The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ChipDerby]

32 minutes ago, Driver said:

 

So what's happened to the market since last summer? Dune oughta be tracking at 60 mil at least.

 

Lisa Frankenstein would've done well on streaming. If they wanted theatrical they needed bigger stars. 

 

The thing is, Quorum isn't a tracker.

[Boxofficerules]

Box office is boring lately. What could they have put into this dead zone? Kraven The Hunter maybe?

[AJG]

3 hours ago, Driver said:

 

So what's happened to the market since last summer? Dune oughta be tracking at 60 mil at least.

 

Lisa Frankenstein would've done well on streaming. If they wanted theatrical they needed bigger stars. 

I really like Dune but this tweet sums up the reaction amongst my friends

 

 

‘Dune: Part Two’ To Pick Up Right Where Viewers Fell Asleep During First One https://t.co/Un9B1VdnGO pic.twitter.com/Xr32qgEhnx

— The Onion (@TheOnion) April 26, 2023

[abracadabra1998]

No ISS numbers reported from yesterday, in addition to no separate EA numbers for either Beekeeper or Mean Girls last week

 

What a rotten January so far 😞

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Box office is boring lately. What could they have put into this dead zone? Kraven The Hunter maybe?

 

With Madame Web coming out soon, Sony wouldn't put two weaker superhero films in the market so close together. 

 

Not sure what could have gone here, but, it's worth noting that Disney has nothing in the market for a huge stretch here outside of a couple of Searchlight releases and their Pixar rereleases.

 

When we're down to a handful of studios and there's gaps this big, it's difficult to fill that space.

 

The strike is obviously the biggest culprit here, but Disney's pipeline is clearly smaller than the combined pipelines of the old Fox and Disney combined. And other studios have slowed as well. But all studios want their summer releases, so we still get crowded summers, and dead zones.

 

In other news, Argyle is up for sale on MTC4. So far, it's playing in pretty much every theatre in my broader area for MTC4 with a couple of exceptions.

 

Its getting premium screens, but, limited to just one, except for places that have a ScreenX or 4dx screen, where it's getting that as well.

[filmlover]

Dune 2 is one of my most anticipated of the year but some of the massive predictions that have been going around for it have been...the definition of "setting one's self up for inevitable disappointment."

 

Suspect whatever it makes in March isn't going to be any different than what it would've made in November. The potential is there for a rather unexciting year until possibly June looking at what's coming up (and their potential ceilings) between now and then unless something, anything surprises.

[ChipDerby]

30 minutes ago, AJG said:

I really like Dune but this tweet sums up the reaction amongst my friends

 

 

 

Get better friends.

[WorkingonaName]

34 minutes ago, AJG said:

I really like Dune but this tweet sums up the reaction amongst my friends

 

 

Literally me 

[misterpepp]

Dune 2 on sale Jan 26

 

Hope everyone has a terrific weekend 

[misterpepp]

Kung Fu Panda 4 on sale Feb 9

[misterpepp]

On 1/10/2024 at 1:57 PM, misterpepp said:

Ordinary Angels and Cabrini both go on sale Jan 17. The former will have bonus content on the preview night shows.

 

Forgot to mention, Ordinary Angels ended up moving its on-sale date to Jan 24.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

21 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

Dune 2 on sale Jan 26

 

Hope everyone has a terrific weekend 

 

 

[Speedorito]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Dune 2 is one of my most anticipated of the year but some of the massive predictions that have been going around for it have been...the definition of "setting one's self up for inevitable disappointment."

 

Suspect whatever it makes in March isn't going to be any different than what it would've made in November. The potential is there for a rather unexciting year until possibly June looking at what's coming up (and their potential ceilings) between now and then unless something, anything surprises.

If it stayed in November it would’ve made less than whatever it makes in March. They’ll have the cast (namely Zendaya with 184M followers, Timmy, Florence Pugh, and Austin Butler) to promote it and no real competition until either Ghostbusters or GodzillaxKong.

 

I’m curious to see how it opens though because there’s been a real tug-of-war between “People discovered it during Covid and loved it” and “Everyone I know thought it was boring and dull”

 

I think the tracking will start off red hot due to the fanbase/heavy IMAX push, but I don’t know after that.

[Driver]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

I really like Dune but this tweet sums up the reaction amongst my friends

 

 

 

 

I tend to think Dune is a good test movie. Those who find it boring aren't much for movies. It's not like it's some talky Oscar bait sorta thing, plenty of action & thrills throughout. 

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

If it stayed in November it would’ve made less than whatever it makes in March. They’ll have the cast (namely Zendaya with 184M followers, Timmy, Florence Pugh, and Austin Butler) to promote it and no real competition until either Ghostbusters or GodzillaxKong.

 

I’m curious to see how it opens though because there’s been a real tug-of-war between “People discovered it during Covid and loved it” and “Everyone I know thought it was boring and dull”

 

I think the tracking will start off red hot due to the fanbase/heavy IMAX push, but I don’t know after that.

It should have no problem opening as well as Part 1 did while it was available to watch at home for free via MAX subscription. The truly catastrophic numbers for it - and Godzilla x Kong, for that matter - were to be if they made less than their predecessors did as day-and-date titles.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Box office is boring lately. What could they have put into this dead zone? Kraven The Hunter maybe?

Between school & work resuming, budgets tightening after holiday spending, competing with NFL playoffs, cold & unpredictable weather, and even Awards bumps being mostly neutered, studios are reluctant to release much of consequence/potential in January, especially as the release schedule overall is light and there’s more room in better months 

 

We get an early month horror flick, usually something decent for the MLK holiday weekend, and maybe a low level release that does OK (see Otto, now Beekeeper), but the moderate success action films like say Den of Thieves is probably something that goes in Spring or August (or straight to a streaming platform now). Last year both Plane and Missing grossed $32 mil total, and were the 3rd & 4th highest grossing January releases/expansions. Only Scream, M3G, and soon Mean Girls will break $50 from a January opening post-pandemic 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Dune 2 on sale Jan 26

 

Hope everyone has a terrific weekend 

Not expecting much in the beginning. Thinking early comps will be around $8m with some baked in fanrush 

 

With a similar IM as Dune 2021 I would have my early prediction at $65m OW

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 on sale Feb 9

This one feels like it could really explode. I'm expecting a big start to presales 

Edited January 20 by TheFlatLannister

[misterpepp]

On 1/17/2024 at 11:34 AM, misterpepp said:

Bob Marley tix on sale Jan 21

 

My guy says this might be very late on the 21st, might even be past midnight and into the 22nd on the east coast.

[HummingLemon496]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

I really like Dune but this tweet sums up the reaction amongst my friends

 

 

I would be lying if I said I disagreed with this 

Edited January 20 by HummingLemon496

[dallas]

I've been doing some math with comps and such, and rn I have Dune 2 projected at a $55M opening and Kung Fu Panda 4 at $46M. Obviously both can go up or down, but that's what I'm expecting for the time being.