The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-8	Jax	5	10	6	6	1,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	12	11	11	1,681	0.65%
		Ral	5	11	1	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	18	18	4,283	0.42%
Monkey Man	T-8	Jax	6	18	0	13	3,006	0.43%
		Phx	6	14	7	41	1,683	2.44%
		Ral	7	14	1	27	1,840	1.47%
	Total		19	46	8	81	6,529	1.24%
Someone Like You	T-6	Jax	5	10	-3	48	892	5.38%
		Phx	6	12	0	2	1,316	0.15%
		Ral	6	15	0	19	1,213	1.57%
	Total		17	37	-3	69	3,421	2.02%

 

Monkey Man T-8 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - .976x (1.1m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .54x (1.08m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .415x (1.29m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.23x (1.35m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .426x (1.31m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .256x (1.21m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.22m

 

Someone Like You T-6 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .437x (326k)

 - Respect (Total) - .276x (190k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .113x (208k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .221x (281k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 346k

 

First Omen T-8 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .486x (606k)

 - Last Voyage - .5x (375k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.5x (1.53m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
First Omen	T-7	Jax	5	10	0	6	1,366	0.44%
		Phx	6	12	0	11	1,681	0.65%
		Ral	5	11	0	1	1,236	0.08%
	Total		16	33	0	18	4,283	0.42%
Monkey Man	T-7	Jax	6	18	4	17	3,006	0.57%
		Phx	6	14	2	43	1,683	2.55%
		Ral	7	14	2	29	1,840	1.58%
	Total		19	46	8	89	6,529	1.36%
Someone Like You	T-5	Jax	5	10	2	50	892	5.61%
		Phx	6	12	3	5	1,316	0.38%
		Ral	6	15	2	21	1,213	1.73%
	Total		17	37	7	76	3,421	2.22%

 

Monkey Man T-7 adjusted comps

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Cocaine Bear - .54x (1.08m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .403x (1.25m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.113x (1.22m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .412x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .249x (1.17m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.22m

 

Someone Like You T-5 adjusted comps

- I Wanna Dance - .444x (332k)

 - Respect (Total) - .243x (167k)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - .11x (204k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .202x (257k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 356k

 

First Omen T-7 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .4x (498k)

 - Last Voyage - .36x (270k)

- Don't Breathe 2 - 1.2x (1.23m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-15	Jax	5	34	2	17	6,188	0.27%
		Phx	6	19	0	22	4,009	0.55%
		Ral	6	20	3	26	2,899	0.90%
	Total		17	73	5	65	13,096	0.50%

 

T-15 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .15x (1.17m)

 - Elvis - .361x (1.395m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.102x (4.19m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Civil War	T-14	Jax	5	34	4	21	6,188	0.34%
		Phx	6	19	12	34	4,009	0.85%
		Ral	6	20	0	26	2,899	0.90%
	Total		17	73	16	81	13,096	0.62%

 

T-14 adjusted comps

 - NTTD (Total) - .172x (1.35m)

 - Elvis - .42x (1.62m)

 - Equalizer 3 - 1.08x (4.1m)

 

*No EA shows in the theaters I track

[BadOlCatSylvester]

37 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

A root canal is better than re-watching Jurassic World.

As a dentistry student who has only seen Dominion out of those movies, you're likely right. And that's scary.

[M37]

Right now, would probably take a slight under on $9M, mostly due to MTC1, which I can’t reasonably forecast over a 145K final, though probably underindexes here because of demos and Spring/Work break

 

so like $8.9M +\- $0.5M, on the higher end of range, pending walk-ups today. Very curious in Miami in particular 

[abracadabra1998]

Having some big FOMO not being able to track the final days for this one  awesome stuff though!

[el sid]

Since almost 1 hour I try to count but see nothing but error reports for GxK...

On the one hand that's a good sign because this normally only happens with a lot of traffic, OTOH I hope it vanishes later in the day...

[katnisscinnaplex]

30 minutes ago, el sid said:

Since almost 1 hour I try to count but see nothing but error reports for GxK...

On the one hand that's a good sign because this normally only happens with a lot of traffic, OTOH I hope it vanishes later in the day...

Fandango hasn't been working for me in the last hour either.  Hopefully it's because of traffic!

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Godzilla x Kong	PLF	31	454	2,088	7,480	27.91%
		Standard	70	479	1,149	8,153	14.09%
	Total		101	933	3,237	15,633	20.71%

 

T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Jurassic World 3 - .362x (6.52m) 

 - Top Gun 2 - .633x (9.3m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.606x (9.64m)

 - Avatar 2 - .576x (9.79m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 3.4x (14.96m)

 - Morbius - 1.643x (9.37m)

 - Batman (Total) - .408x (8.82m)

 - Dune 2 - 1.5x (13.875m)

 

Jurassic World over-indexed in Santikos so I'm thinking this one probably will too.  Since these are unadjusted, I could see anywhere from 8m to 9m depending on how much this over-indexes. 

Edited March 28 by katnisscinnaplex
Added Dune 2 comp

[emoviefan]

I hope the reviews are not terrible. I kind of hate it when really badly reviewed movies explode then all we hear is yeah screw all those snooty critics for not getting it. 

[M37]

36 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Fandango hasn't been working for me in the last hour either.  Hopefully it's because of traffic!

Fandango app just game me a notification about pre-ordering food with purchase (at select theaters) so it may have been an upgrade rather than traffic issue 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Fandango app just game me a notification about pre-ordering food with purchase (at select theaters) so it may have been an upgrade rather than traffic issue 

Could be.  They've had that banner for a week or two but maybe they are updating something with it

[vafrow]

MTC4 site is down right now, so I can't run a noon update. They've just been having system issues over the past month. 

 

[jeffthehat]

On 3/26/2024 at 5:27 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-2

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	957	11858	68
Fri	1708	21541	114

Thu Comps

1.17x Ghostbusters FE = $5.5m

0.60x Dune 2 = $6.0m

Fri Comp

0.67x Dune 2 = $15.0m

 

THU AVG = $5.75m

---

Thursday comps rose but not by a ton. +17.6% growth on the day. Friday growth a lot better though. 

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	1516	11858	68

Thu Comps

1.18x Ghostbusters FE T-0 = $5.6m

0.67x Dune 2 T-0 = $6.7m

1.17x HG BoSS T-0 (10 theater) = $6.7m

1.14x Marvels T-0 (10 theater) = $7.5m

2.60x Wonka T-0 (10 theater) = $9.2m

 

THU AVG = $7.14m

---

Adding 10 theater comps brings the average up here. Overall the data I've got from Malco and Indiana hasn't seemed strong, suggesting weakness in the midwest/south for this. But like M37 said, releases from the past 6 months have skewed frontloaded/fan-driven. And I've only been tracking for that long. So could just be a mirage. Def interested to see where this ends up. 

[ThomasNicole]

Reviews for Godzilla dropping 

 

52 on MC (vs 59 of the previous one) 

74% on RT with 47 reviews 

 

If it goes rotten from now shouldn’t be by much, so it shouldn’t hurt presales or walkups.

 

now let’s wait

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reviews for Godzilla dropping 

 

52 on MC (vs 59 of the previous one) 

74% on RT with 47 reviews 

 

If it goes rotten from now shouldn’t be by much, so it shouldn’t hurt presales or walkups.

 

now let’s wait

I'm so nervous. 😭

[el sid]

It worked again for me so hopefully it's back everywhere soon.

 

GxK, counted today for today had 2.015 sold tickets. Still pretty even sales, doing best in the AMCs in LA and NY.

Up ok 40% since Tuesday.

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.294 sold tickets = 5.8M (slightly up since Tuesday).

Meg 2 (3.2M) had 586 = 11M (down 2.6M since Tuesday but I expected worse).

D&D (4.1M Thursday only) had 1.265 = 6.5M (down).

JWD (18M) had 4.342 = 8.35M (up).

Godzilla Minus One (2.1M from Wed+Thu, 1.1M on Thursday?) had 285 = 7.75M (up).

65 (1.22M) had 300 = 8.2M (no comp on Tuesday).

And BT (4.6M) had 1.000 sold tickets = 9.25M (also no comp on Tuesday).

Average: 8.1M. Two days ago the average was higher (8.8M) but that was mostly due to the very high Meg 2 comp. I hope its reviews stay decent and predict 8.1M.

Edited March 28 by el sid

[misterpepp]

15 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare tix on sale April 2

 

Heads up: this may end up being another late night Lionsgate ticket drop. Maybe around 9pm PST Apr 2/Midnight EST Apr 3.

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Reviews for Godzilla dropping 

 

52 on MC (vs 59 of the previous one) 

74% on RT with 47 reviews 

 

If it goes rotten from now shouldn’t be by much, so it shouldn’t hurt presales or walkups.

 

now let’s wait

 

Currently at 60% after 74 reviews (might be at 64% coz lol RT's servers during Tomato Watch forever and always amen).

 

....

 

For that matter LOL WB for waiting so long to drop reviews if it really is gonna be borderline fresh/rotten.  They could have easily dropped them on Tue without skipping a beat (IMO),

[SpiderByte]

It was always gonna be kinda in Minus Ones shadow review wise

[THUNDER BIRD]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Currently at 60% after 74 reviews (might be at 64% coz lol RT's servers during Tomato Watch forever and always amen).

 

....

 

For that matter LOL WB for waiting so long to drop reviews if it really is gonna be borderline fresh/rotten.  They could have easily dropped them on Tue without skipping a beat (IMO),

I think with Top Critics not liking it at all, they didn't want to risk it.