The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Godzilla/Kong mvoies are critic proof if any film is.

I have no doubt the human charecters are pretty boring and cliched as hell, but people don't buy tickets to see that. They go to see The Big Guys destory stuff and beat u pon other monasters and each other.

I don’t think it really matters in general, it’s mostly about SH movies 

 

Ghostbusters just had tepid reviews and it did better than expected. Dominion and ROTB the same thing and both gad great walkup business 

 

For a movie like this the worse it can do is maybe not getting a bigger bump in this cycle of presales, but even that probably just leads to a bigger bump on final day imo. It should be fine

[misterpepp]

The Mummy 25th anniversary re-release opens April 26. This is a full re-release, not a one-night-only thing. Will keep an eye on the ticket date.

Edited March 27 by misterpepp

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Godzilla/Kong mvoies are critic proof if any film is.

I have no doubt the human charecters are pretty boring and cliched as hell, but people don't buy tickets to see that. They go to see The Big Guys destory stuff and beat u pon other monasters and each other.

 

Now this just isn't true.  KotM took a hit in my tracking when reviews dropped (dropped about a 1m or so for Thr previews) and our very own @Shawn Robbins noted in his recap at the time that KotM came in at the conservative end of projections:

 

Quote

Saturday Update: Warner Bros.’ Godzilla: King of the Monsters took in $19.605 million domestically on opening day Friday, including Thursday night’s $6.3 million start. With a weekend now pacing for the upper $40 million range, and possible upside toward $50 million, these results line up with conservative expectations in recent months following lukewarm reviews and concern over audience goodwill from 2014’s direct predecessor.

 

Looking at opening day, KOTM‘s take registered 18 percent ahead of The Meg ($16.6 million), 3 percent behind Kong: Skull Island ($20.14 million), 8 percent ahead of San Andreas ($18.15 million), and 49 percent behind Godzilla (2014)‘s $38.4 million. The film played largely to males (67 percent) and those aged 25 and up (59 percent), according to the studio. The film’s Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score is encouraging at 88 percent this morning, despite a 40 percent score from critics.

(saw this earlier today when I was looking for AAPI demo info on Godzilla films, ftr)

 

What is true is that they don't necessarily take *AS MUCH* of a hit.  But even here, what the reviews say matters.  If the negative reviews say the monster fights are a boring slog where it's hard to see what happens, you can bet your sweet bippy that'll hurt much more than reviews complaining about paper thin plots and characterizations even if the RT/Metacritic scores are broadly the same.

 

Once again I think we should give the GA a tiny bit more credit in how they consume RT/Metacritic/IMDB and the like.  Yes, they place too much weight on the overall score at all three places (and others).  But they are still a little bit more discerning than I think is given credit for, especially for popcorn movies like this one.

Edited March 27 by Porthos

[ChiefBrody]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Now this just isn't true.  KotM took a hit in my tracking when reviews dropped (dropped about a 1m or so for Thr previews) and our very own @Shawn Robbins noted in his recap at the time that KotM came in at the conservative end of projections:

 

(saw this earlier today when I was looking for AAPI demo info on Godzilla films, ftr)

 

What is true is that they don't necessarily take *AS MUCH* of a hit.  But even here, what the reviews say matters.  If the negative reviews say the monster fights are a boring slog where it's hard to see what happens, you can bet your sweet bippy that'll hurt much more than reviews complaining about paper thin plots and characterizations even if the RT/Metacritic scores are broadly the same.

 

Once again I think we should give the GA a tiny bit more credit in how they consume RT/Metacritic/IMDB and the like.  Yes, they place too much weight on the overall score at all three places (and others).  But they are still a little bit more discerning than I think is given credit for, especially for popcorn movies like this one.

How was KOTM tracking before the reviews dropped? 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

How was KOTM tracking before the reviews dropped? 

 

For previews (which is what I concern myself with) in Sacramento it was tracking at a near perfect 1:2 ratio against JWFK, or about 7.5m-ish, give or take (have to go through the relevant thread to pull the exact numbers but I recall it bouncing around inside the 7s). 

 

Reviews came out and momentum just stalled and it ended up at 6.3m

Edited March 28 by Porthos

[ChiefBrody]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

For previews (which is what I concern myself with) in Sacramento it was tracking at a near perfect 1:2 ratio against JWFK, or about 7.5m-ish, give or take (have to go through the relevant thread to pull the exact numbers but I recall it bouncing around inside the 7s). 

 

Reviews came out and momentum just stalled and it ended up at 6.3m

Should GxK continue its trajectory and have a really good OW it would be fascinating to go back and look at what all happened with KOTM and why that one disappointed compared to the rest of the MonsterVerse 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, ChiefBrody said:

Should GxK continue its trajectory and have a really good OW it would be fascinating to go back and look at what all happened with KOTM and why that one disappointed compared to the rest of the MonsterVerse 

 

Not the thread to go deeply (or, really at all) into this, but...

 

57 minutes ago, Porthos said:

But even here, what the reviews say matters.  If the negative reviews say the monster fights are a boring slog where it's hard to see what happens, you can bet your sweet bippy that'll hurt much more than reviews complaining about paper thin plots and characterizations even if the RT/Metacritic scores are broadly the same.

 

I might have been making a half-recollected piece of commentary about KotM... 

 

Just might, mind. 

 

(again, not really the thread for such things)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/26/2024 at 8:07 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
644	6803	128867	5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1196

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.676x) of Dune 2 $6.29M  

(1.212x) of Ghostbusters $5.70M  

(1.999x) of Mean Girls $6.60M  

Comps average: $6.20M 

 

Really strong pace continues. If this keeps up, Florida will be over $7M by T-0

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
713	8121	143526	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1318

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.708x) of Dune 2 $6.58M  

(1.212x) of Ghostbusters $5.70M  

(2.681x) of KFP4 $10.18M  

Comps average: $7.49M 

 

Surely going to be over $8M by tomorrow's check. A phenomenal day all around

[Minnale101]

The reviews in South Korea seem fine, so if it has same reception everywhere else, should be huge success 

[JimmyB]

Critic reviews cant hurt pre-sales if you dont allow critic reviews until day of release.

 

WB

 

[Derpity]

31 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

G x K: The New Empire

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
713	8121	143526	5.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1318

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.708x) of Dune 2 $6.58M  

(1.212x) of Ghostbusters $5.70M  

(2.681x) of KFP4 $10.18M  

Comps average: $7.49M 

 

Surely going to be over $8M by tomorrow's check. A phenomenal day all around

 

It rose so much bc of the switched comps, Dune and Ghostbusters didn't move much lol

[Bob Train]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire — Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	188	22462	24760	2298	9.28%

 

Total Showings Added Today	16
Total Seats Added Today	841
Total Seats Sold Today	445

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	89.45		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	51.13%		7.69m
Wick 4	71.83		552	3199		0/166	17433/20632	15.51%		5448	42.18%		6.39m
Fast X	96.43		327	2383		0/235	30517/32900	7.24%		4122	55.75%		7.23m
AtSV	42.53		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	23.58%		7.38m
RotB	91.85		524	2502		0/183	22360/24862	10.06%		9744	23.58%		8.08m
FNAF	54.45		524	4220		0/235	23745/27965	15.09%		6466	35.54%		5.61m
BOSS	146.09		265	1573		0/136	15613/17186	9.15%		2701	85.08%		8.40m
GBFE	191.02		223	1203		0/201	27252/28455	4.23%		2197	104.60%		8.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Godzilla x Kong's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       557/8482  [6.57% sold]
Matinee:    113/2416  [4.68% | 4.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:            313/5209  [6.01% | 13.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1272/9733  [13.07% | 55.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Still showing growth on the sub 8m comps, but the trio of 8m+ comps I do have were a bit more mixed.  RotB fell a tiny amount, while BOSS and GBFE rose a tad.  But the later two under-performed locally, so who knows.  Most hopeful comp, I think, is Black Adam which rose a decent amount.

 

All in all, might be converging on 8m, but the error bars are still in play, I think.  Shame about reviews being day-of, but whatcha gonna do.

 

Not much else to add which hasn't already been said, so I'll leave it there for now.

RotB final sold block seems incorrect

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

The Mummy 25th anniversary re-release opens April 26. This is a full re-release, not a one-night-only thing. Will keep an eye on the ticket date.

Nice! Dig that we're getting all these re-releases at the same time.

[misterpepp]

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare tix on sale April 2

 

Early access shows play April 13

Edited March 28 by misterpepp

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Derpity said:

 

It rose so much bc of the switched comps, Dune and Ghostbusters didn't move much lol

Dune comp went up by $300k in one day 

That's pretty good I would say 

Edited March 28 by TheFlatLannister

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

03/28/24

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - 187 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

0.51x of Dune: Part Two ($4.75M)

0.55x of Bob Marley: One Love ($7.68M)

1.15x of Madame Web ($6.98M)

1.53x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($7.20M)

1.78x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($6.77M)

4.07x of The Beekeeper ($9.76M)

AVERAGE: $7.19M

 

Really wasn't sure what to run with since I didn't have a super walkup-heavy GA blockbuster to comp with yet, so I threw in basically all my decent sized walkup heavy comps plus Dune for good measure. Did notice a massive skew towards my AMC compared to the Emagine theater I track (157 at AMC, but only 30 at Emagine), which was most closely matched with KFP4 (85 at AMC, 20 at Emagine). Dune is kinda a bad comp here since it skewed heavily in the opposite direction due to my Emagine having a 70mm screen, so the average without it is $7.68M. Overall, looks like it sold decently here.

 

Edited March 28 by Relevation

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

RotB final sold block seems incorrect

friggin copy-n-paste.

(thanks for the heads up)

 

Fixed in that post and future ones, but not gonna bother with prior posts.

[HummingLemon496]

Key somehow perfectly guessed Dune's opening weekend and domestic based on a day or so of EA sales so I'll trust his mid 60s prediction for GXK

Edited March 28 by HummingLemon496

[Unfitclock]

The weird thing is though that they announced like three movies that were going to theaters after the whole roadhouse situation the one with George Clooney and Brad Pitt, the one with Channing Tatum and scarlet Johansson and the one with Chris Evan’s and Dwayne Johnson

[keysersoze123]

On 3/26/2024 at 10:04 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 69155/640680 1297769.61 3491 shows +10487

Friday - 80734/1083696 1441303.64 6044 shows +16099

 

Flattish day for previews. Not surprised after how things went yesterday and lack of any catalyst. Friday did go up a bit and I feel good about 20m+ True Friday or even more once we get to gauge walkups on thursday. I am still feeling good about my prediction yesterday.  

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 85565/646340 1580924.03 3534 shows +16410

Friday - 102461/1097919 1804552.17 6145 shows +21727

 

Strong day for sure. 4x from T-1 PS takes it to ~150K and 5x to ~165k ish finish. ~8-9m previews is in play. 

 

Friday should hit 160k ish by tomorrow night and hit 320-350K finish. High end could take it to 25m True Friday and 75m+ OW as @M37 had predicted yesterday. I think even @charlie Jatinder post about beating Dune 2 OW is in play. 

 

Edited March 28 by keysersoze123