BUMBLEBEE | 21 DECEMBER 2018 | The end of the Bayformers Universe

[Barnack]

On 1/3/2019 at 2:16 AM, Hunch said:

"There is only 75 mil budget left to cover"

 

This cost $135 million and definitely over $100 million in marketing. Theatres keep about 50% of the box office take (for a slow burner like this film it's actually more than that).

 

On 1/3/2019 at 3:22 AM, Manny G said:

It’s think many people always forget that part when talking  box office. The longer a movie is in theater the smaller  the studios takes becomes. That’s why opening weekend are so important. 

 

The nuts with the sliding retention rate system almost systematically stopped in the 2000s, the industry became too OW heavy for theater chain to keep it, it tend to be a flat rate now, extreme leggy movie like David Fincher Girls with the dragoon tattoo did not had a worst studio retention share than OW heavy affair release the same year, studios would not love Christmas time that much if that was the case.

 

A bit like theater make their money only from food & beverage, that a bit of a Internet myth the importance of the OW, build from exaggerated truth from the past not longer in play.

 

On 1/3/2019 at 2:16 AM, Hunch said:

It needs to make about $500 million worldwide to break even.

Now I am a bit curious for how much you think the 260m with a 150m P&A transformer needed to do to break even, specially considering this one will be domestic heavier.

 

It depend obviously what is Hasbro deal here (they had first dollar gross in the past, many people had them, Spielberg, Bay, etc... raising the BE point quite a bit), this one seem way more on the low scale.

 

135m net Budget with a 100m WW P&A is almost exactly what the movie Elysium of Matt Damon had if we leave merchandising aside for the Transformer.

 

Elysium with a 125.6m net budget and a 97.8M WW theatrical releasing cost had a estimated break even point by the studio at 219.9m (91.6 dom, 128.3 intl) and a return break  (15.5% ROI) at 348m WW.

Edited January 6, 2019 by Barnack

[Captain Craig]

I'm for sure seeing this on Saturday now and I'm pretty excited. Lots of positive WOM from a number of real world folks I encounter, only one was a bit neutral on it.

Hope it has a good weekend, sub 55% drop would be nice. Should hit $100m by next Tue/Wed I'd guess depending on this weekend. 

[MrGlass2]

And just like that, things are looking much better for this movie: it could do $120M+ in China alone. It also means that a sequel is more likely, if the Chinese distributor is happy enough to offer a similar contract for Bumbletwo.

[TombRaider]

8 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

And just like that, things are looking much better for this movie: it could do $120M+ in China alone. It also means that a sequel is more likely, if the Chinese distributor is happy enough to offer a similar contract for Bumbletwo.

there's no way this will have a sequel, lol.

[MrGlass2]

On 11/25/2018 at 4:01 PM, MrGlass2 said:

Final prediction: $120M DOM, $570M WW.

[Premium George]

14 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Where is this ending WW? If this does, let's say $140-150m in china?

[Godzilla]

Just now, Premium George said:

Where is this ending WW? If this does, let's say $140-150m in china?

Should cross $500 million if it does that much in China. I’d say this movie is successful considering everything seemed to go against it. 

[Zakiyyah6]

It did fine but it's still going to make 100+mil less than The Last Knight. 

[Godzilla]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

It did fine but it's still going to make 100+mil less than The Last Knight. 

Its budget is $80 million less than Last Knight and it’s smaller in scope. It’s almost like comparing Doctor Strange to Civil War. 

[MrGlass2]

31 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Where is this ending WW? If this does, let's say $140-150m in china?

Rating on Maoyan hasn't decreased, still at a solid 9.2, so it could go even higher.

19 hours ago, TombRaider said:

there's no way this will have a sequel, lol.

If it does $150M+ in China and the distributor is again willing to offer $70m for a sequel, you better believe it will happen.

[Premium George]

$500m will definitely mean successful. Due to smaller budget, lifeline of transformer franchise has increased by at least 1 more film. Of course Paramount need more due to their present condition but box office performance is good.

[Jonwo]

I think if Paramount and Hasbro want to revitalise Transformers and perhaps give a leg up to the other Hasbro films, Bumblebee will likely get a sequel 

[fmpro]

22 hours ago, TombRaider said:

there's no way this will have a sequel, lol.

I call your zero and raise you 50%... Chinese handlers are still paying big money to Paramount for producing Transformers movies.. Hasbro also has a big voice..

BO is declining but its still a very lucrative franchise

[MCKillswitch123]

22 hours ago, TombRaider said:

there's no way this will have a sequel, lol.

I dunno about sequel, but I'd say something in the lines of Bumblebee and set in its universe, though centered on other characters and mythology elements instead.

 

Baelee Steinfeld can come back anytime, though.

[MrPink]

I don't know if 500m is happening but 450m should happen and I think that's pretty solid for a spinoff. The problem was that Bumblebee got this huge burden placed on it to reboot the franchise in the process. 

[katniss]

I'm happy for this movie.  It had its weak spots (the storyline, the sidekick dude) but the characters, the visuals, the Bee, and of course Hailee mfing Steinfeld more than made up for it.  I actually cared about both the Bee and Hailee.  Das huge for a TF movie. 

 

 

[Wrath]

Anyone else find it funny that Last Knight did $130m DOM, but if you adjust for inflation, according to BOM, it did...

 

$128M?

 

Inflation isn’t negative these days, right?

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, Wrath said:

$128M?

 

Inflation isn’t negative these days, right?

If you ask for 2018 tickets price it goes to $133M, so yeah possible.

 

According to mojo:

2019	Est.$8.83
2018	$9.14
2017	$8.97
2016	$8.65

 

 

Back to under 2017 average sales price.

 

Movie pass and others services offering only 2D standard ticket type, Tuesday getting bigger and bigger, 3D shares getting smaller and smaller, older retired audience getting bigger and bigger share of the sales with rebate and matinee ?

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Barnack

[MrGlass2]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

Movie pass and others services offering 2D standard ticket type, Tuesday getting bigger and bigger, 3D shares getting smaller and smaller, older retired audience getting bigger and bigger share of the sales with rebate and matinee ? 

Not sure how BOM calculates prices but 2019 adjustment didn't work at all on Jan 1st. Give it a few weeks.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Not sure how BOM calculates prices but 2019 adjustment didn't work at all on Jan 1st. Give it a few weeks.

True we are being ridiculous to look at average price tickets Jan 6.