The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

45 minutes ago, M37 said:

Depends on the context. MCU films for example have weaker walk-ups, because so much of the audience pre-buys, whereas something like John Wick 4 had very strong walk-ups, because the audience had a larger share of casuals/GA/action people who buy much later including day of the show

 

It’s not a criticism of Dune or it’s appeal to say walk-ups/pace will be lower, just an expectation that it will be closer to the fan-heavy films (in range of Avatar 2), in that it’s audience is more likely to buy early than late 

 

JW4 has strong "walk ups" from $5 deal users. It's why it's also a bad comp.  Walk ups for movies that appeal to $5 goers (which something like Margaret last year did not), always have better "walk ups" than similar movies due to the "$5, what the hell" eventual factor...you can buy your ticket literally 10-15 minutes after movie showing start with the deal...and most trackers stop tracking at 1st preview movie showing of the day...so you miss all those late online, but not presale, buyers...not true walk ups, but in walk ups.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-6 Thursday previews and T-2 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 655

New Sales: 46

Growth: 7.6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 10/11

Early Evening: 477/21

Late Evening: 168/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 171/8

IMAX: 323/4

VIP: 141/12

Regular: 7/21

4dx: 13/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.433 of Marvels for $9.5M

2.873 of HG: BoSS for $16.5M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 610

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 37

Growth: 6.5%

 

I tried to see if I could do any better with comps, but nothing jumps out as more suitable. At this stage, the growth has been largely consistent, and everything else I have that might be suitable had a shorter cycle and a steeper curve.

 

One thing worth noting, is that since Wednesday when 25 new showtimes were added, 20 of those have seen zero sales. The other 5 have sold just 20 of the 146 new tickets sold in that time frame. 

 

It leaves plenty of capacity for walk-ups, but I suspect that there's going to be a lot of empty capacity here, while the IMAX theatres are sold out. 

 

I imagine a lot of contradicting personal anecdotes are coming, of some talking about watching this in a packed house, and others watching in empty theatres.

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-5 Thursday previews and T-1 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 712

New Sales: 57

Growth: 8.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 13/11

Early Evening: 503/21

Late Evening: 196/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 179/8

IMAX: 359/4

VIP: 153/12

Regular: 12/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.462 of Marvels for $9.6M

2.859 of HG: BoSS for $16.4M

 

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 647

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 37

Growth: 6.1%

 

Preview shows maintaining the same growth patterns basically. Going up slightly, but this where you'd expect it. 

 

EA shows are pretty much near sellouts. Were down to first few front rows. I would expect that these may fill out over the course of the day. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-13 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 54

New Sales: 6

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 39/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.250x Wonka for $7.9M

 

Steady drip continues.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-12 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 54

New Sales: 6

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 39/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.077x Wonka for $7.3M

 

Zero sales day. Not much to really report.

[JustWatching]

6 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

Dune has seemingly followed a pretty standard tracking pattern at this point. I’m a bit confused by the discourse around it. There don’t seem to be many surprises.

 

The last wrinkle I can see happening in tracking is if audiences tonight love the EA as much as critics, which leads to a wave of them buying a second set of tickets for OW/Thursday previews. Will be interesting if there is a noticeable bump on Monday.

 

Tickets around me (sizeable Midwest city) seem to follow the same pattern as almost everywhere else: PLF selling like hotcakes, other screens have plenty of availability. One thing Dune 2 has going for it is the huge number of screens theaters (at least near me) are giving it.

Yeah, Midwest here as well, same pattern mostly. The local cinemark, which has no PLFs, is dead. 30 tix sold for the entire weekend, including previews. Up the road at Emagine, the standard showings have fared no better. The EMX screens are selling, but there’s only one on Thursday and one Friday that are anywhere near selling out. Looks super fan driven at this point.

[M37]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Aquaman 2 is a bad comp. It did not have all PLF - it had to split normal PLF with Wonka and even gave Screen X to Migration.

 

So, the average ticket price is just not gonna compare, even if overall ticket sales do.

Even a “bad comp” can be useful, here I specifically used Aquaman 2 for pace purpose only and then comped to Oppy for value in this market 

 

But interestingly enough, they had a nearly identical PSM for this market ($2010/tix vs $2004), likely because PLF demand for Oppy exceeded capacity, limiting Thursday sales and pushing them into weekend, while Aquaman 2 buyers took whatever, but just naturally underindexed for this market. If anything, those comps might slightly overvalue Dune II if Orlando sees more of a standard index for it 

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

Even a “bad comp” can be useful, here I specifically used Aquaman 2 for pace purpose only and then comped to Oppy for value in this market 

 

But interestingly enough, they had a nearly identical PSM for this market ($2010/tix vs $2004), likely because PLF demand for Oppy exceeded capacity, limiting Thursday sales and pushing them into weekend, while Aquaman 2 buyers took whatever, but just naturally underindexed for this market. If anything, those comps might slightly overvalue Dune II if Orlando sees more of a standard index for it 

 

Oppy also is a "bad" comp for ticket value b/c it also did NOT have all PLF...Barbie had all Dolby and pretty much any PLF not named IMAX.  To get value, you have to use a movie that got ALL PLF, not half or less...

[vafrow]

From my vantage point, Dune 2 has been remarkably unremarkable in its growth. In my tracking, I don't think it's had a bad day, but I don't think it's had a great day. Just steady, single digit daily growth.

 

I also have been wondering about the advertising here. I don't like putting too much stock in ads seen because it's so anecdotal, but, I really haven't seen a lot advertised on this. I was watching a hockey game last night, and, if you have a big film being advertised in Canada, Saturday broadcast is where the eyeballs are.

 

It feels like WB has assessed that this isn't a franchise that's going to go much beyond it's core audience, and they're focused on that audience. I know there's a big premiere event happening in Montreal with Chalamet and Villeneuve appearing at. Watching some subreddits, core fans are going crazy trying to secure tickets.

 

My worry is that if Dune can't break out of its box, there's a lot of big films this year that will have similar challenges. Planet of the Apes and Furiosa are the two that concern me. 

[iEnri]

Dune Part 1 has already gone beyond its core audience internationally, it was one of the biggest movies of 2021 in multiple Europe markets including UK. And was pretty big in Canada as well.

 

A movie with a projected 80M opening can't be only fan driven, specially one that made 300M internationally during pandemic. Dune doesn't have such a massive fanbase like Marvel, math is not adding up. Dune fans alone can't make a movie open with 80M. Part of the general audience will watch this movie, it is not black or white in either a 100% or 0% interest from the GP.

Edited February 25 by iEnri

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Oppy also is a "bad" comp for ticket value b/c it also did NOT have all PLF...Barbie had all Dolby and pretty much any PLF not named IMAX.  To get value, you have to use a movie that got ALL PLF, not half or less...

It’s interesting the approach of different countries. Barbie had no PLF at all here opening weekend. Still ended up grossing £30m more than Oppenheimer in the end. Makes it even more impressive. 

[filmlover]

True Sci-Fi has always had a relative ceiling as to just how much widespread appeal the genre has.

 

Even the combination of Denis fresh off of Arrival, Gosling fresh off of La La Land, and the return of Ford wasn't enough to get Blade Runner 2049 to the $100M mark not too long ago.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/23/2024 at 7:46 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune Early Shows in Canada

 

Cineplex - 6165/7837 on 24 shows

Landmark - 1185/1419 on 5 shows

Independent - 388/395 on 2 showx

 

These are what I know. May be missing some independent. 7.7K ish seat sold so far, will probably add another 1K for 9K+ final aka $170K.

 

Edit: There are Mega-plex cinemas in Quebec. They don't have reserved seating so can't say. Take $200K Canada I guess.

Dune Early Shows in Canada at 11AM EST

 

Cineplex - 6779/7837 on 24 shows

Landmark - 1257/1419 on 5 shows

Independent - I didn't check but take 395

 

8431 in these 31 locs. This should be around $150K+. There are another 1200 seats to fill, which I guess say 600-700 may get sold, give or take $160-165K.

 

There are 5-6 more locs (some having 2 shows) that I know, there may be some other.

Edited February 25 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Early Shows(2/25) - 43763/55706 849027.99 182 shows +3073

Is this 182 locs as well or those are less? There are 360 IMAX locs in United States. Total shows may be 350 range I guess. Taking 50K final tix, gross be around $900K I guess. 

[charlie Jatinder]

406 locs in North America today. Of this 40 in Canada, leaving 366 for US.

[Boxofficerules]

When we going to discover just how much better Imaginary is outselling Dune Part 2 and Kung Fool Panda 3?

[dallas]

2 hours ago, iEnri said:

A movie with a projected 80M opening can't be only fan driven.

I hate to be that guy, but FNAF. 

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

When we going to discover just how much better Imaginary is outselling Dune Part 2 and Kung Fool Panda 3?

Dude, the bit's old. Just no.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

I hate to be that guy, but FNAF. 

Yeah might want to check the legs on that. I assume Dune has a bigger fanbase but I don't think we want it to follow Freddie's legs. 

[iEnri]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah might want to check the legs on that. I assume Dune has a bigger fanbase but I don't think we want it to follow Freddie's legs. 

Dune already has a Part 1 which was not that fan driven, it had decent legs in the USA and fantastic legs internationally

Edited February 25 by iEnri

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

This Dune legs discussion seems more appropriate to the actual Dune 2 thread, no? We should move the convo over there.

[Johnny Tran]

31 minutes ago, dallas said:

I hate to be that guy, but FNAF. 

 

Tough comparison there. Wasn't FNAF also released on Peacock the week it came out?  

 

I expect Dune Part 2 to have a nice opening but better legs.  I think there will be some repeat viewings and maybe more importantly, there is nothing on the calendar that's going to eat into it.  It has a great release date.