The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ChiefBrody]

3 hours ago, Eric Web said:

 

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-37: 45.6% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 95% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 59% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 18% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M

So as of right now we’re looking at a $40-$60 million OW?

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Box Office Pro's weekend forecast is also posted:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-demon-slayer-to-the-hashira-training-drive-away-dolls-and-ordinary-angels/

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 25	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pictures	$19,400,000	$78,300,000	-32%
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training	Sony Pictures & Crunchyroll	$9,800,000	$9,800,000	NEW
Madame Web	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$6,300,000	$35,500,000	-59%
Ordinary Angels	Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company	$5,500,000	$5,500,000	NEW
Migration	Universal Pictures & Illumination	$3,100,000	$120,600,000	-19%
Argylle	Universal Pictures	$3,000,000	$41,700,000	-38%
Wonka	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,700,000	$214,700,000	-23%
Drive-Away Dolls	Focus Features	$2,300,000	$2,300,000	NEW
The Beekeeper	MGM	$2,000,000	$63,100,000	-38%
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6	Fathom Events	$1,600,000	$7,400,000	-56%

Madame Web falling under 60% despite coming off a holiday weekend would be hilarious. 
 

It did have the best hold on Tuesday amongst the top 7 though lol. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/19/2024 at 4:47 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Drive-Away Dolls (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	30	15	79	2925	2.7

 

Comps:

0.27x Asteroid City: $300k

0.65x The Iron Claw: $435k

1.04x Ferrari: $450k

 

Average: $395k

 

Ordinary Angels (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	23	4	31	2614	1.19

 

Comps:

0.16x Haunting in Venice: $200k

0.39x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $215k

0.11x Boys on the Boat: $190k

 

Average: $200k

 

Apparently this is being called "Bonus Content" or "Early Access" so I wonder if they'll even report it... why do I do always this to myself  

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Drive-Away Dolls (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	41	40	119	4271	2.79

 

Comps:

0.27x Asteroid City: $300k

0.66x The Iron Claw: $445k

0.74x Ferrari: $320k

 

Average: $355k

 

Let's go with $375k, +/- 25. Big margin of error with these smaller releases though.

 

Ordinary Angels (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	30	26	57	3451	1.65

 

Comps:

0.24x Haunting in Venice: $260k (Switched to Thursday previews comp only)

0.39x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $210k

0.11x Boys on the Boat: $185k

0.71x Journey to Bethlehem: $180k

 

Average: $210k

 

Let's go with $200, +/- 50. Same as above though, with the above caveat that I am still not sure if this is faith-based or not, and might be using same real bad comps. Was mostly going for older-audience targeting comps. We shall see if they even report it.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE BENE:

When I day something like 90/325 wouldn't surprise me it's only because I can see the potential for it to absolutely catch fire.  But the stars would have to align exactly right and it's not something I'm expecting.  At all. 

 

I suppose I am saying it'd have the be a really big outlier to actually surprise me. 

 

 

Right, b/c $102M/$325M will be what Dune 2 does DOM.  I've been trying to get Sean on this bandwagon for a month:)...

 

And to get this on presales, my PLF local did add the 2nd PLF screen to Dune's OW presales...so it's moving up showings/screens early like Barbie...although not as rapidly as Barbie...but we're getting there...

[jeffthehat]

On 2/20/2024 at 4:09 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-9	901	9684	54	+6.6%
Fri	T-10	1326	22401	129	+9.9%
Sat	T-11	1208	23868	144	N/A

 

Thursday Comp

1.51x The Marvels T-9 (10 theaters) = $9.96m

 

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-8	988	11158	62	+9.6%
Fri	T-9	1365	22401	129	+2.9%

Thursday Comps

1.59x The Marvels T-8 (10 theaters) = $10.5m

3.16x Wonka T-8 (10 theaters) = $11.1m 

Friday Comp

1.99x The Marvels T-9 = $29.8m

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
577	5974	109155	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

158

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2389

*50 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(1.307x) of Oppenheimer $13.72M 

(0.577x) of Barbie $12.18M 

(0.866x) of Flash $8.40M 

(2.498x) of Wonka $8.73M 

(2.273x) of Aquaman 2 $10.23M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.65M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
577	6237	109155	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

263

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2469

*80 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.221x) of Oppenheimer $12.83M 

(0.525x) of Barbie $11.07M 

(0.605x) of ATSV $10.50M 

(2.481x) of Wonka $8.68M 

(2.303x) of Aquaman 2 $10.36M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.69M

 

Review bump is here, but nothing crazy. Let's see how it goes tomorrow. Switched Flash comp for ATSV

[HummingLemon496]

I just need $12.0M previews exactly

[DInky]

28 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Review bump is here, but nothing crazy. Let's see how it goes tomorrow. Switched Flash comp for ATSV

 

I never expected positive reviews to do a lot for this film. People already know if they want to see this based on their experience with the first movie. If someone didn't care for the first movie, which also had a pretty high review score, then an additional 10% to the RT score won't move the needle. Basically, everybody who's in was already in a while ago and the same goes for those who plan to sit this one out.

Edited February 22 by DInky

[ando]

Dune: Part Two

 

Toronto Scotiabank Theatre IMAX screen sold another 135 tickets in the past day, a nice bump from the 77 sold the 24 hrs before. Total of 3565 admissions for opening wknd IMAX so far. Weekend is 58% sold out. 

 

Thu- 716

Fri- 901

Sat- 1057

Sun- 891

Edited February 22 by ando

[JustLurking]

I'd very much give it atleast a day, not a handful of hours, before commenting on a review boost.

[von Kenni]

1 minute ago, DInky said:

 

I never expected positive reviews to do a lot for this film. People already know if they want to see this based on their experience with the first movie. If someone didn't care for the first movie, which also had a pretty high review score, then an additional 10% to the RT score won't convince them to see this one. Basically, everybody who's in was already in a while ago and same goes for those who plan to sit this one out in the theaters.

 

I think we can debate as much as we want about the size of the review bump but we shouldn't either overestimate how aware the average or potential audience for Dune is about it. There's so much content coming from all channels for us that the scale is almost unimaginable compared to 10, not to say 20 years ago. So getting a wide spread media coverage in traditional media and social media will definitely help people to be even aware of Part two. But how much that helps in a form of review bump to the comps that are tracked is debatable.

[filmlover]

The reviews for Drive-Away Dolls are rather solid. Since it's obviously doomed to make pennies in theaters, I imagine it's a future cult hit in waiting.

[excel1]

Similar to Oppenheimer, everyone expected this to be good, but reviews at that level will likely push some people that were on the fence. 

[HummingLemon496]

How big was the review bump for ATSV, another movie everyone knew was gonna be good?

[TheFlatLannister]

16 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

How big was the review bump for ATSV, another movie everyone knew was gonna be good?

It was massive, but also came out a day before previews. In Orlando it had a 3k jump

 

Other embargo reviews bumps i've found a week prior to their release:

GOTG: 399 seats sold

Barbie: 566 seats sold

Edited February 22 by TheFlatLannister

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

How big was the review bump for ATSV, another movie everyone knew was gonna be good?

 

46 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It was massive, but also came out a day before previews. In Orlando it had a 3k jump

 

Other embargo reviews bumps i've found a week prior to their release:

GOTG: 399 seats sold

Barbie: 566 seats sold

 

AtSV just had a really solid rampup as well:

 

AtSV Sacto

T-15:	71
T-14:	94
T-13:	83
T-12:	85
T-11:	93
T-10:	154
T-9:	192
T-8:	173
T-7:	263
T-6:	266
T-5:	278
T-4:	370
T-3:	516
T-2:	944
T-1:	1632
T-0:	2709

 

Can see the acceleration start at T-10 and just have a nice incline right up to release.

 

As I check, looks like the social media embargo lift was at T-8 (or so — May 24th according to Google) which is likely why the next major lift occurs at T-7 as word gets out about how amazeballs the film was according to early impressions.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I have just started to look at MTC1 data and so may not post the update tonight. Will update 1st thing in the morning if i dont update tonight. There is definite boost today. I expect boost to be there tomorrow as well and then we are into final week and early shows are also on Sunday. So it should be at higher level going forward(duh). Still finishing as good as Oppenheimer is not easy. Only good thing is final day boost for Oppenheimer was weak due to it being capacity constrained. It had among the weakest T-1 to T-0 boost but weekend sales were really strong as is for Dune 2. Its saturday was pacing lot higher than thursday and so its going to have a strong internal multiplier for sure. 

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (Day 1 *kinda*, T-15):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	21	10	10	1948	0.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		10	10	100
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.71x Night Swim: $1.04 Million

0.32x Thanksgiving: $325k

 

Obviously at 10 tickets sold, do not take any comps seriously. Just wanted to get sheets set up. Also I know it's not a true Day 1 since it went on sale last night, but it's within 24 hours, soooooo it counts? Next update on Sunday, T-11.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

AtSV just had a really solid rampup as well:

 

AtSV Sacto

T-15:	71
T-14:	94
T-13:	83
T-12:	85
T-11:	93
T-10:	154
T-9:	192
T-8:	173
T-7:	263
T-6:	266
T-5:	278
T-4:	370
T-3:	516
T-2:	944
T-1:	1632
T-0:	2709

 

Can see the acceleration start at T-10 and just have a nice incline right up to release.

 

As I check, looks like the social media embargo lift was at T-8 (or so — May 24th according to Google) which is likely why the next major lift occurs at T-7 as word gets out about how amazeballs the film was according to early impressions.

 

 

 

Should also probably add that while Across the Spider-Verse was a CBM (and a sequel to boot) it still was an animated film and thus while it didn't have the same sales pattern as a standard kids-friendly/family film, it was still more backloaded than many similar CBMs.

 

Percentage of sales in last four days— Greater Sacramento Region [T-3 - T-0]

[between 9m and 30m — since May 2021]

 

Spoiler

CBMs

BW        [13.2m]:   49.71%

Eternals [9.5m]:   52.57%

LtBC      [11.6m]:  68.09% [LOL]

Batman [21.6m]:  48.79%

Thor 4   [29m]:    43.64%

BP2       [28m]:     39.68%

AM3      [17.5m]    36.86%

GOTG3 [17.5m]     46.80%

AtSV      [17.35m]: 59.53%

Flash     [9.7m]:     58.78%

 

Animation

Minions 2 [10.75m]: 78.50% [LOLOLLOL]

AtSV         [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Action/Adventure | SciFi

TGM    [19.6m]:  37.86% [Abnormally frontloaded in Sacto]

JWD    [18m]:     51.96%

Ava 2   [17m]:     43.31%

 

Family

TLM    [10.3m]:   53.44%

Barbie [22.3m]:  53.09%

 

Drama

Oppy   [10.5m]:  46.76%

 

Horror

FNAF  [10.3m]:   48.99%

 

If we cut this down to just 10m to 20m it becomes even clearer:

Spoiler

CBMs

BW        [13.2m]:    49.71%

LtBC      [11.6m]:    68.09% [LOL]

AM3      [17.5m]     36.86%

GOTG3 [17.5m]     46.80%

AtSV      [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Animation

Minions 2 [10.75m]: 78.50% [LOLOLLOL]

AtSV         [17.35m]: 59.53%

 

Action/Adventure | SciFi

TGM    [19.6m]:  37.86% [Abnormally frontloaded in Sacto]

JWD    [18m]:     51.96%

Ava 2   [17m]:     43.31%

 

Family

TLM    [10.3m]:   53.44%

 

Drama

Oppy   [10.5m]:  46.76%

 

Horror

FNAF  [10.3m]:   48.99%

 

In the 10m to 20m range, Across the Spider-Verse had the largest amount of sales in the last four days of pre-sales for anything not named Minions 2 or Let There Be Carnage with nothing else being that close.  Admittedly, The Flash at 9.7m is very close (58.78%), but AtSV nearly doubled The Flash's preview number which puts it in to context a bit more.

 

In general, the larger the preview number, the harder it is to have a large percentage at the end, which should make sense.  Not impossible as Barbs still had over 50% of its sales on the MTWTh of release week.  On the other hand, it's also the only one recently to get over 20m to clear it (for example, NWH is at 27.14% of sales in that time period) as it's just so much harder to keep growing at a sustained rate from a higher base.

 

Likewise, the smaller the preview number, the easier it is to have a large percentage at the end of pre-sales (again, for instance, The Marvels had 54.05% of its sales in the M-Th of release week, and, well...).   That's why I put cutoffs at the 9m and then 10m range as it the point I'm making gets distorted if the preview number gets too low.  

 

Another factor, which I didn't include, is length of pre-sales as, obviously, it's easier to have more sales at the end if sales haven't been going on for over a month.  And of course things like holidays and review drops can also distort things a little. 

 

But the overall patterns should still be clear.  Or at least clear-ish.

 

Anyway, all of the above is to point out that while, yes, AtSV was a CBM it didn't have the sales pattern like one.  Not completely, at any rate.

Edited February 22 by Porthos

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-8

Tickets Sold: 163

Growth: 11%

% PLF: 48%

5 theaters/29 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.116x) of Aquaman 2 - $5.02 Million

(1.734x) of Madame Web - $10.49 Million

(7.762x) of Argylle - $13.20 Million

COMPS AVG - $9.57 Million

 

Solid growth due to reviews, but a bit less than what I was hoping for. Side note: the more movies I track, the more I realize how much Aquaman 2 over indexed in my area LOL. It seems like $10M previews is the target here, I'm hoping it hits $12M, though it's gonna take a hit to reach that point.