the advance sales are pointing towards?

 

[Legion Again]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

So far I've been hearing anything from <$60m to $70m+ for Top Gun this weekend, but does anyone know where the advance sales are pointing towards?

 

Advance sales don’t really matter for 3rd weekend, just look at daily patterns vs historical.

[XXR vs XXR]

Super duper early but let’s go with $12.3M today.

[EmpireCity]

Tuesday should be right at $13.85m

[Legion Again]

Th should head for about 11.4M based on what I’m seeing right now, update later tonight.

[keysersoze123]

WOW. Nice number. 

 

On @baumer post, I think early cinemacon reactions made things look optimistic. There was also early buzz which was good and even BOP's initial projections for the movie were good. I still thought 125/275 even after OD of presales. But once the reviews floodgates opened I thought it will have a special run. Still no where close to what we are seeing. 

 

That said someone created TGM > 300m club back in 2019. He deserves special kudos. @SLAM! created TGM > JWD mid April before presales and reviews and that is absolute nuts. Someone created TGM > DS2 thread just during OW of DS2 before presales started for TGM. That was crazy as well. So there were folks who did expect mega breakout for sure. Though no one saw exactly what we are seeing. There is no @B J who predicted that Avatar would do > 700m months before actual release. 

[M37]

14 minutes ago, T-ReXXR said:

Super duper early but let’s go with $12.3M today.

So -17% vs LW as compared to -13% for Tue, sounds reasonable … but I think there’s a decent chance the w/w drop is smaller, and we get like $12.5-6 instead 

[EmpireCity]

I think I'm now getting mocked.  

[titanic2187]

TGM made box office run more fun to follow, instead of some boring run that random people can slam a multiplier between 2.3X to 2.7x legs and you will still have 90% of accuracy even if you have stop paying attention to its box office run. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

I think I'm now getting mocked.  

Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Has @Shawn posted 3rd weekend forecast? Would be funny if its $57M 😄

[Cheddar Please]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Has @Shawn posted 3rd weekend forecast? Would be funny if its $57M 😄

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

shawn’s early second weekend forecast was $57 million. Let’s just say it caused a bit of a stir this time last week. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

19 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

that $57m was supposed to be its 2nd weekend...

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

Problem is that TG2 is giving up basically all its PLF shows to JWD, and that’s going to depress grossing potential 

 

Now last weekend’s remarkable hold showed the audience pool has expanded and isn’t dependent on PLF, but if it would have held at like -15% for this upcoming weekend, then the impact of JWD and loss of PLF could knock that down to say -35% 

 

But betting against TG2 has made a lot of people look foolish in last 2 weeks 🙋‍♂️

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

It’s an inside joke based on early 2nd weekends predictions from BOP.

 

Nevertheless, a lot of people think losing all of the PLF screens will add an extra level of loss. Let’s say without any PLF loss, TGM experienced a 20% drop this weekend. If 2/3 of the expected tickets sold came through PLF, losing that premium pricing would turn a 20% drop into a 30% drop even with the same number of tickets being sold.