The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

@katnisscinnaplex what is the showcount for Barbie early shows?

 

A 109

C 45

R 40

Total 421

Dolby 109

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Ummm WTF…Barbie is selling great in Greece. It has about 15 near sold out showing in Athens through out its opening weekend and most of them are in freaking Thursday. Like this may not seem like a lot but in Greece we do not to presales and definitely not presales on a Thursday for a film that opens in a week unless it is a huge ass Marvel event film. In fact I don’t recall Marvel’s latest films being this presales heavy. This about to become WB’s biggest success here since The Joker in Greece (obviously not on the same level as TJ because that was just a one of a kind juggernaut here — top 5 movies of all time with week to week increases and extraordinary legs ).

[TinaDuraes]

6 hours ago, Fanboy said:

It will be interesting if studios do counter programming on this scale in future as people are already trying to make a Wonka/Napoleon double feature a meme now. 

That meme makes zero sense. Those movies come out a month apart.

But yes, Hollywood will absolutely try to replicate this and embarrass themselves. Barbenheimer was organic, you can't force something like this.

[keysersoze123]

51 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That's wild, do you think we could see an 8x IM for both? Considering how well previews are tracking for both that would be a truly mind boggling weekend...

Looking at Sat presales, Oppy is 95% of Friday while Barbie is at tad under 3/4th of Friday sales. Obviously that is due to Oppy audience skewing older and would prefer weekend and also movie being 3 hour long plus also Oppy have very low show count entire weekend. Big Imaxes are selling great into its 3rd week at this point. So Oppy its not just about its IM which will be better than what we have seen recently and also about having great week 2/3 holds due to it keeping those key Imax screens and also spillover business. If anything I could see better multi than Dunkirk here if its received as well as Dunkirk. Let us wait for next thursday to confirm. 

 

Barbie is a cultural phenomenon and that will pull in the audience. 8x seems tough considering previews will be low 20s. Lack of sufficient PLF would impede that. But I am feeling very confident about 150m OW. So its going to get close to 7x and have crazy strong sat/sun holds and I expect even weekdays to be strong for Barbie. if the reception is like what I expect for Gerwig movies, I expect it go for 500m+ domestic. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

A 109

C 45

R 40

Total 421

Dolby 109

Thank you. I dont think that is sufficient for 2m. Probably closer to 1.5m at best. MTC1 at least wont over index big time like for other movies bcos of lack of Imax. 

[el sid]

Haunted Mansion, counted yesterday for Thursday, July 27 = 12 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 29 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 31 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 43 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 72 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 194 (it were 176 sold tickets two days before).

Comps: Ghostbusters: Afterlife had with 4 days left 889 sold tickets,
Zombieland 2 had with 1 day left 743 sold tickets,
Renfield had also with 1 day left 316 sold tickets.

and Violent Night had with 9 days left 81 sold tickets

Haunted Mansion, counted yesterday for Friday, July 28 = 13 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 23 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 26 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 77 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 150 (123 sold tickets two days before).

 

Comps: Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M OW) had with 11 days left 234 sold tickets,
Zombieland 2 (26.8M) had with 2 days left 727 sold tickets,
Violent Night (13.5M) had with 10 days left 48 sold tickets,

Renfield (8M) had with 2 days left 269 sold tickets

and JC (35M) had with 3 days left 357 sold tickets.

As expected no big jumps since Thursday but overall still good numbers.
So for the moment I still think that it could open similar to The House with a Clock in Its Walls (26.6M OW) or maybe JC.

[titanic2187]

The past week has been crazy strong for Barbieheimer but I wonder if this an effect from the series of marketing that bought forward to this week to avoid strike, which allow PS flourish earlier than in the run. Would be interesting to see the final week taper off,  if not Jul 21-23 would be a very memorable weekend. 

[redfirebird2008]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Here is exactly my concern with capacity for Barbie: Oppy, with the PLF commitment and long running time, is going to eat up a lot of screens by default (before we factor in the human element of those booking screens probably being less in touch with the Barbie mania).

 

PLF is its own thing, in that if you have that screen there's automatically a standard screen booked as well, and needs at least one if not two more to get a viable set of showtimes. Plus the holdovers jockeying for space - including the unexpected hit SOF - and there's just a limit to how much screen-estate Barbie can get

 

The one advantage is the short running time, so a lot of shows can be fit into fewer screens, but still a cap on the number of primetime slots

 

PS - I like we have all just silently agreed to nickname the film Oppy

I don’t think it’s much of a problem for Barbie. My local theater has Barbie playing about 30 times per day, while Oppenheimer is playing less than 10 times per day. Barbie is in quite a few large auditoriums, including one that might as well be labeled PLF (huge screen with a lot of seats). Oppenheimer has 1 PLF screen and a few pretty small looking auditoriums. 

[M37]

47 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, how many theaters do you suppose will hold both Spidey and Elemental with single 9am showings for FSS, so they can expand them to more showings during the week (but give their designated screen showings to Barbie/Oppy/MI this weekend).

 

I ask b/c I noticed in presales, MI's screen showing starts at 12pm at my locals, and one Oppy screen also doesn't start til 12:20pm...and I know my theater opens at 9am b/c of the summer weekdays and camp trips...

 

If I were to set, I'd do it...and I'd keep Insidious as an 11pm showing on any of the big 3 (or on SoF's screen - that would probably be best) for the same reasons.

 

Trying to stay with 7 movies being shown at 12s and 14s, and not 4-5...

 

I don't know what I'd do about Indy, but I'm not paid for this (if it were me, I'd probably drop it for Elemental, but I don't know what Disney might offer theaters to keep it)...

To answer you primary question: not many at all. They'll either make the cut to hold at least 2-3 shows, or they won't. Maybe a couple of single show bookings, but doubtful they will be at 9AM

 

For a more detail response (hiding behind spoiler because its somewhat off topic

Spoiler

All booking decisions are done at the corporate level, not theater, and its generally location specific, though there are commonalities

 

One person is responsible for a specific set of theaters, usually divided by market or some other common thread (like one person may book the busiest 20 locations). They start with the "must plays", a certain number of screens/shows based on forecasts for new releases, plus requests (sometimes demands) from studios for holdovers (Disney is a PITA, and I suspect they're going to try to protect Indy this week as much as possible, but numbers may not let them)

 

Each Monday, said person figures out how many screens are still available after that first allotment, pulls up the past weekend grosses for each location, and starting deciding what gets cut and what can stay, and for how many shows. So say its a 16-plex, getting 6 Barbie and 4 Oppenheimer (including PLF), keeping 2 MI7 and Indy - that leaves just 3 screens left for everything else. Probably also have SOF, Elemental & Insidious split for day/night shows, and then that last screen is whatever can be justified as being kept

But again, it depends on the market and location - going to be big variance between how Elemental (family) and Insidious (young adult) perform, SOF (old, rural) and ATSV (young, city). And NHF is likely preemptively wiped out because of expected direct competition from Barbie

 

Its often a very informal process, dependent on the person and "feel", based on weekend grosses (not admits nor the whole week), holdover forecasts that frankly aren't very good, overall not very scientific ... which IMO leaves a lot of $$ on the table. For example, there were 7 movies that dropped less than 22% per show for this past weekend (based on estimates and Katniss's counts), suggesting there is still some juice left in their runs, but they're all going to see shows get slashed this weekend because room is needed

 

Spoiler

Fuckers should hire me to design some algorithm to better maximize their admissions and BO$

 

 

[JWR]

 

 

[ZackM]

On 7/15/2023 at 12:23 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	51	10	21	39	22
Seats Added	6,296	1,280	2,521	7,493	4,001
Seats Sold	4,706	5,216	4,316	4,255	4,348
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,503	79,000	287,584	27.47%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	19	60	132	220
ATP	Gross
$18.87	$1,490,730

 

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	16	51	10	21	39
Seats Added	2,426	6,296	1,280	2,521	7,493
Seats Sold	5,127	4,706	5,216	4,316	4,255
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	1,519	84,127	290,010	29.01%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	20	70	155	242
ATP	Gross
$18.80	$1,581,588

[ZackM]

On 7/15/2023 at 12:26 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	203	37	117	175	100
Seats Added	25,954	4,350	14,991	28,886	17,738
Seats Sold	11,474	11,477	9,910	9,499	10,100
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,744	121,417	439,568	27.62%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	31	110	259	475
ATP	Gross
$16.26	$1,974,240

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
7/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,411	20,668	93.92%
ATP	Gross
$21.15	$410,543

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	82	203	37	117	175
Seats Added	11,724	25,954	4,350	14,991	28,886
Seats Sold	10,857	11,474	11,477	9,910	9,499
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,826	132,274	451,292	29.31%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	37	128	295	557
ATP	Gross
$16.20	$2,142,839

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,513	20,668	94.41%
ATP	Gross
$21.15	$412,700

 

[Bob-omb]

5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	82	203	37	117	175
Seats Added	11,724	25,954	4,350	14,991	28,886
Seats Sold	10,857	11,474	11,477	9,910	9,499
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	416	2,826	132,274	451,292	29.31%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	37	128	295	557
ATP	Gross
$16.20	$2,142,839

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days
7/15/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	108	108	19,513	20,668	94.41%
ATP	Gross
$21.15	$412,700

 

Oh no, the seats sold decreased by 618!!! and it is the 2nd day dropping it is joever . How much of the market share does this chain represents?

Edited July 16, 2023 by Bob-omb
Added question

[Redolent]

I have the fortune (or otherwise) of living in statistically “the most average town in England”, so thought I’d check Barbenheimer ticket sales for the weekend.

 

Friday: Barbie - 194

            Oppenheimer - 52

 

Saturday: Barbie - 50

                 Oppenheimer - 38

 

Sunday: Barbie - 22

               Oppenheimer - 17

 

What would explain these figures converging/ the Barbie drop from Friday?

[Bob-omb]

4 minutes ago, Redolent said:

I have the fortune (or otherwise) of living in statistically “the most average town in England”, so thought I’d check Barbenheimer ticket sales for the weekend.

 

Friday: Barbie - 194

            Oppenheimer - 52

 

Saturday: Barbie - 50

                 Oppenheimer - 38

 

Sunday: Barbie - 22

               Oppenheimer - 17

 

What would explain these figures converging/ the Barbie drop from Friday?

My opinion is that, in general, the movie is behaving more like a concert event and that is why the rush on sales. The important thing will be to see the GA interest into it. I will watch it on the 2nd-3rd weekend. In my local theater (Norway) Oppenheimer is actually winning by like 20% but the seats are a bit more allocated throghout the weekend and not on the OD (friday here) in contrast with Barbie where the OD is completely full and friday evening is as well. 

Disclaimer: I do not know anything about box office and it is just something that I had picked up recently but I like numbers

Edited July 16, 2023 by Bob-omb
Added disclaimer

[ThatWaluigiDude]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-16	Jax	5	40	-6	34	5,828	0.58%
		Phx	6	59	3	79	8,926	0.89%
		Ral	5	35	0	60	5,055	1.19%
	Total		16	134	-3	173	19,809	0.87%
Turtles (EA)	T-13	Jax	4	6	22	43	384	11.20%
		Phx	1	1	0	15	169	8.88%
		Ral	3	3	8	64	433	14.78%
	Total		8	10	30	122	986	12.37%
	T-15	Jax	5	7	7	63	961	6.56%
		Phx	1	1	5	49	208	23.56%
	Total		7	9	12	112	1,169	9.58%

*One theater in Phx is temporarily closed - I kept yesterday's counts but I can't find anything online about the closing.  

 

 

Turtles (Total) T-16 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .267x (6.12m w/ today's avg)

 - JW3 - .168x (3.021m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.04x (6.47m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.72x (7.99m w/ today's average)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.9m

The first couple of days for TMNT looks healthy or am I wrong?

[vale9001]

28 minutes ago, Redolent said:

I have the fortune (or otherwise) of living in statistically “the most average town in England”, so thought I’d check Barbenheimer ticket sales for the weekend.

 

Friday: Barbie - 194

            Oppenheimer - 52

 

Saturday: Barbie - 50

                 Oppenheimer - 38

 

Sunday: Barbie - 22

               Oppenheimer - 17

 

What would explain these figures converging/ the Barbie drop from Friday?

 

In the US saturday seems strongest than Friday so no. 

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

The first couple of days for TMNT looks healthy or am I wrong?

 

It had the nationwide Fandango $30 off 4 tickets deal on its opening day...so it got a little juice to start its run...

 

I mean, in good news, people were willing to buy/get tickets with the deal...

[poweranimals]

I managed to get a ticket for July 31st for a "fan event". I was surprised it was so early but I'll take it.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

What vs Avatar for Oppy, and maybe BPWF for Barbie (given the holiday Friday), or maybe even TGM (pure previews vs Friday)?

 

Avatar had stronger saturday than friday sales. fyi @ZackM update on 12/9.

 

On 12/9/2022 at 5:22 PM, ZackM said:

 

Friday

Theaters - 438

Showings - 5,351

Sold - 115,362

Total - 990,745

ATP - $18.70   Saturday Theaters - 438 Showings - 5,475 Sold - 125,389 Total - 1,011,525 ATP - $17.36

 

TGM had 2 full days of early previews that had way more shows than what Barbie is having. But Barbie sales are way stronger than TGM thursday at this point.