The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

It's insane how many sellouts Disney Springs has. They have 29 sellouts, and most of them are legit sellouts where you can't buy any tickets  

[Ryan Reynolds]

Most theaters have less seats now with reclining seats

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Christmas TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-winchester-house-ghosts-built/

 

Star Wars: 4,100+

Ferdinand: 3,600

Jumanji: 3,500

Pitch Perfect: 3,400

Greatest Showman: 3,000

Downsizing: 2,900

Father Figures: 2,600

 

No word on Money yet. That's a big TC for Downsizing compared to other Paramount movies like Fences and WOWS.

 

Downsizing is being pushed like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it got over 3,000 theaters in the end.

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Downsizing is being pushed like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it got over 3,000 theaters in the end.

That bottom 3 will implode badly. Under 70M total between the 3.

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

That bottom 3 will implode badly. Under 70M total between the 3.

Downsizing should do "okay." $35-45M total wouldn't be bad for it. It'll make more than Father Figures or All the Money in the World, at least.

[AniNate]

I think Downsizing's going to meet a Promised Land-style fate. They can try to push failed Oscar bait all they want but the bottom line is these kinds of movies are completely at the mercy of critics. 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by tribefan695

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

I think Downsizing's going to meet a Promised Land-style fate. They can try to push failed Oscar bait all they want but the bottom line is they are completely at the mercy of critics now.

To be fair, Promised Land was about the most uninteresting topic you could think of for a movie (fracking). Downsizing has some sci-fi elements that should at least help it avoid going that low.

[AniNate]

I think the sci-fi angle may actually be kind of a turn-off for the target audience. It looks so silly on the surface and the satire apparently doesn't have enough bite to make up for it.

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Downsizing should do "okay." $35-45M total wouldn't be bad for it. It'll make more than Father Figures or All the Money in the World, at least.

It wouldn't be hard for Downsizing to make more than Father Figures, that film's clearly a dump by Warner Bros.

[filmlover]

Yeah, Father Figures is definitely a dud in waiting. I don't think it's even gonna make as much as Did You Hear About the Morgans?, another Christmas comedy bomb.

[Barnack]

11 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I think the sci-fi angle may actually be kind of a turn-off for the target audience. It looks so silly on the surface and the satire apparently doesn't have enough bite to make up for it.

Sci-fi, high concept you can sell in a sentence, nice release date, comedy element, fresh on RT (just 64% but still), big director, a less than 10m a la promised Land would be very surprising, then again Suburbicon did less than Promised Land.

 

Box office pro has it predicted to do :

12/22/2017

Downsizing

$10,000,000

NEW

$59,000,000

NEW

Paramount

 

right now, I can see something like that happening.

 

Alexander payne domestic track record adjusted:

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Sideways	FoxS	$100,523,000	$71,503,593	10/22/04
2	About Schmidt	NL	$96,381,400	$65,016,287	12/13/02
3	The Descendants	FoxS	$93,576,100	$82,584,160	11/16/11
4	Election	Par.	$26,195,900	$14,902,041	4/23/99
5	Nebraska	Par.	$19,545,700	$17,654,912	11/15/13

 

Even Nebraska doubled Promised Land and it really does not have oscar bait feel about that trailer, that purely because of is director award track record that it was in consideration, not really by the movie concept.

[JonathanLB]

1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

I think the sci-fi angle may actually be kind of a turn-off for the target audience. It looks so silly on the surface and the satire apparently doesn't have enough bite to make up for it.

Well, that’ll depend on how you feel about it but I really enjoyed it. It was a very good movie and I’m sure better than most of the awards bait. It had a lot of funny moments and a fantastic concept.

[Eric Prime]

On 12/5/2017 at 11:07 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Ferdinand	40	1065	3.76%
Star Wars	3491	4503	77.53%
Jumanji	57	1846	3.09%
Greatest Showman	6	1562	0.38%

 

After two weeks, the overall traction is...fine, I guess. Jumanji though is at a pretty decent start. (BTW, I'm looking at showtimes for that movie from Wednesday to Monday)

Ferdinand	58	1257	4.61%
Star Wars	4035	6194	65.14%
Jumanji	76	1846	4.12%
Greatest Showman	13	1562	0.83%
Fifty Shades	57	1921	2.97%

 

Traction continues to do well, with just about everything, especially with Ferd and SW gaining more showtimes.

[Porthos]

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: T-6 days

 

Previews: 31/132 (+1/+0) [R1: 7/107 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 26/88 (+0/+0) [R1: 5/70]

3D: 5/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

13 (+2) [R1: 3]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (-1) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

28 (nc) [R1: 19]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

[Mojoguy]

Downsizing should have been called "Honey, We Shrunk The Damon" instead.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Mojoguy

[Deja23]

MT:

TLJ 26.2%

Coco 14.7%

Disaster Artist 7%

Wonder 6.9%

JL 5.8%

[TwoMisfits]

Gonna try to guess my 2 locals line-ups for Star Wars weekend:)...we'll see if this is close...

 

1st local (Centreville)

Star Wars (4, I think - they only have 3 now, but I think they'll add at least one b/c of how sold it is)

Ferdinand (1)

Coco (1)

JL (1)

Wonder (1)

Daddy's Home 2/Just Getting Started (1 - split with DH2 getting more showings)

The Star/3 Billboards (1 - split - The Star keeping 1st 2 shows and 3 Billboards getting rest)

Thor/MOE (1 - split - Thor getting 1st show and splitting on and off through day)

 

I've got 1 left for the foreign films or more Star Wars - I think they finally let Bad Mom's Xmas go and all the foreign films they have this week, but they may bring another one in...

 

2nd local (Regal)

Star Wars (4, I think - they only have 2 now, but I think they double it)

Ferdinand (1)

The Disaster Artist/Just Getting Started split (1 - JGS getting 1 or 2 shows, tops - JGS could split with Thor and Disaster Artist could keep a full, but I haven't followed its performance here) 

Coco (1)

JL (1)

Wonder (1) 

Thor (1) - I think this is holding too well to drop off a full screen here...but I won't be surprised to be wrong:)

The Star/Lady Bird /MOE split (1 - The Star with 1st 2 shows and Lady Bird/MOE splitting last 4)

DH2 /3 Billboards split (1)

 

I don't have this location dropping anything for Star Wars, but doing what they did when the Nov onslaught came out and keeping like 6 movies all with a few showings and then dropping the following week whatever didn't sell for the Dec 22 openers...

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Gonna try to guess my 2 locals line-ups for Star Wars weekend:)...we'll see if this is close...

 

1st local (Centreville)

Star Wars (4, I think - they only have 3 now, but I think they'll add at least one b/c of how sold it is)

Ferdinand (1)

Coco (1)

JL (1)

Wonder (1)

Daddy's Home 2/Just Getting Started (1 - split with DH2 getting more showings)

The Star/3 Billboards (1 - split - The Star keeping 1st 2 shows and 3 Billboards getting rest)

Thor/MOE (1 - split - Thor getting 1st show and splitting on and off through day)

 

I've got 1 left for the foreign films or more Star Wars - I think they finally let Bad Mom's Xmas go and all the foreign films they have this week, but they may bring another one in...

 

2nd local (Regal)

Star Wars (4, I think - they only have 2 now, but I think they double it)

Ferdinand (1)

The Disaster Artist/Just Getting Started split (1 - JGS getting 1 or 2 shows, tops - JGS could split with Thor and Disaster Artist could keep a full, but I haven't followed its performance here) 

Coco (1)

JL (1)

Wonder (1) 

Thor (1) - I think this is holding too well to drop off a full screen here...but I won't be surprised to be wrong:)

The Star/Lady Bird split (1 - The Star with 1st 3 shows and Lady Bird with last 2)

DH2 /3 Billboards split (1)

 

I don't have this location dropping anything for Star Wars, but doing what they did when the Nov onslaught came out and keeping like 6 movies all with a few showings and then dropping the following week whatever didn't sell for the Dec 22 openers...

 

 

 

 

This is what I'm thinking for my 12plex:

 

Biggest: Star Wars 2D/3D (Confirmed)

2nd Biggest: Star Wars 2D/3D (Confirmed)

Averages: Star Wars 3D (Confirmed), Star Wars, Ferdinand 2D/3D, Coco, Wonder, Just Getting Started

4th Smallest: Justice League

3rd Smallest: Thor

2nd Smallest: Orient Express/Daddy's Home

Smallest: Lady Bird/Three Billboards

Gone: The screen splitting Coco and JL's 3D shows, The Star/MBU, Bad Moms 

 

I won't be surprised if Coco, Wonder, and JGS have their nighttime showings scrapped for more Star Wars, and anything in the smaller auditoriums (especially the two smallest) are prime contenders to have showings cancelled during the day.

[FantasticBeasts]

3 hours ago, Deja23 said:

MT:

TLJ 26.2%

Coco 14.7%

Disaster Artist 7%

Wonder 6.9%

JL 5.8%

TFA/RO at the same point?

@ReyReyBattery

[aabattery]

6 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

TFA/RO at the same point?

@ReyReyBattery

 

No exact TFA comps for today as far as I can tell. Would've been around the low 50's though.

 

Rogue One:

 

MT:

Office Christmas Party- 16%

Rogue One- 15.1%

Moana- 13.8%

Manchester by the Sea- 7.9%

Fantastic Beasts- 7.4%