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[baumer]

I don't think I posted all that often in the Top Gun thread if at all, but I remember thinking to myself this has a chance of really tanking. There was also part of me that was thinking it might make $150 million.

[wildphantom]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

 

I was hopeful it might hit $150 million total domestic. I’d have taken it six weeks ago 

[filmnerdjamie]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

 

I saw $150M domestic as best case scenario.

 

What's awesome about this success it cements how right William Goldman was. Nobody knows anything.

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

 

On 4/19/2022 at 12:01 AM, Legion and Thunder said:

JW OW over tg2 DOM

😎

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

In April I said, “Solo + inflation…” so that would be like $240-250M.

[Borobudur]

I was looking for 200m top for TGM, based on the number I saw with GB:A. But even after the amazing review, I thought this can only go as high as 300m. 

[SchumacherFTW]

I always thought over 300m, everyone's dad wanted to see it. I knew I was right, but didn't realise to the extent that I was 😅

[Legion Again]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

I always thought over 300m, everyone's dad wanted to see it. I knew I was right, but didn't realise to the extent that I was 😅

I mean Cmon, how many dads can there be in the US anyway, pssshh

 

Spoiler

I actually looked this up awhile ago, if each dad went once it’s good for about… 800M 👀

 

[titanic2187]

42 minutes ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

I always see TGM as a right-wing event so my prediction was the movie is going to make 200m, possibly 250m if the reception is good. 

 

8 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

One thing Top Gun has going for it that most big movies don't is that the right wing media apparatus is trying to claim this movie as theirs, so a lot of chuds who never go to the movies are gonna help its legs out a lot.

 

I would say TGM is the most “conservative” blockbuster in recent years. No matter ring wing media make a big deal out of this.

[baumer]

So it seems like everybody was obviously lowballing this until maybe the last trailer came out and then people started making predictions for huge Memorial opening weekend. @Empire said he thinks it would do 70 million three day and people were shocked at that and then from there people started up in their predictions.

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I mean Cmon, how many dads can there be in the US anyway, pssshh

 

  Hide contents

I actually looked this up awhile ago, if each dad went once it’s good for about… 800M 👀

 

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

So it seems like everybody was obviously lowballing this until maybe the last trailer came out and then people started making predictions for huge Memorial opening weekend. @Empire said he thinks it would do 70 million three day and people were shocked at that and then from there people started up in their predictions.

it was pretty much when tracking started to come out. Shawn over at boxofficepro started talking about a $100 million start, but by that point we were aware the film was supposed to be incredible. So I guess somewhere around CinemaCon to that first tracking things really started to turn. 
 

So many of us were sleeping on it. We’ve been burned too many times with sequels to legacy blockbusters that didn’t have the kind of pull box office wise that we thought.  Plus, NWH aside, there wasn’t the surest of evidence the boomers were going to come out for a movie that is aimed at them more than anybody. Considering their reluctance the last couple of years. 

[stripe]

6 months ago I thought it would be one of the failures of the Summer.

3 months ago I increased my expectations to 120-150M.

2 months ago I really thought that 200M DOM was the very high end for TGM, no matter early WOM

1 month ago I realized how wrong I was and began to expect something like 200-300M DOM

After opening I was thinking 400M DOM

 

I wont underestimate TGM again

[Brainbug]

Before the reviews came in, i though Top Gun could optimistically gross something like 200 - 250M, ala play like a Mission Impossible film. After the reviews i increased my prediction to 270 - 300M.

 

Now im on the 650M+ train, but when it really grosses 70M+ in its 3rd weekend ... well then, some blue guys may be in trouble of beeing outgrossed DOM for the fourth time.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

The real question would be "show hands......" before pre-sales started because after sales started it was certain $100M+ opener and $150M+ 4-days was very much expected.

[LonePirate]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

I don't think I posted all that often in the Top Gun thread if at all, but I remember thinking to myself this has a chance of really tanking. There was also part of me that was thinking it might make $150 million.

$150M would have been a great guess if you were predicting the seven day stretch from June 1 - June 7 as it has grossed roughly $145M in that period. Just pretend its first five days and the next few months are non-existent.

[KJsooner]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

I thought 250 million dollars tops. No way did I think it was capable of this type of performance. It’s like The Hangover’s run on steroids.

[EmpireCity]

I always thought it would be huge and Tom Cruise’s biggest opener ever.I knew for sure when I saw the opening 15 min back in Aug. 2021.

[charlie Jatinder]

13.75

[M37]

3 hours ago, baumer said:

Show of hands, before Top Gun started setting records and blowing all of our minds, how many people here actually thought that it would do well? I don't mean holy shit, well, I just mean who here actually thought it might make 200 million? This isn't a criticism and I'm not looking to show anyone up, for those of you who have known me for the last 20 years, you guys know I've made a lot of incredibly massively terrible predictions at the box office. So without going through the entire Top Gun thread I'm just wondering what most of you guys thought it would do at the box office before it got released this year.

My general impression was that it would be a totally fine, but ultimately disposable, popcorn-action flick that would grab like $90M for the 4-day OW and around $300 DOM. Basically double NTTD

 

Honestly glad to have been wrong, to see quality being rewarded, reminding people what the theatrical experience is supposed to be like