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charlie Jatinder

11-14 Weekday Thread | Featuring Future BOFFY Award Winning Meltdown of Our Fallen False God

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

Thor 13.5 Minions 8.2 TGM 2.45

What we should actually focus on

Recommended by Eric Prime

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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5 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-opening-1235314541/

 

$55-65m for Thor L&T

In terms of newcomers, “Where the Crawdads Sing” and “Paws of Fury” each hope to generate at least $10 million between Friday and Sunday. Box office watchers believe “Crawdads” could pull ahead of “Paws” on box office charts

 

Could? Lol - at this point, its a question of whether Crawdads doubles or triples up Paws

 

Big Range for Thor, getting over $60M seems like a stretch. Would be -48% from TrueFSS, $5M too high on both ends

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Liiviig 1998 Box Office Gold

Liiviig 1998

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, M37 said:

In terms of newcomers, “Where the Crawdads Sing” and “Paws of Fury” each hope to generate at least $10 million between Friday and Sunday. Box office watchers believe “Crawdads” could pull ahead of “Paws” on box office charts

 

Could? Lol - at this point, its a question of whether Crawdads doubles or triples up Paws

 

Big Range for Thor, getting over $60M seems like a stretch. Would be -48% from TrueFSS, $5M too high on both ends

Be lucky to get to 55m.

 

More like 47-52m.

 

BW, HC and antman 2 dropped around 9-10% on Thurs.

 

2nd FSS jump and drop range for the 3

 

Fri +60%

Sat +30-40%

Sun -25-29%

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

This bothers me because like I know that they're using the initial release, but like...this isn't true? Doesn't matter because it will go past Titanic anyways, but it's not true!

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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So how do you put somebody on ignore? Never ever look into that even as a moderator back in the day. I assume you have to go to someone's profile and do it there?

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titanic2187 Summer Tentpole

titanic2187

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21 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:


 

On 5/12/2022 at 2:45 AM, titanic2187 said:

Dream bigger,TG2 as the highest grossing film for paramount since titanic.

 

I was just joking! 
 

 

Anyway, the number they should use is $659.4m since TGM release come after titanic re-releases.

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reddevil19 Box Office Gold

reddevil19

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You know... I've been with this forum since the BOM days. Not always regularly, then I messed up my account and had to move up a number from 18 to 19. Then I started losing interest in box office, then the pandemic, and I just couldn't be bothered with all the doom and gloom about cinemas, the talk about streaming, just endless Marvel movies and TV shows and on and on and on. So I never bothered commenting again even when my fingers itched. But I've been lurking, and I feel like I wanna say my peace as well...

 

There's a difference between expressing opinions and arguing politely and turning "anti-wokeness" and general culture war shit into a way of life. And when you add smugness and condescension into the mix, it's never pretty. Frankly, a lot of those types of posts were the reason I either stayed away altogether or didn't comment, because I decided it's not healthy for me to get involved in these sorts of flame wars.

 

I think EC's insights will be missed (though hopefully he will return), but he definitely needs to work on his delivery a bit.

 

Having said all that...

  • Thor Love and Thunder was complete dogshit.
  • Doctor Strange was part dogshit. Decent Raimi-isms throughout, but overall uncreative, unremarkable, instantly forgettable.
  • EEAAO was amazing. Give it all the awards.
  • Top Gun Maverick was awesome and while American exceptionalism (as in, INDIVIDUAL exceptionalism, with an individual pilot being the iconic embodiment of American superlative - given they make a point of being the underdogs technologically here) brought in the more conservative whites out and Fox News embraced it, I can't begrudge them that. I haven't been on the edge of my seat like I was for that third act in ages (probably since Fallout, really)
  • Pretty much all the Disney+ MCU and SW shows are complete dogshit.
  • WB continues to be a shitshow and what they did with their slate last year is unforgivable. DC in particular continues to be run by monkeys, judging by how hit-and-miss they are (The Suicide Squad and Peacemaker were great, WW84 was terrible and The Batman was good but each scene needed to be slightly trimmed, as it went from "build tension and atmosphere" to "get on with it alreeeeeeady!!!",The Black Adam trailer was horrendous, and The Flash is clearly cursed).
  • How in the hell did they manage to take the FB series from "cute, harmless, Potter-lite fun" to complete dogshit over the course of 3 movies? 
  • JWD is stupider than the previous entries (including the famous ALAN-led JP3), but it was entertaining. I think the Malta Jason Bourne-style chase is exactly what the movie needed to be. A world-spanning caper which has the dinos in urban areas for fun, over-the-top scenes. But hey, I was advocating a Fast and Furious crossover with JW after Fallen Order - who better to track dinosaurs and catch them than LA FAMIGLIA? But I don't run Universal, so they went with this shit instead...
  • Speaking of Fast and Furious - fuck me, was the 9th one bad. Cements my opinion than Vin Diesel can't have so much of the focus in those movies, otherwise it collapses into a black hole of stupidity, with not enough charisma to hold it up).
  • No Way Home was almost unwatchable dogshit, propped up by terrible effects, nostalgia and fan service. But Goddamn if it wasn't a fun experience at the movies. That's the good shit that you don't get at home, on your sofa. The thrill of 200 people cheering for Andrew Garfield!
  • Eternals was a pretty-looking piece of dogshit, hampered by not being a miniseries
  • Shang Chi was an amazing, God level action flick for 3/4 of the runtime then it devolved into complete dogshit.
  • Black Widow exists

I hope Love and Thunder finishes under Ragnarok, I hope Dominion beats Strange, I hope Avatar 2 can somehow be a good movie, to justify its long gestation, and at the same time, it underperforms at the box office, because despite my love for the theatrical experience I doubt even DC, SW or MCU meltdowns would be as entertaining for me as a James Cameron failure. 

In conclusion, movies suck now, but I still love watching the big dumb fun on a big screen, and love to read about their box office here. Just with less condescension now, hopefully...

Peace!

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VanillaSkies Box Office Gold

VanillaSkies

Posted
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37 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/box-office/box-office-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-opening-1235314541/

 

$55-65m for Thor L&T


MoM made 61.8 million in its 2nd weekend. While I would love to see Thor soar as high as 65 million in its second weekend, it just doesn’t seem realistic considering MoM opened 43 million higher. I actually think 55 million would be a win, given its having stronger weekdays (compared to MoM) that are burning off some demand.

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

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While this weekend's new releases are a bit of yawners, this is an important weekend in terms of projected total gross

 

Thor vs Minions: The battle for the #4 slot for summer will get a lot more clarity after this weekend. How low does Thor drop, and does Rise of Gru settle into a more of DM3 or Minions pattern?

 

Also a big weekend for TGM in terms of vying for a $700M finish. What once was a "lock" is looking less certain, and if those dreams are to keep flying high, then it needs to lock onto a NWH-esque -20% weekly flight path, starting this weekend. Here's how that would math out through September; obviously there would be fluctuation between weeks depending on competition, with some larger drops expected (vs Nope, Bullet Train) followed by rebound holds. I've also penciled in an IMAX re-release bump for starting presumably in the empty slot on Aug 19th, based on Dune's from December, which increased that weekly gross by ~70% from what would have been expected, as well as a flat Labor Day week

TGM: Path to $700M Domestic (20% Base Drop Rate)
Fri Date Weekend Weekly Proj Cume Actual
1-Jul       $581.91
8-Jul $15.51 $23.90 $605.81 $601.91
15-Jul $12.40 $19.12 $624.93  
22-Jul $9.92 $15.30 $640.22  
29-Jul $7.94 $12.24 $652.46  
5-Aug $6.35 $9.79 $662.25  
12-Aug $5.08 $7.83 $670.08  
19-Aug $4.06 $6.27 $676.35  
26-Aug $3.25 $5.01 $681.36  
2-Sep $3.00 $5.00 $686.36  
9-Sep $2.08 $4.00 $690.36  
16-Sep $1.66 $3.20 $693.56  
23-Sep $1.33 $2.56 $696.12  
30-Sep $1.07 $2.05 $698.17  
IMAX Bump $2.70 $4.00 $702.17  

 

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