BUMBLEBEE | 21 DECEMBER 2018 | The end of the Bayformers Universe

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

3 hours ago, Jessie said:

 

I don't need to. I just looked on Box office mojo and the top 20  in those years is very male dominated. So they are wrong lol

 

This doesn't give any indication of averages. Nobody is contesting that there aren't more male-led films at the top, because more male-led films get made than female-led films by nearly a 5:2 ratio. If that ratio were flattened would female-led films still do better than male-led films on average? Perhaps. Perhaps not. That isn't the claim either. Just that on the dynamics for 2014-17, female-led films averaged better for that period.

 

It's data. It isn't 'wrong'. You might argue the "female-led movies DOMINATE" is pushing it a little and ignoring other dynamics, but the data itself is peer reviewed and clearly evidenced.

 

Maybe in 2018 Mortal Engines (if it counts - not sure), Wrinkle in Time and Nutcracker all doing poorly would mean that male-led, big-budget films averaged more than female-led films. Maybe. But I don't know.

 

EDIT: You edited the post to account for the article not stating what it appears that the headline stated. I understand and should probably acknowledge that. This is a problem everyone working in science has all the time: a report comes out with data alongside reasoned and qualified evidence, only for headline writers and controversy spinners to come out and stretch the conclusion as far as possible, removing all qualifying statements and complexities of the data, and then people turn around and blame the people who generated the data and wrote the conclusion rather than the people who wrote the headlines. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Jessie]

5 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

This doesn't give any indication of averages. Nobody is contesting that there aren't more male-led films at the top, because more male-led films get made than female-led films by nearly a 5:2 ratio. If that ratio were flattened would female-led films still do better than male-led films on average? Perhaps. Perhaps not. That isn't the claim either. Just that on the dynamics for 2014-17, female-led films averaged better for that period.

 

It's data. It isn't 'wrong'. You might argue the "female-led movies DOMINATE" is pushing it a little and ignoring other dynamics, but the data itself is peer reviewed and clearly evidenced.

 

Maybe in 2018 Mortal Engines (if it counts - not sure), Wrinkle in Time and Nutcracker all doing poorly would mean that male-led, big-budget films averaged more than female-led films. Maybe. But I don't know.

I was literally just replying to the OP who stated movies starring women do better than male led movies, the article didn't actually say that at all. It was just a click bait bolded header.

[Jonwo]

Bumblebee is good solid fun and a step in the right direction for Paramount and Hasbro.

[Captain Craig]

I've been seeing some more positive WOM reviews by folks on FB about Bumblebee.

Hope this is widespread as I would like it to do well. I'm still working out a time to see it myself. Perhaps with my nephew Sat or next Sun. 

[lilmac]

China will guarantee another spinoff, maybe a direct Bumblebee sequel

[Darth Homer]

Finally got around to seeing this. It was fun, spectacular and full of heart - exactly the sort of Transformers movie I've been waiting to see all these years. It's a shame it isn't doing better at the box office. I think Paramount made a mistake releasing it the same time as Poppins and Aquaman. Hopefully it at least comes close to The Last Knight's BO so we get more of this and not a return to Bayhem.

[DAJK]

I enjoyed this. I think the first transformers is more fun, but this is definitely more wholesome. Lots of seniors at my theatre are coming to see it and enjoying it, so there's that. 

 

Both my friends who I saw this with hated it, which surprised me cause it doesn't seem like a hateable movie at all..

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Solid and heartwarming film. After watching The Last Knight gave me a literal headache nice to see this franchise is capable of so much more. 

 

 

[reddevil19]

On 12/31/2018 at 3:49 AM, lilmac said:

China will guarantee another spinoff, maybe a direct Bumblebee sequel

I think the big question is how its China legs will be. As we all know, China embraced the previous movies to a huge degree. Will the departure from those movies be seen as an improvement there as well? Or will the far smaller amount of action and spectacle compared to the Bayformers mean the audiences end up rejecting it post-OW?

 

Its reception throughout most markets should be encouraging for Paramount so that they use this as a foundation for the rest of the series, away from Bay. BUT... the numbers are not spectacular and if China doesn't like the movie, then that might definitely make them panic a bit. I mean, the deal they have with the Chinese distributors guarantees the movie makes money, but if it's not a crowd-pleaser, they won't get the same deal moving forward...

 

I do hope that regardless of what happens, Paramount doesn't revert to the Bay chaos. Bigger scale, more action is fine for the next movies, but stick with better filmmakers - more coherent stories and editing, mainly.

Edited January 1, 2019 by reddevil19

[MCKillswitch123]

56 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I think the big question is how its China legs will be. As we all know, China embraced the previous movies to a huge degree. Will the departure from those movies be seen as an improvement there as well? Or will the far smaller amount of action and spectacle compared to the Bayformers mean the audiences end up rejecting it post-OW?

  

Its reception throughout most markets should be encouraging for Paramount so that they use this as a foundation for the rest of the series, away from Bay. BUT... the numbers are not spectacular and if China doesn't like the movie, then that might definitely make them panic a bit. I mean, the deal they have with the Chinese distributors guarantees the movie makes money, but if it's not a crowd-pleaser, they won't get the same deal moving forward...

 

I do hope that regardless of what happens, Paramount doesn't revert to the Bay chaos. Bigger scale, more action is fine for the next movies, but stick with better filmmakers - more coherent stories and editing, mainly.

Actually The Last Knight also had a somewhat disappointing performance in China, including poor legs iirc. It still did well there, but it dropped big from Age Of E-stink-tion (we're talking a 100M drop from 4 to 5.... compare to Fate Of The Furious which, while only marginally - by a measly 2 million - increased from Furious 7, and both finished above 390M... yeah, F8te had a 190M OW there, but it still had a multiplier of over 2x as well, which is rare for big opening Hollywood blockbusters in China). I'm sure that if we had more Bayformers, even the Chinese would've eventually grown bored of them. A 6th one surely would have dropped again.

 

We'll see what happens with Bumblebee, though. Me thinks that it will undoubtedly fail to live up to the previous films' numbers, but hopefully it won't be straight up rejected either due to lack of action.

[reddevil19]

Yeah, I think the numbers will inevitably be smaller - more curious in the audience reception (maoyan scores and legs - which can be brutal at the best of times there, but there's brutal, and then there's the laugh out loud drops)

[lilmac]

Bumblebee’s budget is also 1/3 less than the Bayformers. It doesn’t need to match the success of Last Knight. Just get close.

 

$450m WW is my estimated theatrical boxoffice breakeven point (assuming $100m marketing budget). 

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Saw it a second time.I love  this so so much.It is quickly becoming my favorite movie of the year .Defiently one of the best,most heartfelt blockbuaters in years.Paramount i want to see a sequel where Bumblebee and Charlie reunite.DO IT!

Edited January 3, 2019 by TheDarkKnightOfSteel

[Jonwo]

I think Bumblebee deserves a sequel and a sequel set in the 90s could be a lot of fun. 

 

 

[Hunch]

This is kind of flopping. Probably won't get a sequel.

[fmpro]

1 minute ago, Hunch said:

This is kind of flopping. Probably won't get a sequel.

When you have 60 mill locked from china, there is only 75 mill budget left to cover in US and rest of the world. This will make money. Maybe not in theaters but most movies dont anyway. Hasbro has also helped in the past covering the P&A if my memory is correct.

So we have a 175-200 mill total budget. Pretty sure this will make a fair amount of money down the road and with its great WOM a sequel could happen

[Hunch]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

When you have 60 mill locked from china, there is only 75 mill budget left to cover in US and rest of the world. This will make money. Maybe not in theaters but most movies dont anyway. Hasbro has also helped in the past covering the P&A if my memory is correct.

So we have a 175-200 mill total budget. Pretty sure this will make a fair amount of money down the road and with its great WOM a sequel could happen

"There is only 75 mil budget left to cover"

 

This cost $135 million and definitely over $100 million in marketing. Theatres keep about 50% of the box office take (for a slow burner like this film it's actually more than that). It needs to make about $500 million worldwide to break even.

[Manny G]

59 minutes ago, Hunch said:

 Theatres keep about 50% of the box office take (for a slow burner like this film it's actually more than that). 

It’s think many people always forget that part when talking  box office. The longer a movie is in theater the smaller  the studios takes becomes. That’s why opening weekend are so important. 

 

Bumblebee still hasn’t cleared the $100M domestically after being out for more than 2 weeks that’s a problem.

 

also the China deal is the equivalent of selling a movie to Netflix here(forteiting box office revenue and getting a lump sum in exchange)  It’s smart financially but it’s awful for the franchise image especially if the Chinese numbers turn out to be as low as the tracking suggests .

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Hunch said:

"There is only 75 mil budget left to cover"

 

This cost $135 million and definitely over $100 million in marketing. Theatres keep about 50% of the box office take (for a slow burner like this film it's actually more than that). It needs to make about $500 million worldwide to break even.

The studio allready got 60 mill from their chinese partners before it opens. So that leaves 75 mill budget plus 100-125 mill P&A to cover in the rest of the world. 

This was Sony takes a couple of years back OS

 

Market	Retention rate	Profit margin
Japan	47%	15%
South Korea	47%	19%
Germany	 44%	 22%
Spain	44%	 13%
Belgium	43%	26%
Switzerland	42%	 29%
Russia	 42%	 22%
Austria	42%	27%
Italy	41%	11%
Australia	 41%	 22%
Brazil	40%	13%
Netherlands	40%	28%
UK	40%	 23%
France	39%	19%
Average	42%	21%
Mexico	37%	13%
China	25%	21%

 

DOM is 50-55%. In the past Hasbro has chiped in also. 

So im thinking 450 mill breakeven in theaters. But as i wrote to you not many movies breaks even in theaters and rely on WW streaming and TV to make the profit which for a movie like this could be 100-200 mill profit

[Firepower]

Del.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Firepower