The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

happy death days opens tomorrow

 

 

I am pretty sure it will open at at least 7pm today. If not earlier

[MaxAggressor]

https://deadline.com/2019/02/alita-happy-death-day-2u-presidents-weekend-box-office-1202555046/

 

Currently, many are figuring that it’s a close call between Alita and Happy Death Day 2U, with each pic’s respective 3-day openings ranging between $18M-$22M and $17M-$20M.

 

New Line has the Rebel Wilson romantic comedy Isn’t It Romantic opening tomorrow sans previews tonight. The Todd Strauss-Schulson directed comedy is about a young woman who is disenchanted with love and mysteriously finds herself trapped inside a romantic comedy. At 3,300 sites, Romantic looks to pull in $22M over six days.

[Litio]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

I am pretty sure it will open at at least 7pm today. If not earlier

Source? I don't see any previews for it.

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

I am pretty sure it will open at at least 7pm today. If not earlier

i tough it won't have previews... but $ 17 - 20M it's great for this

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

17 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

I am pretty sure it will open at at least 7pm today. If not earlier

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

 

Looking like a negative on previews of any sort for Happy Death day or Isn’t it Romantic 

[nevermore]

51 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2019/02/alita-happy-death-day-2u-presidents-weekend-box-office-1202555046/

 

Currently, many are figuring that it’s a close call between Alita and Happy Death Day 2U, with each pic’s respective 3-day openings ranging between $18M-$22M and $17M-$20M.

 

New Line has the Rebel Wilson romantic comedy Isn’t It Romantic opening tomorrow sans previews tonight. The Todd Strauss-Schulson directed comedy is about a young woman who is disenchanted with love and mysteriously finds herself trapped inside a romantic comedy. At 3,300 sites, Romantic looks to pull in $22M over six days.

Studio sources say the pic cost $160M-$170M net before P&A, but our finance people are telling us it’s way higher — like $237M

 

Interesting tidbit

 

[DAJK]

26 minutes ago, nevermore said:

Studio sources say the pic cost $160M-$170M net before P&A, but our finance people are telling us it’s way higher — like $237M

 

Interesting tidbit

 

insane budget for Isn't It Romantic

[MattW]

25 minutes ago, nevermore said:

Studio sources say the pic cost $160M-$170M net before P&A, but our finance people are telling us it’s way higher — like $237M

 

Interesting tidbit

 

237 seems high without some major participations and I don't think Rodriguez has the cache for that. Before tax credits maybe?

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, nevermore said:

Studio sources say the pic cost $160M-$170M net before P&A, but our finance people are telling us it’s way higher — like $237M

 

Interesting tidbit

 

That's a huge whisper number; it's practically shouting.  Even bigger than the $200m high end that was being tossed around by the Trades.

 

 

[el sid]

Pulse yesterday 8:35-8:49 EST:

Isn't It Romantic: 13/15 minutes
Happy Death Day 2U: 9/15 - because both movies are released on Wednesday I'm not sure with which day of older movies I should compare them so I just post the numbers e.g. to compare them with that of Alita
Alita: 18/15 minutes - released on Thursday so here I compare it with the Tuesday number of e.g. Mortal Engines which was 5/15

Pulse yesterday 10:35-10:50 EST:

 

Isn't It Romantic: 20/15 minutes

Happy Death Day 2U: 10/15 
Alita: 44/15 minutes - Mortal Engines had on Tuesday 7/15
 

And Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

Isn't It Romantic: 25/15 minutes
Happy Death Day 2U: 17/15

Alita: 39/15 minutes - Mortal Engines had on Wednesday 17/15

And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:

 

Isn't It Romantic: 63/15 minutes

Happy Death Day 2U: 17/15 - surprisingly low, OTOH it's probably a walk up film and it's a Wednesday release and it was mentioned that this movie and HDD2U have no previews today which could partly explain the low numbers
Alita: 86/15 minutes - I have no ME numbers at that time (ME had 33/15 on Thursday and Alita will very probably be far over 100 tomorrow) but e.g. The Kid Who Would be King had 17/15. Of course Alita has Early Fan Event shows but because they only represent 1/10 of all sold tickets I don't count them separatly and interest in a film is interest.

PS: Last week our presale, theater and buzz reports are not to blame that many user (including me) predicted too high weekend numbers. E.g. I was dumb enough to add 10M from potential walk ups to Lego 2 although I had it at only 36.5M compared to the presales of The Grinch and Ralph II and the theater reports didn't look overwhelming either. Same with What Men Want, there I added 5M even if it didn't even reach the presale numbers of The Upside. But now I'm looking forward to Alita. It has just to continue its so far fine performance .

Edited February 12, 2019 by el sid

[Napoleon]

5 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

It would be hilarious if Isnt It Romantic was a massive hit stateside as they’ve decided to send it to Netflix in the UK, Warner probably regretting that.

Depending on how much Netflix paid, it may have been a great deal for WB/New Line still. Romantic comedies are not doing much overseas. Crazy Rich Asians and How to Be Single made around $65 million overseas each.

 

Looking at the money Netflix has been throwing around for original content, it wouldn't surprise me if they've paid more for the international rights of Isn't It Romantic than WB/NL would have made in profit from ticket sales overseas minus the cost of releasing it in theaters.

 

And it's also really good for the movie, because it will certainly reach a much bigger audience, as original romantic comedies on Netflix seem to be doing really well in viewership.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So these are only opening night numbers? I thought it's opening Friday.

 

In that case, even if it do 48% of IW, i.e. $19mn Approx, will give Opening day of $65mn plus. Though it shall be $20mn plus with this ratio as IW was well IW.

 

From there, 65-70 + 55-60 + 45-50 = 165-180.

 

BATB Be Prepared.

Problem is, CM is not guaranteed to keep doing 48% of IW the rest of the pre-sale window.  There's still a chance for CM to pull a Solo/FB2 and stall out completely and simply never get the high octane boost that some films get in their last week of pre-sales.  If everything falls apart,  around 130 OW (or worse) is still very much in the cards.  

 

Like, if CM gets tepid reviews I highly doubt it will get the rocket liftoff BP got after its world premiere.  Speaking of the world premiere, it appears the world premiere for CM will be March 4th, with full reviews not being released until the 5th at 6am PST (one can thank the Oscars for this, more than likely).  That means even with the social media embargo lifting around the same time as BP (see below) it simply isn't the same circumstance as a out-of-this-world buzz after a smashing world premiere sixteen days before release Stateside.  We'not talking apples and oranges here.  More like apples and celery. Or apples and tomatoes.  

 

On the other hand, it's been confirmed that the social media embargo lifts on Feb 19th at 9:30pm PST.  So there should be some buzz, positive, negative, or tepid, coming out of that.

 

I bring this up to point out that each movie's pre-sale run is different.  I know, I know, "like duh, obviously".  But, no, really... EACH MOVIE'S PRE-SALE RUN IS DIFFERENT.    When premieres happen.  When embargoes are dropped.  How marketing is played out.  Even right down to how theaters decide to roll out their advance schedule.

 

====

 

So why do all of this?  Well some information is better than none.  Just don't over-read into it.  Think of it more like a range of possibility that continues to shrink as the premiere date gets closer and closer.

Edited February 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, MattW said:

237 seems high without some major participations and I don't think Rodriguez has the cache for that. Before tax credits maybe?

They set net in the paragraph, strongly implying $237m net.

 

It is definitely on the high end for a project like that, but so was $170M in a way, Cameron at Fox has the cache for that, like when Heyman got to make a Gravity at WB, producers-studio relation can give budget.

 

57 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Looking at the money Netflix has been throwing around for original content, it wouldn't surprise me if they've paid more for the international rights of Isn't It Romantic than WB/NL would have made in profit from ticket sales overseas minus the cost of releasing it in theaters.

Intl profit tend to be in international tv deal, making the sell to netflix probably quite comparable to other intl sales. They certainly paid more than expected just theatrical profits they are a small part of intl profits.

 

 

[Poseidon]

So quality doesn't seem to have pushed WB to selling it overseas. Reviews are quite decent, especially female critics seem to like the movie.
 

[Deep Wang]

[Deep Wang]

HDD2U - 124k

IIR - 282k

A - 1m

 

HTTYD3 - 286k

 

CM - 3.4m

Edited February 12, 2019 by Deep Wang
forgot one

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

A - 1m

[Litio]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

HDD2U - 124k

IIR - 282k

A - 1m

 

CM - 3.4m

I knew it

[Boxofficerules]

15 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

HDD2U - 124k

IIR - 282k

A - 1m

 

CM - 3.4m

Those numbers good or bad?

[chuck0]

On 2/4/2019 at 6:51 PM, Deep Wang said:

@IronJimbo  @JamesCameronScholar

 

Alita's presales are actually pretty good!  Since presales double the week of, lets just assume this is going to do at least 500k - that means that of the films I have data for, this would put it right between Emoji Movie and Orient Express.  Those opened to 24m and 28m respectively.  Next up would be Jumanji's 569k/36m opening weekend.

 

HOWEVER - the funny thing is that those aren't great comps in terms of films, just that they had similar presale/OW numbers.  The best comp to Alita on my list is Valerian which was right above Jumanji with 630k in presales but only scored a 17m OW.  😬

sooo.... it went to 1m? do you have a comparison that matches? Man i really hope that this is not a blip and ends up similar to Valerian! (though i mean even when using that and adjusting, it would open quite a bit above current tracking)

Edited February 12, 2019 by chuck0