Weekdays Thread (6/6-9) // 12.4m Mon // 13.76m Tue // 12.4m Wed // 9.0m Thurs

[Cheddar Please]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

shawn’s early second weekend forecast was $57 million. Let’s just say it caused a bit of a stir this time last week. 

Ah, but unironically the amount of people I see on Reddit who are saying it's missing $600m because of JWD makes makes me want to 

[vafrow]

I thought $200-250M was it's max. The idea that this movie is going to potentially triple the best performing Mission Impossible movie is still baffling to me. 

 

I'm ecstatic to have been wrong though. This film rewrites the post pandemic box office narrative, which was veering towards a world where the superhero franchises were the only ones to return to the before times performance. 

 

This is a box office performance that hopefully should have studios thinking about what they have in the pipeline. 

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

WOW. Nice number

13.8 will be double nice 

[noknobs]

1 hour ago, Cheddar Please said:

Where are people getting <60m from? Like this is a common narrative I see on Reddit as well, why do people think that another wide release will suddenly kill all the momentum that this film, one that has overperformed all and any expectations prior, in it's third weekend. Like I just can't grasp how people are still lowballing even after all the massive prediction blowouts

How on earth is $60m now considered lowballing!? Wtf

[Cheddar Please]

14 minutes ago, noknobs said:

How on earth is $60m now considered lowballing!? Wtf

I was referring to the people making ~45-55m predictions

[LegendaryBen]

2 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Th should head for about 11.4M based on what I’m seeing right now, update later tonight.

Is this your prediction or did you get it from a reliable source?

[Xavier]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

I thought $200-250M was it's max. The idea that this movie is going to potentially triple the best performing Mission Impossible movie is still baffling to me. 

 

I'm ecstatic to have been wrong though. This film rewrites the post pandemic box office narrative, which was veering towards a world where the superhero franchises were the only ones to return to the before times performance. 

 

This is a box office performance that hopefully should have studios thinking about what they have in the pipeline. 

You know what they don’t have though? They don’t have Tom Cruise, or A Tom Cruise for that matter, a charismatic, relentlessly workaholic mega star and producer with a crazy work ethic.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Xavier

[M37]

The BOP forecast today is going to very interesting, for both JWD and TG2 

[wildphantom]

Is it too late for Universal to change JWD’s title before tomorrow afternoon?

 

Jurassic World: Maverick

[Daxtreme]

I think it's hilarious to see people on /r/boxoffice still arguing between themselves whether EmpireCity is a trusted source or not

 

Guys, you're like 5 years late       

[Krissykins]

Reddit is being mentioned way too much here lately. 
 

It’s a hell hole for basement dwellers and people who like to just spew negativity constantly. 

[MattW]

To @baumer's question, my expectation is similar to a lot already mentioned. Before presales I thought 150-200 domestic, after presales started and were strong bumped up to 200 or a little more, then the week of release and even as numbers were coming in Friday and Saturday I still didn't think over 300 was a sure thing.

 

As a side note, TGM's 2nd weekend edged out American Sniper's 1st wide weekend, and AS's 2nd was 64.6 which a few people think Maverick's 3rd will match or beat...

I see it closer to 60 even with Tuesday's number, I think Thurs will drop a fair amount and Friday will see a smaller bump (but I've underestimated it every step up to now so.... <shrug>). Still, AS is at the top of the game for blockbuster legs in the modern era of box office so the comparison is at the front of my mind right now.

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, MattW said:

To @baumer's question, my expectation is similar to a lot already mentioned. Before presales I thought 150-200 domestic, after presales started and were strong bumped up to 200 or a little more, then the week of release and even as numbers were coming in Friday and Saturday I still didn't think over 300 was a sure thing.

 

As a side note, TGM's 2nd weekend edged out American Sniper's 1st wide weekend, and AS's 2nd was 64.6 which a few people think Maverick's 3rd will match or beat...

I see it closer to 60 even with Tuesday's number, I think Thurs will drop a fair amount and Friday will see a smaller bump (but I've underestimated it every step up to now so.... <shrug>). Still, AS is at the top of the game for blockbuster legs in the modern era of box office so the comparison is at the front of my mind right now.

a Thursday ‘wobble’ seems reasonable, considering the movie that’s opening that afternoon. 
 

I think the weekend decline will be more like 35-38% myself. $60 million’ish. 

[Liiviig 1998]

27 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Reddit is being mentioned way too much here lately. 
 

It’s a hell hole for basement dwellers and people who like to just spew negativity constantly. 

Yeah pretty much. Use to follow r/box office which basically turned into fanboy wars once a DC/MCU movie released.

 

Still follow the television subreddit though . Gotten lots of great recommendations for tv shows there.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[Ozymandias]

I can't believe this was 10 years ago already, wtf.  Not many movies have made a lot of people as mad as this one!  And I'll always remember this as the last movie I saw at a midnight premiere before Americas gun problem got that tradition canceled.

 

 

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

Do you all think Thursday could be 10m.

 

Until now only 6 movies had their first two sets of weekdays above 10m

TFA (all above 22.9m)

NWH (all above 20m, only the 2nd Friday (Christmas Eve) was slightly below 20m)

TLJ (all above 16.8m)

Rouge One (all above 14.9m)

Avatar (all above 11m - first Thursday was Christmas Eve , next lowest day New Years eve 2nd Thursday with over 14m)

and (honestly was shocked):

Incredibles 2, it's 2nd Thursday was 10,020,390, so barely above.

 

5 Christmas movies and one summer movie.

 

Closest other movies are probably ROTS (another Christmas movie, 2nd Thursday was first day below 10 mit 9.3m) and JW with 8.9m, Wednesday was 9.4m).

[keysersoze123]

I like reddit. But not movies/BO. Otherwise there are tons of great sub reddits with response from actual stakeholders. You have companies responding to product complains, very interesting AMA happening regularly. But you need to pick the right sub reddits based on interests. 

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Do you all think Thursday could be 10m.

 

Until now only 6 movies had their first two sets of weekdays above 10m

TFA (all above 22.9m)

NWH (all above 20m, only the 2nd Friday (Christmas Eve) was slightly below 20m)

TLJ (all above 16.8m)

Rouge One (all above 14.9m)

Avatar (all above 11m - first Thursday was Christmas Eve , next lowest day New Years eve 2nd Thursday with over 14m)

and (honestly was shocked):

Incredibles 2, it's 2nd Thursday was 10,020,390, so barely above.

 

5 Christmas movies and one summer movie.

 

Closest other movies are probably ROTS (another Christmas movie, 2nd Thursday was first day below 10 mit 9.3m) and JW with 8.9m, Wednesday was 9.4m).

Thinking 12.5-13m+ Wednesday

Thurs  drop thinking around mid teens 

10.5m-11m+ Thurs.

 

[wildphantom]

14 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

I can't believe this was 10 years ago already, wtf.  Not many movies have made a lot of people as mad as this one!  And I'll always remember this as the last movie I saw at a midnight premiere before Americas gun problem got that tradition canceled.

 

 

 

 

 

Lots of that movie is excellent. Plus it was maybe the best 3D experience I’ve ever had in the theatre. 
 

overall, it had problems - but it is not even close to being awful. 

Edited June 8, 2022 by wildphantom

[Liiviig 1998]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I like reddit. But not movies/BO. Otherwise there are tons of great sub reddits with response from actual stakeholders. You have companies responding to product complains, very interesting AMA happening regularly. But you need to pick the right sub reddits based on interests. 

Yeah any subreddit based on media is a no go for the most part but good subreddits can be found.

But nothing is as bad as twitter ,it's a centre for lots of toxicity and some  of the most brain dead takes I've seen. Couldn't last a year.