The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[dxmatrixdt]

HALLOWEEN SPECIAL - my daily projections for Monday and Tuesday.  Bad Moms 2 is not opening Tuesday night.

 

Name of Movie - (%drop) - (Mon#) - (%increase) - (Tues #) - - - ->>Total #

Jigsaw - (-70.0%) - $1,144,512 - (+100%) - $2,289,024 - $20,073,988

Boo 2! - (-79.6%) - $550,000 - (+81.8%) - 1,000,000 - $37,124,251

HDD - (-71.2%) - $375,000 - (+100%) - $750,000 - $49,499,210

Geostorm (-72.9%) - $500,000 - (+45%) - 725,000 - $25,006,796

Blade Runner (-69.1%) - $400,000 - (+50%) - 600,000 - $82,538,180

 

Thank You For (-65.0%) - $337,622 - (+48.1%) - 500,000 - 4,655,322

Only the Brave (-65.0%) - $344,701 - (+45.1%) - 500,000 - 12,836,853

The Foreigner  (-67.5%) - $337,533 - (+48.1%) - 500,000 - 29,898,284

IT: Chapter One (-66.7%) - $222,354 - (+100%) - 444,708 - 324,535,602

Suburbicon (-65.0%) - $241,639 - (+50%) - 362,459 - 3,444,344

 

Victoria & Abdul (-65.0%) - $175,637 - (+45%) - 254,674 - 18,172,065

American Made (-65.6%) - $160,000 - (+37.5%) - 220,000 - 48,887,805
Kings man 2 - (-69.5%) - $140,000 - (+39.3%) - 195,000 - 97,649,232

Same Kind Different (-61.3%) - $135,000 (+44.4%) - 195,000 - 5,106,427

The Snowman - (-64.0%) - $125,000 (+56%) - 195,000 - 6,119,535

Mountain Between (-64.2%) - $125,000 (+48%) - 185,000 - 28,340,947

Marshall - (-65.8%) - $85,000 - (+35.3%) - 115,000 - 7,149,354

Ninjago (-85%) - $84,410 - (+50%) - 102,615 - 56,630,076

Pony (-85.0%) - $59,256 - (+50%) - 88,884 - 20,199,849

Sexes (-62.4%) - $35,000 - (+20%) - 42,000 - 12,098,590

Flatliners (-64.4%) - $14,000 - (+100%) - 28,000 - 16,757,404

Martson (-60.0%) - $7,676 - (+25%) - 9,595 - 1,545,529

American Assassin (-60%) - $6,808 - (+25%) - 8,510 - 36,122,252

 

[Rumpot]

Last year Ouija and Madea both had strong Halloween Monday boosts such that they fell 47% and 35% respectively into Tuesday while most movies rose. 

This year Halloween promises to be solid since it has multiple great choices (IT, Jigsaw, HDD, Madea, and even the one showing only "Keep Watching").  Even better than that...it actually falls on cheap Tuesday.  I'm very interested to see how it goes because it may be kind of impressive.  I'd note that there has never been a mainstream Halloween go-to movie like IT ever before so it may do very well (of course relative to where it has been)

[grim22]

Deep Wang update:

- Thor at 65-70% of Guardians 2 (no exact point in time comp, have 6 hours before and 6 hours from)

- Bad Moms has exceeded Girls Trip by a lot

- JL increased about 20% since the last update (unfortunately there are no DC comps available till Thursday before release week anymore, so about 10 days to wait for any comps)

- TLJ exceeded 10M (Rogue One had finished at just over 15M)

[keysersoze123]

Spidey did not accelerate until wednesday right? Let us see how things go for Thor 3. 

 

Any comparisons with recent Marvel movies like Civil War or Guardians 2? Since all these movies seem to have similar ratio of PS to OW, it would provide some perspective. 

 

Great for SW8. Can we assume this is like 1/3 of overall PS. SW7 had like 130m of PS by its release. So at this MTC I am assuming it should be at least 1/3 of that. So a good reference of where it ends relatively. 

 

Bad Moms hopefully breaks out big. it will have a leggy run for sure considering the theme. 

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spidey did not accelerate until wednesday right? Let us see how things go for Thor 3. 

 

Any comparisons with recent Marvel movies like Civil War or Guardians 2? Since all these movies seem to have similar ratio of PS to OW, it would provide some perspective. 

 

Great for SW8. Can we assume this is like 1/3 of overall PS. SW7 had like 130m of PS by its release. So at this MTC I am assuming it should be at least 1/3 of that. So a good reference of where it ends relatively. 

 

Bad Moms hopefully breaks out big. it will have a leggy run for sure considering the theme. 

 

We only used to get week before numbers when Deep Wang used to post them. Only recently did we start getting regular updates.

 

Wonder seems to have a really low average ticket price of about 7$. That’s among the lowest I can remember seeing.

[ZeeSoh]

Bad Moms finally showed up on Pulse earlier today

 

Thor

Jigsaw

Bad Moms

Thor 3D

Thor IMAX 3D

 

MT:

 

Thor - 29.4%

Jigsaw - 9.8%

Bad Moms - 8.2%

TLJ - 4.1%

Boo - 4.1%

[MaxAggressor]

Ragnarok's range [(65-70)% of Vol 2] has been fairly consistent for a long time. Zeesoh made a very good comparison earlier between the pre-sales and the final OW from Grim22's data and the correlation was very high with only one outlier (Deadpool).

 

Vol 2's sales were 8.3 against CA:CW's 10 and Vol 2's OW was 81.8% of CA:CW. So if Ragnarok is at the higher end of the range we have seen so far, it can potentially gross 102.6 on OW.

 

OTOH, Deadline updated their projection from 110 million to 125 million for the upper limit of the OW a week before release. That's a very good 13.6% increase from previous numbers. Adding that to the 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure, we'll get around 117 million.

 

This is me purely trying to make a case for Ranarok opening to bigger numbers as I have no idea if Grim22's pre-sales figure will be (or has ever been) off or not. Plus DeeCee and aabattery's projection of the domestic OW based on the OW's of Aus/NZ also seems to point to an OW which is north of 120 million.

 

So let's see if Ragnarok picks up pace in the next few days. Vol 2 must have been no slouch in the final stretch so odds are against Ragnarok atm but great reviews, outstanding performance in social media metrics and more pre-release hype (anecdotal) should bode well for the movie for a very good OW.

[aabattery]

The NZ numbers are definitely skewed upwards by Taika's involvement. Not as good as a comp as it would usually be.

 

Same thing is probably happening Australia, albeit to a lesser degree. It's tricky to quantify by how much they're overperforming though. Guess we'll find out this weekend.

Edited October 31, 2017 by aabattery

[The Panda]

I think Bad Mom's will have a leggy run despite critical reception (unless it's just completely atrocious).

 

It is a countermarket to just about every major release until Pitch Perfect 3.  Compare that to Daddy's Home which is surrounded by family competition (JL, Ragnarok, Coco, Wonder, The Star).  

[Eric Prime]

http://deadline.com/2017/10/a-bad-moms-christmas-kristen-bell-mila-kunis-suzanne-todd-comedy-box-office-renaissance-1202197732/

 

Quote

This coming weekend, STXfilms’ sequel A Bad Moms Christmas is hoping to restore its genre’s commercial viability. In an effort to build up momentum heading into a weekend where Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok is poised to make $100M-$120M, STXfilms is opening A Bad Moms Christmas on Wednesday with tracking pegging the pic at $17M over three-days and $25M over five days. By comparison, Bad Moms made $30.6M in its first five days against Universal’s Jason Bourne. A Bad Moms Christmas is looking forward to getting a boost from Thanksgiving and December audiences as holiday comedies that launch in November have historically reaped a 4x to 5.5x multiple theatrically, with an even richer ancillary life.

 

[Rumpot]

#badmomsxmas is trending on Twitter...

[Frozen]

1 minute ago, Rumpot said:

#badmomsxmas is trending on Twitter...

 

Yeah but it's a paid trend.

[Boxofficerules]

Why are they releasing Bad Moms 2 now? Is it cause they want to beat Daddy’s Home 2?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Why are they releasing Bad Moms 2 now? Is it cause they want to beat Daddy’s Home 2?

Being before daddy home 2 could be a reason I would imagine.

 

The article say that Christmas comedy released in november tend to have huge legs (4.5, 5.5). I imagine that why both those movie do it ?

 

Some precedent of christmas comedy doing well with an early november release:

 

11/7/03, Elf (5.55 multiplier)

11/1/02  The Santa Clause 2 (5.0 multiplier)

 

[Rumpot]

15 minutes ago, Frozen said:

 

Yeah but it's a paid trend.

Some promoted tweets but it is getting hashtagged a lot. Some by conservatives claiming it is attacking Christianity...

[Barnack]

33 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Some promoted tweets but it is getting hashtagged a lot. Some by conservatives claiming it is attacking Christianity...

Should have called it A Bad Mom Holidays instead of Christmas ? 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

Should have called it A Bad Mom Holidays instead of Christmas ? 

 

All or most Christmas movies come out at this time of year.  This is the common time to launch them.  See Home Alone, Grinch, Polar Express, Elf, Santa Clause and so on.

[Rumpot]

3 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

All or most Christmas movies come out at this time of year.  This is the common time to launch them.  See Home Alone, Grinch, Polar Express, Elf, Santa Clause and so on.

I think Barnack was suggesting a title that wouldn't infuriate the ultra-Christian conservatives in response to my post

[langer]

4 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

All or most Christmas movies come out at this time of year.  This is the common time to launch them.  See Home Alone, Grinch, Polar Express, Elf, Santa Clause and so on.

I think you missed the point of @Barnack's post.  He was making a joke about the war on Christmas. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, langer said:

I think you missed the point of @Barnack's post.  He was making a joke about the war on Christmas. 

 

I quoted the wrong post by him.