The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

On 3/19/2024 at 9:30 AM, M37 said:

Expected MTC1 targets for GBFE

 

T-3 = 36K (current)

T-2 = ~41K (+5K)

T-1 = ~49K (+8K)

T-F = ~79K (+30K)

 

That would be +120% growth through finish, on pace with the Wonka/Aqua2/JWD grouping it has been tracking very steadily (both GBFE and Wonka are exactly +39.9% from T-7 to T-3), and slightly below the Mermaid/ATSV/Fast X range (+135%). The final day (T-1 to T-F) should be under +70% growth, expected around +62% (or +67% if it follows the Mermaid grouping). Only true family films (like KFP4) and horror finish stronger than that for Thursday. Around 80K total tickets would suggest a $4.5M preview total

 

Maybe a $5 T-Mobile burst - which should be evident if next two days are exceeding the targets above - coupled with a higher PSM (lower MTC1 index) can get all the way to $5M, but I'm fairly skeptical. 

 

From my vantage point, $4.5M +/- $0.3 seems to be the trajectory, though with a lower confidence level/higher uncertainty than usual

Had a better Tue in MTC1 than baseline, likely from T-Mobile deal, then meh reviews seems to zap that momentum over the final two days. Only +59% final day, slightly below the expected range. Skimming through the totality of tracking reports, would probably take the over on the $4.5M, but within in the +$0.3 range

 

Friday sales vs Wonka suggest ~$11.5M (~$16M total OD), but lower (often much) against a few other comps (that I'm not overly fond of) but higher against pure family movies.  Plus there are still Spring Breaks, but reviews may continue to drag down walk-up rate, so that's more of ballpark figure than a true projection. Might be just enough to squeak over $40M, roughly 8.5-9.0x IM range, keep the streak alive

[el sid]

A little supplement from yesterday. Due to my problems with the PC the short version:

 

Immaculate had yesterday for yesterday quite good 237 sold tickets in my 7 theaters. Doing best - to my surprise - in the AMCs in San Francisco and LA.

 

The average compare to Prey for the Devil, The Pope's Exorcist, Cabrini and The Last Voyage of the Demeter was 850k from previews for Immaculate.

Because it's probably too dark and too much of a niche film and it looks worse for the film in all other reports here I would lower the prediction a little bit but maybe it can reach the presale number (660k) of Prey for the Devil.

Edited March 22 by el sid

[filmlover]

Not movie news but:

 

 

Wonder how that's going to work out since that's the weekend Deadpool & Wolverine opens.

[Shawn Robbins]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews - 6222/138521 116422.56 982 shows

Friday - 3782/243527 68875.02 1680 shows

 

This is as of the morning. I had to go out and so could not put it out. There is not much of a pace for this movie. around 200 tics per day for previews and 150-170 for Friday. Probably will not sell much until release week. Looking at @Shawn Robbins prediction above, seems bit too optimistic. That said I hope I am wrong and it finishes very strong and does over 20m OW. For now I would be happy with double digits OW. 

I was tempted to pull it back a little more, but giving it a chance to be a little backloaded since it's an original film with two male-heavy films crowding the sales market before it. I'm actually pretty encouraged with where it's tracking under those circumstances but we'll see how it plays out after GxK and Easter.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

I was tempted to pull it back a little more, but giving it a chance to be a little backloaded since it's an original film with two male-heavy films crowding the sales market before it. I'm actually pretty encouraged with where it's tracking under those circumstances but we'll see how it plays out after GxK and Easter.

(Though to add, the pinpoint is on the low end of the range.)

[filmlover]

Imagine Monkey Man will make a killing on streaming (its original destination, ironically enough) even if its theatrical run ends up doing only okay.

[MightyDargon]

Does Monkey Man have a Netflix deal?

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

Does Monkey Man have a Netflix deal?

It was originally going to be a Netflix release until Peele bought the movie from them and promoted it to a theatrical release via his Universal deal.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/15/2024 at 10:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,332	93,860	-8.42%	78,060	481.23	15,800	0	11,513
Dune: Part Two	3,208	59,302	-20.95%	51,363	616.02	7,939	3,813	0
Arthur the King	2,851	46,715		46,615		100	0	0
Imaginary	2,737	35,732	-13.37%	35,728	213.97	4	0	0
Cabrini	2,615	26,472	-25.01%	26,450	181.79	22	0	0
Bob Marley: One Love	1,957	20,489	-30.65%	20,416	138.09	73	0	0
Ordinary Angels	1,529	13,122	-37.33%	13,118	94.85	4	0	0
Love Lies Bleeding	1,202	18,780		18,750		30	0	0
Oppenheimer	1,173	5,810		5,807		3	0	0
American Society	1,089	17,328		17,301		27	0	0
One Life	887	12,988		12,988		0	0	0
Madame Web	871	4,446	-62.54%	4,438	93.17	8	0	0
Poor Things	769	3,407	103.65%	3,407	140.88	0	0	0
Knox Goes Away	729	7,372		7,372		0	0	0
Migration	678	4,802	-49.62%	4,694	110.49	108	0	98
Snack Shack	417	5,611		5,611		0	0	0

 

3/15/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comp

Arthur the King - 46,715 (2,851 TC) (7,271 previews)

 - I Wanna Dance - 49,709 (3,156) (8,569)

 - Easter Sunday - 49,821 (2,846) (7,308)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995) (5,495)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099) (6,173)

 - Devotion - 49,384 (2,483) (5,810)

 

Love Lies Bleeding - 18,780 (1,202 TC) (2,907 previews)

 - Infinite Storm (1,481) (1,669)

 - The Hill - 20,410 (1,500) (2,337)
 - Malcolm's List- 13,255 (917) (1,607)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609) (1,995)

 - Zola - 16,722 (1,379)

 

American Society - 17,328 (1,089 TC) (2,497 previews)

 - Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263) (1,722)

 - Gigi & Nate - 16,776 (1,160) (2,692)

 - Show Me the Father - 15,629 (1,054) (2,072)

 

One Life - 12,988 (887 TC) (1,828 previews)

 - Mrs Harris - 13,334 (935) (1,350)

 - Spencer - 11,579 (840) (1,436)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083) (1,157)

 - Golda - 12,520 (794) (1,860)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Ghostbusters - 70,344 (2,813 TC) (14,750 previews)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647) (14,570)

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (14,546)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812) (12,590)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852) (10,879)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 64,819 (2,899) (13,717)

 

Immaculate - 17,988 (1,251 TC) (1,938 previews)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

 - Antlers - 17,679 (1,504) (2,485)

 - Last Duel - 17,415 (1,888) (2,796)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746) (2,410)

 - She Said - 17,564 (1,504) (2,700)

 

Luca - 7,027 (792 TC)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 12,011 (2,175 TC) (4,536 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 12,645 (2,430) (2,171)

 - Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536) (2,868)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405) (2,116)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - Avatar 2 - 19,029 (2,784) (11,434)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381) (2,499)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Monkey Man - 3,916 (1,715 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,980 (1,646)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - Dungeons & Dragons - 4,074 (959)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 

Someone Like You (OD) - 3,173 (1,512 TC)

 

T-7 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,083 (850 TC)

Fall Guy - 6,764 (1,921 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Ghostbusters: FE	3,428	118,945		106,525		12,420	2,515	0
Kung Fu Panda 4	3,111	64,565	-31.21%	57,956	321.22	6,609	0	6,089
Dune: Part Two	2,901	39,987	-32.57%	37,270	480.68	2,717	2,193	0
Arthur the King	2,781	34,670	-12.10%	34,634	163.41	36	0	0
Imaginary	2,174	27,458	-23.16%	27,455	155.38	3	0	0
Immaculate	2,104	33,647		33,647		0	0	0
Cabrini	1,611	11,992	-54.70%	11,986	106.24	6	0	0
Love Lies Bleeding	1,607	16,020	0.93%	16,008	132.36	12	0	0
Luca	1,230	10,207		10,136		71	0	67
Bob Marley: One Love	1,087	8,634	-57.86%	8,622	111.17	12	0	0
American Society	1,072	7,535	-49.19%	7,532	75.27	3	0	0
Late Night with Devil	975	10,628		10,628		0	0	0
One Life	878	7,985	-28.45%	7,985	131.93	0	0	0
Ordinary Angels	571	3,932	-70.04%	3,932	71.83	0	0	0
The Boy and the Heron	422	2,727		2,727		0	0	0

 

3/22/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

 

Opening Weekend Comp

Ghostbusters - 118,945 (3,428 TC) (20,047 previews)

 - Transformers - 119,071 (3,183) (18,066)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (18,937)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 117,504 (3,243) (16,319)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (14,155)

 - Flash - 116,640 (3,330) (19,339)

 

Immaculate - 33,647 (2,104 TC) (3,198 previews)

 - Blacklight - 33,722 (2,482) (4,369)

 - Antlers - 34,978 (2,572) (4,064)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731) (3,896)

 - X - 34,402 (2,619) (3,298)

 - Men - 31,745 (2,100) (2,948)

 

Late Night with the Devil - 10,628 (975 TC) (1,797 previews)

 - Watcher - 10,477 (732)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - Fablemans - 11,375 (589)

 - Fear - 12,584 (918)

 

Luca (Re-release) - 10,207 (1,230 TC)

 - Jurassic Park (Re-release) - 9,791 (1,183)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Godzilla x Kong - 74,106 (2,729 TC) (25,227 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 70,344 (2,813) (10,534)

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876) (15,524)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647) (28,154)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 117,594 (3,104) (30,356)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901) (14,819)

 

In the Land of Saints and Sinners - 4,462 (293 TC)

 - Fablemans - 4,808 (437)

 - Emily - 4,185 (355)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Monkey Man - 4,215 (1,862 TC)

 - M3GAN - 4,412 (1,837)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Insidious Red Door - 4,665 (1,519)

 

The First Omen - 1,163 (688 TC)

*Regal hasn't posted shows yet

 

Someone Like You (OD) - 3,210 (1,531 TC)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Civil War 4/8 EA - 41

Civil War - 4,400 (1,292 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Monkey Man - 3,916 (1,715)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

 - Cocaine Bear - 4,525 (1,823)

 

Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary) - 1,020 (575 TC)

 

T-6 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,130 (894 TC)

Fall Guy - 7,224 (2,072 TC)

 - Oppenheimer - 5,419 (1,954)

 - Nope - 4,794 (1,157)

 

I've got the Spider-Man re-releases listed in ~275 theaters

[vafrow]

I'm rooting for Monkey Man, but the current low end of the predictions are generally where these solo vengeance films end up. The first John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Violent Night all ended up in that $40-50M range.

 

Something like Bullet Train needed an A lister and strong support cast to get to $100M.

 

I am eager to see how it does closer to release in my market. I don't have much to comp it to, but, my sense is that it should be overindexing here due to the South Asian market. But, it's not always that simple. 

 

[DAJK]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Interesting that you saw stronger sales in ypur area. I've been underindexing huge in mine. I assumed it might have been a Canadian thing, but it might just be local.

 

What's the March Break situation on your side? Were schools closed this week or last week?

This week Spring Break. I took that into account when looking at my Thursday ratios.

[Issac Newton]

$4.7M Frozen Empire

[MightyDargon]

Meh. 4.7 is very slightly better than what I thought but not terribly illuminating for the overall weekend trajectory.

[keysersoze123]

Under indexed at MTC1 unless afterlife number did not include early shows BO. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Under indexed at MTC1 unless afterlife number did not include early shows BO. 

The latter is a possibility though also possible that MTC 3 was underindexing back then and is in better health now.

[Porthos]

Looks like Sacramento underperformed pretty badly.

 

Interestingly enough Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes hit it almost exactly (4.68m).  But literally all of my other comps were low, including Shazam 2 at 4.49m. Probably could go digging through my comps, but no two ways about it, Sacramento was an outlier, even for Q&Ds.

 

Bustin' didn't make Sacramento feel good, I guess.

 

Anyway, well done as usual @charlie Jatinder. 👍

Edited March 22 by Porthos
thought I saw a 4.7 from jeffthehat's Indana numbers but now I can't find it

[jeffthehat]

On 3/20/2024 at 6:11 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-8

Sales	Seats	Shows
953	28352	163

Comps

0.61x Dune 2 T-8 = $6.1m

0.96x Ghostbusters FE T-8 = ??

Indiana

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire T-6

Sales	Seats	Shows
1149	28352	163

Comps

0.68x Dune 2 T-6 = $6.8m

1.13x Ghostbusters FE T-6 = $5.3m

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-1 Friday

300 Showings

2905

+1163

42578

0.902	Transformers T-1	15.21M
0.671	Fast X T-1	13.77M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Emagine Entertainment

T-0 Friday

299 Showings

4379

+1474

42465

0.696	Indiana Jones T-0	11.69M
0.955	Transformers T-0	16.10M
0.751	Fast X T-0	15.40M

 

Adjusted comps:

Transformers T-0	12.43M
Fast X T-0	14.99M

 

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-1 Friday

306 Showings

6550

+1744

41836

ATP:

16.30

1.093

GB Afterlife T-1

13.28M

Ghostbusters Frozen Empire Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

307 Showings

8625

+2075

41765

ATP:

16.04

0.622	Indiana Jones T-0	10.44M
1.068	GB Afterlife T-0	12.97M

 

Adjusted comps:

GB Afterlife T-0

11.66M

 

Numbers are from this morning

[SpiderByte]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Not movie news but:

 

 

Wonder how that's going to work out since that's the weekend Deadpool & Wolverine opens.

It'll probably be very limited. Plus if it's live it might be easier to just squeeze in one showing 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

$4.7M Frozen Empire

On 3/21/2024 at 1:57 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

COMPS

T-0

(0.570x) of Dune 2 $5.30M  

(2.185x) of Argylle $3.72M  

 

Comps average: $4.51M 

 

First win from Florida, i'll take it